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Jim Martin

Severe Weather Risk This Weekend

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Still surprised there hasn't been a warned cell in FL in about 3 hrs.  Offshore Jacksonville would have had about 4.

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My criticisms of yesterday's outlook and tornado warnings. Did any of the LA/AR/MS tornado warnings verify? If so, why aren't there reports on the map?

 

E3z13Bj.png

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How about we have this discussion after the event, not at 5pm with many hours of it yet to go..... The crying bust well before it's even over gets old.

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April 24 2010 also featured several significant though less notable EF2-EF4 tornadoes in AL though. I remember that night, nonstop warnings and an EF3 just south of here. So if anything that means just one can make the difference in the high risk, but further east all hell can break loose with multiple tornadoes later than one would have expected. And it's only evening.

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The bar to verify a high risk zone is not exceedingly high.  This can verify as a high risk event even if armageddon doesn't happen.  Let's see how things play out.

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3 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

How about we have this discussion after the event, not at 5pm with many hours of it yet to go..... The crying bust well before it's even over gets old.

Usually turns out wrong too... I've found that one or two storms usually go nuts later in the event and that shuts up all the "bust" talk. Patience folks.

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5 minutes ago, Chinook said:

My criticisms of yesterday's outlook and tornado warnings. Did any of the LA/AR/MS tornado warnings verify? If so, why aren't there reports on the map?

 

E3z13Bj.png

Yes there were many tornadoes in east TX, north LA, and south AR. NWS Shreveport hasn't issued any storm reports for some reason

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4 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

How about we have this discussion after the event, not at 5pm with many hours of it yet to go..... The crying bust well before it's even over gets old.

 

Good advice.  I just deleted several posts.  Let's stick to the ongoing situation.

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Cells coming onshore from Taylor down to Levy counties in north central Florida bear watching.  Showing good discreet rotation.  

Finally some cells with the right spacing and shape.  Maybe  they can stay ahead of the main line.

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I don't think anyone expected no tornado warnings at this time a few hours ago

but a high risk was certainly justified 

but its just that "RISK"  doesn't been  100% going to happen

 

 

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3 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said:

Cell west of Clearwater, FL is steadily increasing in intensity.

Pretty good sig on radar. Looks like a waterspout possibly. Wouldn't be surprised if it's warned shortly.

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Florida main threat appears to be from linear  spinups.

Not quite yet. Discrete supercell north of Tampa just went tornado warned.

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Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Florida main threat appears to be from linear  spinups.

Looks like they're losing to the discrete spinups ahead of the line.

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

mini sups now developing over N central FL and hooking

fast movement means the window is only 2 hours or so before. out movee offshore

The cells just coming ashore further south have more time to work with though. 

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tbwchat    2017/01/22 5:53 PM    iembot    
5 NNE Holiday [Pasco Co, FL] EMERGENCY MNGR reports TSTM WND DMG at 5:40 PM EST -- EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT SEVERAL DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES ALONG WITH THREE STRUCTURES DAMAGED.

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The area of storms that will come ashore in a little while. S of Tampa down to Naples will have to be watched. No monsters but definitely some quick spin ups possible.

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