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January 23rd-24th Storm Threat


Rjay

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I usually wouldn't start a thread for a day 5/6 storm but it's been pretty well modeled for days.  This storm has the potential to bring heavy rains, strong winds and significant coastal flooding to the members of this subforum.  There's even a chance inland areas could see some snow.  This storm should have an awesome moisture fetch and could feature record pwat's for this time of the year.   If you live in coastal areas I'd pay close attention to this one.  There's lots to still be worked out, so discuss away.

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gfs_pwat_mslp_noram_24.png

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gfs_mslp_uv10g_nyc_23.png

gfs_mslp_uv10g_nyc_24.png

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I think this trends colder, it's going to really redevelop off the coast of cape hatteras because systems like these can make its own cold air. They tend to almost stall off the cape hatteras and really develop into huge storms...like many of the models depict it. It already trended colder on most of the models and if you think about it it's been a bit colder than modeled lately so let's see if that trend continues. Also we need that high to move in southwest a bit faster cause there is cold air now with that high just need it about 12-24 hours earlier. Not to mention it's January and a low placement seems to be just southeast of Atlantic City which is ideal for a bad ass nor'easter that could even produce heavy snow into to the coast. We just need that high move in faster and that'll stall the storm even more snowing it out on top of us. Plenty of time left...

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3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I think this trends colder, it's going to really redevelop off the coast of cape hatteras because systems like these can make its own cold air. They tend to almost stall off the cape hatteras and really develop into huge storms...like many of the models depict it. It already trended colder on most of the models and if you think about it it's been a bit colder than modeled lately so let's see if that trend continues. Also we need that high to move in southwest a bit faster cause there is cold air now with that high just need it about 12-24 hours earlier. Not to mention it's January and a low placement seems to be just southeast of Atlantic City which is ideal for a bad ass nor'easter that could even produce heavy snow into to the coast. We just need that high move in faster and that'll stall the storm even more snowing it out on top of us. Plenty of time left...

Agree

Good post

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6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I think this trends colder, it's going to really redevelop off the coast of cape hatteras because systems like these can make its own cold air. They tend to almost stall off the cape hatteras and really develop into huge storms...like many of the models depict it. It already trended colder on most of the models and if you think about it it's been a bit colder than modeled lately so let's see if that trend continues. Also we need that high to move in southwest a bit faster cause there is cold air now with that high just need it about 12-24 hours earlier. Not to mention it's January and a low placement seems to be just southeast of Atlantic City which is ideal for a bad ass nor'easter that could even produce heavy snow into to the coast. We just need that high move in faster and that'll stall the storm even more snowing it out on top of us. Plenty of time left...

The low tracks directly over the heart of Long Island, also low placement in general is widely up for debate still, go look at the EPS

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The only posters that have any shot at snow with this system are to the north & west. Granted, there was a colder trend today on the ECMWF & EPS, I don't expect it to continue. Even with a major bombogenesis event, there's no cold air to drain into the system from the north, that's the problem. If you have a perfectly placed high & you can drain in some low level cold air, maybe you can squeeze in some frozen precipitation as far south as the European suite is depicting today. But I'd expect it to be more sleet & freezing rain than anything. If this was December or late Feb, I wouldn't even say that, but climotologically speaking, there is some chance for frozen precip. The main threat continues to be strong winds, coastal flooding & much needed rain for the whole area.

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58 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Huh? Euro precip moves in 06z on the 23rd and is winding down 12z on the 24th

 

and GFS precip rolls in same time between 00-06z 23rd and finisheslater 18z on the 24th

Euro has precip in before 0z sunday and is done just after midnight the 24th. .01 falls between 6z and 12z the 24th in the city

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3 hours ago, mikemost said:

The only posters that have any shot at snow with this system are to the north & west. Granted, there was a colder trend today on the ECMWF & EPS, I don't expect it to continue. Even with a major bombogenesis event, there's no cold air to drain into the system from the north, that's the problem. If you have a perfectly placed high & you can drain in some low level cold air, maybe you can squeeze in some frozen precipitation as far south as the European suite is depicting today. But I'd expect it to be more sleet & freezing rain than anything. If this was December or late Feb, I wouldn't even say that, but climotologically speaking, there is some chance for frozen precip. The main threat continues to be strong winds, coastal flooding & much needed rain for the whole area.

This definitely has to the potential to be a big mountain event. I'm not talking the 1,000' elevations in our NW areas but rather real elevations above 2,000' in the Catskills, Berks and Southern Greens. 

Decemebr 1992 has insane snow amounts in the highest elevations as did March 2010 I'm talking 5 feet of snow. 

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