mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, wx2fish said: slightly, but the mean is below freezing for you the whole time and you too? 12z will be interesting to see ifwe are starting to trend weaker block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Everyone is focused on snow, but for far interior up through CNE and NNE...it could be a high impact event from other ptypes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Noyes says everyone flips to rain Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The airmass gets replaced with marginal CP (continental polar) air and I think you are a lock for temps below 32 for awhile. I am sure you are looking at model srfc temp output (which is cold on the euro), but as you know...your spot is good to lock in the cold, so situational awareness tells me to take 'em down for your area. At least as of right now. GFS looks lost in this as it has no icea where to put low pressure. The NAM just went non-hydrostatic and is tossed. thanks. 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Mike there is a cold front slipping down from the north on Sat eve I think. It ain't below average but it is cold enough for us. May not be a big snowstorm, but should be a big winter storm. You should not get sucked into the SNE perspective on storms...to our s and e this ain't looking great, so thus more of a negative vibe. Still very interesting out your way and up my way. Lets see what 12z holds. Was the qpf still well over an inch for all? I'll keep that in mind, though i do view myself as sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Yes the zones up here have always had us changing to rain on Tuesday. But we'll see...doesn't look like a big warmup so even if we go to plain rain our pack is probably preserved. But i'm not convinced on plain rain for any significant part of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'd color you skeptical regardless of what happened Tuesday lol. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: thanks. I'll keep that in mind, though i do view myself as sne. You are far NW mass not too far from VT right? You are interior CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Noyes says everyone flips to rain Tuesday You hump him at least as much as I hump WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: You are far NW mass not too far from VT right? You are interior CNE yes. But let's not derail the thread on the definitions of cne/sne/nne again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Scott is the voice of reason. Hopefully the GFS put too much emphasis on that initial surge of moisture it basically formed a initial low that cut west and the main storm was disorganized and west. Even the more steadfast EPS was slight west and warmer with the mean track and in an area like Kevin and myself it makes a difference. Hopefully we trend back the other way today but odds favor GC and CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Scott is the voice of reason. Hopefully the GFS put too much emphasis on that initial surge of moisture it basically formed a initial low that cut west and the main storm was disorganized and west. Even the more steadfast EPS was slight west and warmer with the mean track and in an area like Kevin and myself it makes a difference. Hopefully we trend back the other way today but odds favor GC and CNE/NNE. Was hoping the trends yesterday were right and we could at least get some snow or at the least some kind of a mix. Now it seems totally rain for CT. Sometimes these trend east the last 24 hours but I'm not sure that would really help us. Then you have the folks who are in a good place complaining about snow to a mix but staying all frozen while some of us would kill for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 dizzy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Was hoping the trends yesterday were right and we could at least get some snow or at the least some kind of a mix. Now it seems totally rain for CT. Sometimes these trend east the last 24 hours but I'm not sure that would really help us. Then you have the folks who are in a good place complaining about snow to a mix but staying all frozen while some of us would kill for that. Things could change at 12z today too. I would wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Was hoping the trends yesterday were right and we could at least get some snow or at the least some kind of a mix. Now it seems totally rain for CT. Sometimes these trend east the last 24 hours but I'm not sure that would really help us. Then you have the folks who are in a good place complaining about snow to a mix but staying all frozen while some of us would kill for that. I wouldn't lock anything in yet. Euro didn't trend favorably with block but its still pretty close to something bigger. Even without snow id worry about ZR and IP over interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 25 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: yes. But let's not derail the thread on the definitions of cne/sne/nne again! Yea, Save the derailing for sticking forks at systems at 72hr leadtime. Wasnt it last night that you said youre not investing until inside 48hr anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't lock anything in yet. Euro didn't trend favorably with block but its still pretty close to something bigger. Even without snow id worry about ZR and IP over interior. Well from reading here it seemed like all frozen was north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 This is going to be an awesome 34-35 F rain storm for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well from reading here it seemed like all frozen was north and west. Nobody said that, but obviously you may not be in the best spot. You ask for answers to questions we really can't nail down accurately yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I hate this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I mean the signal is there for decent probabilities of freezing rain on the analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean the signal is there for decent probabilities of freezing rain on the analogs. High is pretty classic for ZR...got the dry polar feed to offset latent heating. Could be a scalp fest too and even snowier...guess we'll have to wait and see how that block trends. That's still the key for this I believe...down south will have a say too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I hope he gets his ice storm and it is just a chilly soaking rain here, this one is for the birds....this isn't a pattern where high pressures are winning the battle I just hope they get crushed in the north but I worry this trends to a modest thump up there before mixing and changing over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Really hope it doesn't transition to a largely freezing rain threat...may as well be severe weather to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Really hope it doesn't transition to a largely freezing rain threat...may as well be severe weather to me. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, codfishsnowman said: agreed That never works out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That never works out here. Heh', depending on how you look at it, ice storms don't really work out for anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Heh', depending on how you look at it, ice storms don't really work out for anybody. I just want a large precipitation event to be something other than rain here. Been about exactly two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 What the hell is going on in here? Its like a funeral home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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