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Big Noreaster Rain/wind/wet snow thread 1/22-1/23


Ji

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

00z RGEM has 2-3 inches of rain around tomorrow 

In central VA, but it looks to me more like 1-2 inches near the cities.  Either way, it's showing more than most other models. 

The GFS is still calling for 25+ MPH sustained winds across most of Maryland east of DC tomorrow.

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This mornings 12K NAM was a nice little surprise this morning especially for those in the northern portion of MD.  It is pretty close to the evolution we want to see with the low off the coast if we hope to see snow. And unlike previous snowfall maps, which were nothing more then fake digital snow, this snowfall map seems to be fairly realistic with the setup and temps now being shown. The Kuchera output also closely matches this snowfall map. Now whether the NAM is right is another story.

nam_3hr_snow_acc_ma_13_75.png

 

 

 

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from 4am...

Lastly, some wintry precipitation could develop late this afternoon
through tonight across the higher terrain of W MD, WV, and VA as the
column continues to cool. Some uncertainty remains as to when this
occurs...and the type of wintry precipitation. Could be a period of
sleet/freezing rain as low levels cool slightly faster than mid-
levels. Increased snow totals a bit to account for greater faster
cooling of the column...though...any accumulations will initially be
hampered by warm ground temperatures. Generally 1-2 inches at the
higher elevations with less than an inch elsewhere...though a few
isolated spots at higher elevations could pick up a bit more.
&&

 

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The models have struggled severely with this storm. I think they are still catching up and this is essentially a nowcast. Im in S NJ on the coast and every model had steady rain developing last night as little lead time as 6 hours yesterday. Still no rain. Storm is slowwwwww moving. Not bad for no true block in place. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WTF!!?? I've been out of the country for a week but I thought this was not even close.

I have been quietly watching it trend the right direction all week.  Sometimes in a one step forward 1/2 step back kind of way but the general trend for a long time has been a slow improvement overall run after run.  Perhaps because it started off as such a bad look and because the trend better was so incremental it went unnoticed.  That said I still think its likely mostly rain, and in the cities would still be shocked in there was any accumulation, but it looks like places NW with some elevation could possibly back door their way to a measurable event.  Crap the 3k Nam gives me a foot of snow, not buying that at all but one can dream I guess.  

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