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Severe Weather Risk This Weekend


Jim Martin

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I will be watching from afar at the AMS conference in Seattle. I hope everyone stays safe today in the outlook region.

 

The sounding from Tallahassee is just downright scary, by the way. Hard to believe I'm looking at a sounding like that in January.

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The morning line has pretty much ended its southward progression towards JAX. There is a subtle outflow boundary working its way towards the city, but will likely stall in the vicinity and then slowly push back north. This area could be enhanced for significant tornadoes later on as it continues to destabilize. 

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Jacksonville's morning AFD.

A very dangerous situation is developing across northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia today. Long track strong tornadoes (EF2 or
greater) are possible this afternoon. An west to east boundary
could set somewhere across the region this afternoon due to the
convection across southeast Georgia, and this could be a focus
area for long track tornadoes. A PDS Watch will likely be issued
for our entire region later today. This is an extremely rare and
dangerous situation for our area, similar to the major outbreaks
seen across the midwest and southeast to the northwest of our
region. Soundings for this afternoon are showing a near perfect
situation for severe storms, with bulk shear of 60-70 knots,
effective SRH of 300-600 m2/s2, and MLCAPE of 1000+ J/kg.
So,bowing segments with straight lines, tornadoes, and large hail
are likely.

Severe storms should wind down from north to south this evening,
with quiet conditions overnight.
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And this, one of the most ominous I've ever seen.

000 NOUS42 KJAX 221604 PNSJAX FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166- 230415- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1104 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 ...High Risk of long lived and destructive tornadoes today... North Florida and southeast Georgia residents, The severe weather event we are about to go through has the potential to be one of the most severe weather outbreaks since the 1993 Super Storm and possibly like the big tornado outbreak near the University of Alabama a few years ago. A Tornado Watch called a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) is likely to be issued for our area later today. Unfortunately reports are that 11 people have already died in southern Georgia overnight. You need to take this situation extremely seriously, like you would a potential hurricane. Some things you need to know 1. Have a means to be alerted to severe weather, multiple means are better. Most major phone carriers carry the Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) and it automatically goes to your phone, but if you have turned it off please turn it back on today. The FEMA App will also alert you and it is free. The Red Cross also has a tornado app with a great deal of useful information. 2. Keep your phones charged at all times today. 3. If you have a NOAA weather radio make sure it has fresh batteries and if it is stored this is the time to break it out. 4. Monitor the broadcast media and the NWS Jacksonville webpage, Facebook and Twitter. 5. When a warning is issued, many people want to confirm the information. Unfortunately today the storms will be moving so fast that before you have the time to confirm the threat the tornado could be on you. Please if a warning is issued resist the urge to confirm the information and take shelter immediately, it could save your or a family members life! 6. Have something to cover your head, Motorcycle or Bike helmet. 7. Find a safe room, preferably an interior room with minimum glass in the room. Generally bathrooms are safest but avoid rooms with large mirrors. 8. Please do not try to outrun a tornado in a vehicle, they will be moving fast and on winding country roads you are likely to lose the race. Find a safe shelter in a sturdy building as quickly as possible. 9. Mobile and prefabricated homes are NOT safe in severe weather, especially older ones. Hopefully, we can escape this situation without anyone being injured or significant damage, no one would be happier than the employees of the National Weather Service, but we need to you take precautions should the worst happen today. $$ Sandrik

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3 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

And this, one of the most ominous I've ever seen.

 

 

000
NOUS42 KJAX 221604
PNSJAX
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-
230415-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1104 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

...High Risk of long lived and destructive tornadoes today...

North Florida and southeast Georgia residents,

The severe weather event we are about to go through has the potential
to be one of the most severe weather outbreaks since the 1993
Super Storm and possibly like the big tornado outbreak near the
University of Alabama a few years ago. A Tornado Watch called a
Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) is likely to be issued for
our area later today. Unfortunately reports are that 11 people
have already died in southern Georgia overnight. You need to take
this situation extremely seriously, like you would a potential
hurricane. Some things you need to know

