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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well I guess I read soundings wrong as they had only sleet. I was told warm was too deep.

Eh, verbatim there's a marginal layer at 800mb...but I'm not really parsing that type of detail. Mostly just looking at the synoptics. You'll literally go insane sweating 0.6C in a sounding. My guess is that would cool as we got closer if we're still staring at a closed 500mb anticyclone over Quebec

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Eh, verbatim there's a marginal layer at 800mb...but I'm not really parsing that type of detail. Mostly just looking at the synoptics. You'll literally go insane sweating 0.6C in a sounding. My guess is that would cool as we got closer if we're still staring at a closed 500mb anticyclone over Quebec

This was exactly the point I made earlier but Scott Ryan and Chris said I was wrong. Can't keep up

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly could care less about those runs. I thought nam was fine inland.

Maybe this is a classic '92-'93 storm where there's a decent chunk of snow but also some good ole fashioned sleet/ZR mixed in too....seems like those storms with larger mix transition zones have been more absent recently. 

 

The setup kind of reminds me of this storm:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us0304.php

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

May this is a classic '92-'93 storm where there's a decent chunk of snow but also some good ole fashioned sleet/ZR mixed in too....seems like those storms with larger mix transition zones have been more absent recently. 

 

The setup kind of reminds me of this storm:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us0304.php

Give me 9 days later.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well you keep bouncing between models. The Euro wasn't 0.6C, and really neither is the NAM, but it's a shallower warm layer than the Euro. 

Euro sounding at 0Z Tuesday was indeed 0.6 but it doesn't matter. NAM sounding is 70 mb thick according to that sounding. I will check out cross sections but anyways seems to me that Will is correct in stating that it looks like an interior Mass thump on the NAM

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro sounding at 0Z Tuesday was indeed 0.6 but it doesn't matter. NAM sounding is 70 mb thick according to that sounding. I will check out cross sections but anyways seems to me that Will is correct in stating that it looks like an interior Mass thump on the NAM

 

When we're talking models, it's easy to conflate the general setup with verbatim talk...so verbatim, the NAM is sleet, but I'm def thinking snowier in my mind if I was forecasting the storm and that was the guidance I was staring at. Synoptically on that solution, there is an easy way to cool the column when you have a really stout closed off anticyclone in the mid-levels over Quebec...classic case where a model with underestimate the drain of dry polar air on the east side of it.\ and it only needs to be a fraction too warm in order to get a lot more snow. If I was staring at that sounding and the map showed a high sliding off the coast with only a weak sig in the mid-levels, I'd be thinking this will porobably flip faster than guidance shows...or at least it probably won't be colder than it shows.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

When we're talking models, it's easy to conflate the general setup with verbatim talk...so verbatim, the NAM is sleet, but I'm def thinking snowier in my mind if I was forecasting the storm and that was the guidance I was staring at. Synoptically on that solution, there is an easy way to cool the column when you have a really stout closed off anticyclone in the mid-levels over Quebec...classic case where a model with underestimate the drain of dry polar air on the east side of it.\ and it only needs to be a fraction too warm in order to get a lot more snow. If I was staring at that sounding and the map showed a high sliding off the coast with only a weak sig in the mid-levels, I'd be thinking this will porobably flip faster than guidance shows...or at least it probably won't be colder than it shows.

Think the stout easterly wind flow is a contributing factor?

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro sounding at 0Z Tuesday was indeed 0.6 but it doesn't matter. NAM sounding is 70 mb thick according to that sounding. I will check out cross sections but anyways seems to me that Will is correct in stating that it looks like an interior Mass thump on the NAM

Well those x-sects looked warmer than that. But regardless, it's about what the forecast is not what the NAM or Euro shows. I happen to broadly like a cooling trend (I reserve the right to change my mind when I really dig in tomorrow), but verbatim that was a thick layer to overcome.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Think the stout easterly wind flow is a contributing factor?

Def in the low levels...no way ORH is like 34 at the sfc on the NAM solution in reality...models are almost always too geostrophic at the sfc. But it's possible it's also affecting mid-levels too...esp if it's not dry enough in the source region.

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