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Severe Weather Risk This Weekend


Jim Martin

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1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

The situation was severe enough as it was, but I must admit when I saw that PDS watch with purple highs for parameters all across the board I was reminded of April 27, 2011 in MS and AL. Fortunately we did not come anywhere near that number even if  some confirmed TDS's turn out to be legit.

 

not sure what the problem was...

 

I think I posted here a few days ago SPC may go with a high risk either Saturday or Sunday.......

but as always it comes down to the meso details of the day which looked great at first

this morning  I mentioned the storms looked "grundgy" and in outbreaks In the past underperforming setups also have that look

 

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21 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

And every one of those TDS's were confirmed by NWS Melbourne in chat. Were they strong long lived tornadoes? No. But the storms were mostly rain wrapped, in rural areas when TDS's showed up. Confirmation doesn't come immediately. No offense taken, but know what you yourself are talking about first.

Radar confirmed and ground confirmed are two different things.  I'm very familiar with the area and there's a whole lotta nothin' in many of those areas so we very well may find a path here or there tomorrow in the light of day, but many, many of the TDS!, TDS! shouts were in populated areas and other than the lawn chair above, the damage appears minimal.

Regardless, happy folks in FL were safe- coulda been a lot worse.  Early on, the best dynamics were west of the CAPE and then storm mode was not conducive.  

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The local Central Florida stations have gone back to regular programming. A couple reports of trees down in the Deland area but that was it. Pretty sure if there had been more damage they would be covering it wall to wall considering the anomalous setup. Like I said when the day started, I'm almost always a lurker here because severe weather is a non-event most of the time here. But I would think since it's such a non event here, the stations would be all over any damage reports like...well, like news stations.

We dodged a bullet here. Not so lucky further North. I'll head back to lurker mode now and will enjoy reading everyone's thoughts on why the storms in Florida failed to produce.

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As a quick note, I only noted one time in the central/south Florida tornado warnings where a confirmed tornado was noted, and that was the waterspout that moved onshore near Tampa. My program may have missed something but I believe if someone were to go back and read through the warnings and the updates they would find that to be true. There were multiple PDS tornado warnings but they were all for radar indicated developing tornadoes.

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3 minutes ago, weunice said:

As a quick note, I only noted one time in the central/south Florida tornado warnings where a confirmed tornado was noted, and that was the waterspout that moved onshore near Tampa. My program may have missed something but I believe if someone were to go back and read through the warnings and the updates they would find that to be true. There were multiple PDS tornado warnings but they were all for radar indicated developing tornadoes.

I think you are correct

several in here posted that they saw debris on the radar(not doubting them) but it was never radar confirmed in the warnings

 

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

I think you are correct

several in here posted they say debris on the radar(not doubting them) but it was never radar confirmed in the warnings

 

Many of the TDS claims were quite questionable tonight IMO, with the exception of the Woodbine, GA area tornado. 

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7 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Many of the TDS claims were quite questionable tonight IMO, with the exception of the Woodbine, GA area tornado. 

I know little about dual-pol radars with debris so I just take posters word for it 

despite a few years using GR level 3, I have just been using COD radar for over 20 years LOL

 

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52 minutes ago, F-5 said:

I've got tix to the Rolex 24 in Daytona next weekend with about ten friends, plus pre-paid hotel, plus pre-paid RV- I have a vested interest and am glad this was not as serious as it could have been-  but this board was TDS!, TDS! for an hour straight and have we a single confirmed tornado report from the state of Florida?

The radar signatures just did not match the hype on this board at any time, IMO.

The fact is, despite one monster tornado which sadly claimed multiple lives and justified the High Risk from a public safety standpoint if not a technical one, for the overwhelming majority of the risk area this was an intense squall line that never quite mustered the ability to sustain tornadic supercells.

Sorry if anyone was offended by the truth.

 

No one was offended. The simple fact is that an ongoing event, especially a severe weather outbreak where things change every few minutes, is not the time to discuss whether or not the forecast verified. That is what post analysis is for. Sorry if this fact eluded you.

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40 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Many of the TDS claims were quite questionable tonight IMO, with the exception of the Woodbine, GA area tornado. 

I agree, some were questionable.  I admit I wasn't following closely tonight but in FL of what I did watch I didn't see anything that I considered to be a no-doubter like in GA.  It was mentioned earlier and I see this sometimes with supercells and mesovortices that bugs, bits of vegetation, and other smallish debris from the inflow gets drawn into low level mesocyclone/vortex and lowers the CC around the velocity couplet.  And if NWS offices were discussing what they truely believed were TDSs in chat why weren't they tagging the warnings?

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9 minutes ago, jburns said:

No one was offended. The simple fact is that an ongoing event, especially a severe weather outbreak where things change every few minutes, is not the time to discuss whether or not the forecast verified. That is what post analysis is for. Sorry if this fact eluded you.