1. Have a means to be alerted to severe weather, multiple means are
better. Most major phone carriers carry the Wireless Emergency
Alert (WEA) and it automatically goes to your phone, but if you
have turned it off please turn it back on today. The FEMA App will
also alert you and it is free. The Red Cross also has a tornado
app with a great deal of useful information.
2. Keep your phones charged at all times today.
3. If you have a NOAA weather radio make sure it has fresh
batteries and if it is stored this is the time to break it out.
4. Monitor the broadcast media and the NWS Jacksonville webpage,
Facebook and Twitter.
5. When a warning is issued, many people want to confirm the
information. Unfortunately today the storms will be moving so fast
that before you have the time to confirm the threat the tornado
could be on you. Please if a warning is issued resist the urge to
confirm the information and take shelter immediately, it could
save your or a family members life!
6. Have something to cover your head, Motorcycle or Bike helmet.
7. Find a safe room, preferably an interior room with minimum
glass in the room. Generally bathrooms are safest but avoid rooms
with large mirrors.
8. Please do not try to outrun a tornado in a vehicle, they will
be moving fast and on winding country roads you are likely to lose
the race. Find a safe shelter in a sturdy building as quickly as
possible.
9. Mobile and prefabricated homes are NOT safe in severe
weather, especially older ones.

Hopefully, we can escape this situation without anyone being injured
or significant damage, no one would be happier than the employees
of the National Weather Service, but we need to you take
precautions should the worst happen today.

$$

Sandrik

It's certainly warranted! I must say I am really surprised how active the weather has been this morning in the Western part of the FL Panhandle. This is not what I expected when I went to sleep last night!

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Just now, southmdwatcher said:

SmokeEater. could you post the link for the above very ominous Public outlook from NWS Jacksonville....I would like to post that to another non weather board and the link isn't obvious in the NWS website yet.

It's also on their Facebook page and posted by their WCM, Al Sandrik. He usually is not all about being an alarmist, but this setup is probably the ceiling for their WFO. Everything is ripe for a significant event that is rare for this area.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0112
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern GA...north FL...far southeast
   AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 221625Z - 221800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch
   issuance is forthcoming -- around 1730Z.

   DISCUSSION...A dangerous outbreak of tornadoes is expected to occur
   across parts of north FL, southern GA, and far southeast AL this
   afternoon. Air mass destabilization continues across the eastern
   Gulf Coast vicinity ahead of deepening surface low pressure near
   Mobile Bay. As the surface low undergoes rapid deepening along its
   east-northeastward/northeastward track, markedly strengthening
   low-level southerly mass fluxes will occur -- encouraging the
   development of moderate buoyancy south of a warm front branching
   east of the low.

   Present indications are that the ongoing warm-advection shield of
   convection from southern AL to GA will continue moving
   northward/northeastward, with the precipitation-flanking warm front
   to the south advancing northward. As this occurs, surface-based
   discrete and semi-discrete supercells will continue to spread
   northeastward and east-northeastward into the warm sector --
   initially developing along a surface trough/front extending south of
   the developing low into the Gulf. The related supercell-tornado risk
   will spread inland after 18Z. Very long, curved hodographs yielding
   400-600 m2/s2 of effective SRH, combined with MLCAPE around 
   500-1250 J/kg, will support the potential for long-track,
   fast-moving, strong tornadoes.

   The issuance of a long-lead-time Particularly Dangerous Situation
   Tornado Watch is planned for around 1730Z.
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2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Mesoscale Discussion 0112
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern GA...north FL...far southeast
   AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 221625Z - 221800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch
   issuance is forthcoming -- around 1730Z.

   DISCUSSION...A dangerous outbreak of tornadoes is expected to occur
   across parts of north FL, southern GA, and far southeast AL this
   afternoon. Air mass destabilization continues across the eastern
   Gulf Coast vicinity ahead of deepening surface low pressure near
   Mobile Bay. As the surface low undergoes rapid deepening along its
   east-northeastward/northeastward track, markedly strengthening
   low-level southerly mass fluxes will occur -- encouraging the
   development of moderate buoyancy south of a warm front branching
   east of the low.

   Present indications are that the ongoing warm-advection shield of
   convection from southern AL to GA will continue moving
   northward/northeastward, with the precipitation-flanking warm front
   to the south advancing northward. As this occurs, surface-based
   discrete and semi-discrete supercells will continue to spread
   northeastward and east-northeastward into the warm sector --
   initially developing along a surface trough/front extending south of
   the developing low into the Gulf. The related supercell-tornado risk
   will spread inland after 18Z. Very long, curved hodographs yielding
   400-600 m2/s2 of effective SRH, combined with MLCAPE around 
   500-1250 J/kg, will support the potential for long-track,
   fast-moving, strong tornadoes.

   The issuance of a long-lead-time Particularly Dangerous Situation
   Tornado Watch is planned for around 1730Z.

