snywx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 57 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I agree... but there aren't any posters from NYC or Long Island really discussing anything about it... I'm more concerned with possibility of frozen obviously hence my centered discussions, if someone would like to talk about the coastal impacts that's fine too Agree 100% I see zero discussion about the upcoming impacts of wind/rain along the coast. My concern lies more with the possibility of some wintry weather for monday w/ some decent winds. The possibility of power outages up this way does exist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Agree 100% I see zero discussion about the upcoming impacts of wind/rain along the coast. My concern lies more with the possibility of some wintry weather for monday w/ some decent winds. The possibility of power outages up this way does exist It's actually pretty dead in here... especially for this caliber type storm, all my sleet talk might be boring people though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It's actually pretty dead in here... especially for this caliber type storm, all my sleet talk might be boring people though lol The models are trending colder. This thread should be busy. Weird to see it dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 GFS coming in colder especially at 850 and surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Still a tad warm for northern sections compared to Nam/RGEM but much colder than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Still a tad warm for northern sections compared to Nam/RGEM but much colder than previous runs historically, the NAM if it is right and gets cold air damming correct, it can be bad. I have personally had numerous storms occur where the GFS informed rain and it was sleet per the NAM/ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Animal said: historically, the NAM if it is right and gets cold air damming correct, it can be bad. I have personally had numerous storms occur where the GFS informed rain and it was sleet per the NAM/ETA. Nam has outperformed Global's for my 2 biggest snowfalls this season, my 4.9" storm and the 6.7" storm... GFS/euro was a dusting to 2" ... Nam was called "just the nam" and ended up right twice... nams been outstanding this year imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam has outperformed Global's for my 2 biggest snowfalls this season, my 4.9" storm and the 6.7" storm... GFS/euro was a dusting to 2" ... Nam was called "just the nam" and ended up right twice... nams been outstanding this year imo Yeah NAM is not a joke anymore - and its wet bias isn't as ridiculous as it once was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam has outperformed Global's for my 2 biggest snowfalls this season, my 4.9" storm and the 6.7" storm... GFS/euro was a dusting to 2" ... Nam was called "just the nam" and ended up right twice... nams been outstanding this year imo Just this past Wednesday, the NAM and some of the other lower scoring models like the GGEM had major snows in New England from ORH-AFN-CON on the order of 6-12". The real result was 1-2" mixed with rain and a mostly rotted precip shield. Another thing to keep in mind is that the depth, and degree, of the warm layer matters. If it is significantly above freezing from 700-800mb plus near the surface, there may not be enough time for precipitation to refreeze into sleet. So then you end up with a sleet/rain mix with sleet occurring in only the heaviest of bands. This is why this storm is not like March 2007 or VDay 2007. Those storms had a very cold column from 925mb to the surface, leaving ample time for refreezing of hydrometeors. In this storm, there is very marginal air from 925mb down so we may get rain or mixed precip that does not accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 27 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam has outperformed Global's for my 2 biggest snowfalls this season, my 4.9" storm and the 6.7" storm... GFS/euro was a dusting... Nam was called "just the nam" and needed up right twice... nams been outstanding this year imo The mesos get a bad rap when they're utilized in incorrect situations (ugh, social media). I like the NAM for this event too, & the RGEM as well. I expect the mesoscale models to perform better than the global models for this event due to the dynamics at play. The NAM has a knack for handling thermal profiles well as we get closer to the event. I'm starting to give creedance to the heavy sleet solutions being depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 I would love if Forky could talk a little about the wind potential. Any inversions to prevent some of the stronger winds from mixing down? If so, can we mix down some of the winds below 900 mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam has outperformed Global's for my 2 biggest snowfalls this season, my 4.9" storm and the 6.7" storm... GFS/euro was a dusting to 2" ... Nam was called "just the nam" and ended up right twice... nams been outstanding this year imo agreed,dont forget the rgem either..this thing is coming in colder for a lot of people,dynamic cooling should do the rest aloft if the se winds can shut off quicker. everyone keeps saying that there won't be any frozen precip along the coastal plain, but i'm not so sure that's NOT going to happen now. it's getting interesting little by little not to mention the high winds and beach erosion,which might be quite dangerous at it's max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, danstorm said: Yeah NAM is not a joke anymore - and its wet bias isn't as ridiculous as it once was The gfs is playing catchup to the nam with regards to qpf. It's still a tad drier but not by nearly as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: agreed,dont forget the rgem either..this thing is coming in colder for a lot of people,dynamic cooling should do the rest aloft if the se winds can shut off quicker. everyone keeps saying that there won't be any frozen precip along the coastal plain, but i'm not so sure that's NOT going to happen now. it's getting interesting little by little not to mention the high winds and beach erosion,which might be quite dangerous at it's max. For the coastal plain, a little sleet mixed in with temps in the upper 30s is inconsequential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 27 members checking out a storm of this magnitude? If this was cold enough throughout the column to snow you betcha there would be over 150 people in here and rising. Not judging, just noting, but it would seem to me weather isnt simply just snow even though I LOVE it. This storm has plenty of details to it that are a step short of amazing. The sustained winds, duration, the rex block and how it affects the storm path and in turn the P types. Come