AMEN! Everyone wants to focus on wether a forecast verified. We state our cases on TDS's or loss of life. The real verification is what we likely never hear about.....the lives that were saved because the word got out. Yes public complacency is a thorny issue but I'm willing to bet some lives were saved last night and today because of the alarms sounded led by the SPC. And just as a reminder the P stands for prediction! 

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51 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

 

not sure what the problem was...

 

I think I posted here a few days ago SPC may go with a high risk either Saturday or Sunday.......

but as always it comes down to the meso details of the day which looked great at first

this morning  I mentioned the storms looked "grundgy" and in outbreaks In the past underperforming setups also have that look

 

Not sure why the setup appears to have underperformed either.  

Looking at the 00z observed soundings out of Jacksonville and Tampa, don't really see obvious red flags.  I guess if you're looking for something, the directional shear in the mid levels (above 850 mb) is fairly modest, but I'm not sure that explains the failure as we have seen setups in our region perform just fine with modest directional shear in the mid levels.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure why the setup appears to have underperformed either.  

Looking at the 00z observed soundings out of Jacksonville and Tampa, don't really see obvious red flags.  I guess if you're looking for something, the directional shear in the mid levels (above 850 mb) is fairly modest, but I'm not sure that explains the failure as we have seen setups in our region perform just fine with modest directional shear in the mid levels.

Also as the storms progressed across Fl the marine layer may have had a stabilizing influence at the lower levels.

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Also as the storms progressed across Fl the marine layer may have had a stabilizing influence at the lower levels.

Seen many worse seabreeze front storms in August, as have you - damn glad I wasn't up at Suwanee for a fest (not there there was one) but Live Oak got nailed.

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2 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Any notice that almost closed low in northwest Ga. Amazing radar signature. Looks like big rains are falling in northeast AL.

Gorgeous, isn't it?  Our own little private spinner meandering around Dalton.

It's been spinning around for a few hours now - I keep coming back to the GA2 KFFC window to close it, and decide "nah, grab just a few more frames".

That chunk of the region is already under flood warnings, they'd probably be happy if it meandered elsewhere.

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36 minutes ago, jburns said:

No one was offended. The simple fact is that an ongoing event, especially a severe weather outbreak where things change every few minutes, is not the time to discuss whether or not the forecast verified. That is what post analysis is for. Sorry if this fact eluded you.

Fair enough, the post about future generations studying this outbreak was pretty low hanging fruit.  I took the bait, my apologies.

Does anyone know why the radar data was so poor today?  You could hardly get two decent scans back to back.  I'm sure that contributed to much of the confusion.

 

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Just now, SharonA said:

Gorgeous, isn't it?  Our own little private spinner meandering around Dalton.

It's been spinning around for a few hours now - I keep coming back to the GA2 KFFC window to close it, and decide "nah, grab just a few more frames".

That chunk of the region is already under flood warnings, they'd probably be happy if it meandered elsewhere.

It is beautiful. I noticed pressures around it are really low too. Lowest one I found was at 986 mb.

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5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Also as the storms progressed across Fl the marine layer may have had a stabilizing influence at the lower levels.

I don't know much about the nuances of Florida, but I was watching the obs pretty closely and the temps/dews near the coast were pretty similar to farther inland.

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Have seen some speculation about the shear being too strong for the amount of instability (as a reason for why this wasn't bigger).  Shear was very high so that isn't out of the question, but CAPE was well over 1000 J/kg so I'm not sure... imo, that argument would be easier to buy if CAPE had been less.  

Anyone have any thoughts?

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26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Have seen some speculation about the shear being too strong for the amount of instability (as a reason for why this wasn't bigger).  Shear was very high so that isn't out of the question, but CAPE was well over 1000 J/kg so I'm not sure... imo, that argument would be easier to buy if CAPE had been less.  

Anyone have any thoughts?

with temps into the low-mid 70's and dews upper 60's to 70 with cold temps aloft I don't see how CAPE was a problem..was prob closer to 2000 

maybe over SE GA where that boundary was slow to move out but certain not over the panhandle 

as soon as SPC put out the watch update about meso tightening up and outbreak beginning it went blah

and when you get too much shear with too little CAPE the storms usually "stretch out thin" SW to NE....... here we had discrete or semi discrete SUPS

 

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I heard Dr. Greg Forbes mention something about the winds changing direction during the

day, (more W than SW) preventing greater low-level turning.  That may have kept some of

the circulations above the ground.  Also, I am not sure how to read setup parameters, but I

do know that LCL-heights cannot be too high for many tornadoes to form.  If someone knows

what they were in some areas, it might be a category to look at.

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