MD 112 graphic

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CAE's updated AFD

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --

There will be a threat of severe thunderstorms through this evening. Regional radar late this morning shows most of the showers and thunderstorms have shifted east of the forecast area with a break across the Midlands and CSRA for a few hours. Visible satellite imagery showing breaks in the cloud cover which will allow for heating to take place and instability to develop. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the upper low. The NAM and GFS are consistent indicating strong instability developing as the cold upper low gets closer to the area. The models display surface- based LI values -5 to -9 with the greatest instability in the east section closer to greater low- level moisture. This instability combined with continued favorable h85 and h25 jet dynamics and a mid-level dry slot supports the potential for supercells ahead of an QLCS. Significant tornadoes (EF2 damage or greater) and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm threat should end late tonight as the warm or occluded front shifts north of the forecast area with a loss of surface-based instability. Wrap-around moisture and cold air aloft associated with the upper low supports a continued shower chance with graupel possible. Mixing associated with strong instability forecast today plus the pressure gradient tonight supports a lake wind advisory.

-- End Changed Discussion --
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1028 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
  
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z  
  
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHERN FL...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST  
AL...  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
AL...FL...GA...AND SC...  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
AL...FL...GA...SC...AND NC...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF  
AL...FL...GA...SC...AND NC...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE  
SOUTHEAST STATES...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL  
CA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS  
NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA, WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT  
ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.  
  
...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA, AND  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA...  
   
..SOUTHERN AL/NORTH FL/SOUTHERN GA  
  
THE LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW NEAR  
MOB, WITH A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD  
FROM THE LOW ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER.  THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN  
OVER 12MB IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS  
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG LOW AND MID  
LEVEL WIND ACCELERATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF GA/FL.  THE RESULT WILL BE  
A ZONE OF IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES IN THE WARM-SECTOR OF THE LOW,  
ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES.   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE HIGH RISK AREA ARE CHARACTERIZED BY  
EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 500-700 M2/S2 OVERLAPPING MLCAPE OF  
1000-1500 J/KG.  THIS RARE PARAMETER SPACE WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF  
LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.  ALSO, VERY  
STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A  
SIGNIFICANT RISK OF BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING  
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE LINE OF STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY SAG  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED  
SEVERE RISK.  
   
..NORTHEAST AL/NORTHERN GA  
  
AS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, A PLUME OF  
RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WRAP  
AROUND THE LOW.  THIS MAY RESULT IN AN ARC OF STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTHEAST AL AND NORTHERN GA LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG THIS ARC MAY  
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES, ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
   
..CAROLINAS  
  
THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN OVER PARTS OF SC/NC LATER  
TODAY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED,  
AND THE PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW OVER SOUTHEAST GA.   
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS AND CYCLOGENESIS, THERE  
REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SPREADING  
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND INTO SOUTHEAST NC AFTER DARK,  
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREAT.  ITS  
UNCLEAR HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND, BUT HAVE  
LESSENED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NC WHERE  
COOL AIR AND CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.  
   
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13 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said:

Think April 28th 2014 maybe a 9, can't remember for sure, but I know April 14 2012 was a 9

I'm generally a complete lurker here, but I know this one! March 2, 2012 Forbes gave a 10 for portions of Kentucky. Pretty sure the last 9 is as noted here.

Also, I am on the southern edge of the High Risk today in Central Florida so will try to post any happenings from my area.

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6 minutes ago, Clyde said:

I'm generally a complete lurker here, but I know this one! March 2, 2012 Forbes gave a 10 for portions of Kentucky. Pretty sure the last 9 is as noted here.

Also, I am on the southern edge of the High Risk today in Central Florida so will try to post any happenings from my area.

Where at? My Dad's in Orange Beach in a campground.

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11 minutes ago, Clyde said:

I'm generally a complete lurker here, but I know this one! March 2, 2012 Forbes gave a 10 for portions of Kentucky. Pretty sure the last 9 is as noted here.

Also, I am on the southern edge of the High Risk today in Central Florida so will try to post any happenings from my area.

Thanks for any updates later from your area. Have a son in law there for business tonight and tomorrow.

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5 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Where at? My Dad's in Orange Beach in a campground.

Near Geneva, FL. To clarify, south of the High Risk. Lot of family just south of Jax though. Will be relaying a lot to them today. Good luck to your dad. Glad they have a shelter designation. This is pretty unprecedented for this area.

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Hate to do backyard stuff, but what time window is worst for family just west of Jacksonville? 

Probably 1630-1800, but that could either move forward or lengthen backwards. That's taking latest guidance. Of course any cell that gets alone ahead of the "main event" could drop a tornado.

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