CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Ice storms require a great deal of balance. In addition to being destructively beautiful, they are also very delicate systems. You need the WAA and latent heating of freezing to be offset by CAD and latent cooling of evaporation. Or in the case of 2008, just enough wind to carry away all that latent heat. KPDX was a learning example of what a temp of 32/24 with 20-30kts of wind can do for accretion. Localized wetbulbing big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 That LLJ is a beast. Anytime you start getting U wind anomalies of -5SD that's pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: That LLJ is a beast. Anytime you start getting U wind anomalies of -5SD that's pretty impressive. NAM shows 60 - 70 mph wind gusts over NJ / LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: NAM shows 60 - 70 mph wind gusts over NJ / LI Yeah it does. We'll see how effective the mixing is but it's a decent setup for 50 knot+ winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Not many would trade snow for wind and cf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not many would trade snow for wind and cf. Will make the rain more fun...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Wind threats from winter coastals are generally voodoo around here except the exposed coastline...too much inversion to mix anything down of note. You need something crazy like the Feb 2010 retro bomb to get anything inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 At least James will get to run the gale warning flag up the pole . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 This trend is going the wrong way, We need the low down south to get further east not west, The block needs to be more stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Ice storms require a great deal of balance. In addition to being destructively beautiful, they are also very delicate systems. You need the WAA and latent heating of freezing to be offset by CAD and latent cooling of evaporation. Or in the case of 2008, just enough wind to carry away all that latent heat. Those explanations help me to understand how, with very similar temps and precip to ORH in 2008, we (thankfully) had only 0.2" glaze. So far, most of the foothills have dodged recent huge ice storms by being a tad colder and getting predominately IP. Happened in 1998, when my 0.8-acre houselot, about half in house/lawn/garden, suffered more overall breakage than did my 62-acres of forest in New Sharon. Same thing with the lesser but still significant pre-Christmas event in 2013. May the streak continue. As a weenie I appreciate the beauty and drama of big ice; as a forester my loathing cannot be overstated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just nosing into the southern Cali coast ... immediately, storm morphology down stream in the east - ...seen it too often to buy the modeler claims that it doesn't matter any more. I'm sure the opposite bears out in their statistics ...in one way or the other ... but it doesn't bear out in the razor thin tolerances that characterize events down stream. This NAM solution is deeper overall ... probably owing to more dynamical power being assessed coming off the Pacific - it physically warrants the model cores out the 500 mb surface some additional 6 to 10 dm out east by hour 72 to 84, which is a rather significant/abruptly deeper depiction over previous consistency. Sorry, that's sampling doing that - it has to be. It's like we keep getting talked into believing one thing, than have to experience something else... deny our eyes...and then believe the talk all over again. Interesting.. Well, whatever the cause, there are definite system morphologies happening now that the physical relay is actually taking place off the Pacific - whether that is entirely coincidental or not... prooobably doesn't matter as much as the fact that the morphology is taking place. One thing I will note ... Scott and I were commenting the other day that this was all coming off the Pac in an unusual way..almost W-E trajectory at an unusually low latitude... Not sure if that my lend to increased error too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 27 minutes ago, CT Rain said: That LLJ is a beast. Anytime you start getting U wind anomalies of -5SD that's pretty impressive. Not nearly as slow a mover looking at 200 mb as compared to a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: This trend is going the wrong way, We need the low down south to get further east not west, The block needs to be more stout. The southern energy is also wrapping up a bit more tight which isn't good...it brings the best forcing inland down to our south...so that isn't helping either. Despite that, this run is actually slightly colder at 84 hours vs the 06z run because the high is a bit better to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 My basement is going to flood like a mofo...I've escaped that for the most part this past year to the damaging extreme drought High PWAT storms coming in from this angle with the winds are brutal...water just runs down my foundation and gets in whatever crack it can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 GFS also harping 50+ mph winds into NJ/NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Dave Epstein approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Nice scalping over the interior at 84h. ULL eventually tracks too far west though to keep it frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Heh', depending on how you look at it, ice storms don't really work out for anybody. exactly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 A nice 2:1 ratio sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The southern energy is also wrapping up a bit more tight which isn't good...it brings the best forcing inland down to our south...so that isn't helping either. Despite that, this run is actually slightly colder at 84 hours vs the 06z run because the high is a bit better to the north. Southern stream s/w's have been quite dominant all winter so its no real shock that this may stem wind further down south which pulls everything further west and warms us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wind threats from winter coastals are generally voodoo around here except the exposed coastline...too much inversion to mix anything down of note. You need something crazy like the Feb 2010 retro bomb to get anything inland. Fraud element. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Southern stream s/w's have been quite dominant all winter so its no real shock that this may stem wind further down south which pulls everything further west and warms us up here. S stream dominance in a la nina winter...gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I would trade places in a heartbeat if two years ago I shoveled 30"+ and took swan dives off my roof as a deform band massaged my groin for hours. yup, and unlike feb 13 they got to see it all in broad daylight! maybe different for you but jan 11 storm didn't produce any incredible rates during the day either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 So far the 12z defining final idea storm wise and we are 0-2. 3 more plate appearances from the big 3 before the tarp comes out and the game is called for rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 GGEM is keeping the thing more offshore...almost a Dec '92 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Wow at the 925mb winds on NAM for coastal SNE. May be difficult to mix any of that down, but maybe if there's some convective elements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is keeping the thing more offshore...almost a Dec '92 look. Thats the direction we need to be with this for more frozen, The GGEM was further east, Now if we can get the Euro to move in that direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is keeping the thing more offshore...almost a Dec '92 look. Now we are 1-3..staving off the tarp as the rain tapers to drizzle.. 2 more at bats left .. top of the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Now we are 1-3..staving off the tarp as the rain tapers to drizzle.. 2 more at bats left .. top of the 8th Too bad Mo is retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Both these solutions and watching the TV make me want to projectile vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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