on folks, this is our hobby and one should be open to all that it has to offer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: For the coastal plain, a little sleet mixed in with temps in the upper 30s is inconsequential still a bust considering most models had us in the mid to upper 40's,temps are clearly on the dive as this event approaches it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said: 27 members checking out a storm of this magnitude? If this was cold enough throughout the column to snow you betcha there would be over 150 people in here and rising. Not judging, just noting, but it would seem to me weather isnt simply just snow even though I LOVE it. This storm has plenty of details to it that are a step short of amazing. The sustained winds, duration, the rex block and how it affects the storm path and in turn the P types. Come on folks, this is our hobby and one should be open to all that it has to offer! i'm still here,although the prospects of wind,heavy cold rain and a all out raw day won't brighten up my mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, nzucker said: Just this past Wednesday, the NAM and some of the other lower scoring models like the GGEM had major snows in New England from ORH-AFN-CON on the order of 6-12". The real result was 1-2" mixed with rain and a mostly rotted precip shield. Another thing to keep in mind is that the depth, and degree, of the warm layer matters. If it is significantly above freezing from 700-800mb plus near the surface, there may not be enough time for precipitation to refreeze into sleet. So then you end up with a sleet/rain mix with sleet occurring in only the heaviest of bands. This is why this storm is not like March 2007 or VDay 2007. Those storms had a very cold column from 925mb to the surface, leaving ample time for refreezing of hydrometeors. In this storm, there is very marginal air from 925mb down so we may get rain or mixed precip that does not accumulate. Just checked the NAM sounding for MGJ.. Warm layer is above 825mb during the height and @ hr 48 the warm layer is extremely shallow ( between 750-775) w/ temps just above 0c in this layer. This is a winter weather event up here plain and simple btw- surface temps are 32-33 during this same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, snywx said: Just checked the sounding for MGJ.. Warm layer is above 825mb during the height and @ hr 48 the warm layer is extremely shallow ( between 750-775) w/ temps just above 0c in this layer. This is a winter weather event up here plain and simple for you guys def,the 0z gfs is coming in south and colder b.t.w.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: We had 2 mostly sleet events in 2007. The VD storm and then one in March with 5" of sleet. I believe to the north they were good snowstorms Valentine's was the one that paralyzed 81 back in NEPA. SN-+IP-++SN followed by temps plummeting to the single digits basically left us with a huge block of snow/icepack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This storm is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 20 minutes ago, Rjay said: I would love if Forky could talk a little about the wind potential. Any inversions to prevent some of the stronger winds from mixing down? If so, can we mix down some of the winds below 900 mb? I hope we don't see hours of 60-70 mph gusts, there will be some nasty power outages and tree damage on Long Island with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, snywx said: Just checked the NAM sounding for MGJ.. Warm layer is above 825mb during the height and @ hr 48 the warm layer is extremely shallow ( between 750-775) w/ temps just above 0c in this layer. This is a winter weather event up here plain and simple btw- surface temps are 32-33 during this same period. Could you please do the sounding for KSWF? It would be interesting too see. Thanks. Even tho it is just to the east it could be much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Valentine's was the one that paralyzed 81 back in NEPA. SN-+IP-++SN followed by temps plummeting to the single digits basically left us with a huge block of snow/icepack. That was a nasty one in State College too, I think it was over a foot of gook that froze into a brick. That was another Lucy-pulls-the-football storm that had 20"+ on most models for the area to end up much more icy because of the mid level low tracks and primary that wouldn't die. 15 degrees and stinging sleet is never fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That was a nasty one in State College too, I think it was over a foot of gook that froze into a brick. That was another Lucy-pulls-the-football storm that had 20"+ on most models for the area to end up much more icy because of the mid level low tracks and primary that wouldn't die. 15 degrees and stinging sleet is never fun. Yeah, that would have been a record-breaker if it stayed snow. Still, in W-B, we wound up with over 12" to go with the sleet thanks to the CCB that swung back through as I recall. The snowpack we got from that storm didn't fully melt until early Spring. 06-07 was a backend winter if there ever was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, Rjay said: I would love if Forky could talk a little about the wind potential. Any inversions to prevent some of the stronger winds from mixing down? If so, can we mix down some of the winds below 900 mb? This. A lot of models showing the wind potential but would love to hear more from our top posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 wow the gfs is really cold even for n.y.c..yikes! hour 42 panel as its cranking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Could you please do the sounding for KSWF? It would be interesting too see. Thanks. Even tho it is just to the east it could be much different. Warm layer is little deeper but overall similar. Surface is right around 33° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Warm layer is little deeper but overall similar. Surface is right around 33° Thanks. It's going to be model madness tomorrow. Hope it still holds and the others cave to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 37 minutes ago, Rjay said: I would love if Forky could talk a little about the wind potential. Any inversions to prevent some of the stronger winds from mixing down? If so, can we mix down some of the winds below 900 mb? Agreed... Out of my area of knowledge here - But looking at some of the soundings, there is definitely stability below 850mb. That being said, the trowel signature seems to be pronounced, and the intensity of the precipitation could mix down some of those 850mb winds, but to what extent? So I'd also love to hear a meteorologist perspective on how they think what happens at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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