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Severe Weather Risk This Weekend


Jim Martin

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we have to watch for 500mb cold core activity more NW then a lot of people will think including the ATL area just east of the very wrapped up low

this will be later after the main line passes east further south and if we get a little heating behind it later in the day

 

edit: wow HRRR is even picking it up

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HIGH RISK COMING

 

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0534 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH FL...SOUTHERN GA...AND EXTREME  
SOUTHEASTERN AL  
  
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE   
  
VALID 221134Z - 221300Z  
  
SUMMARY...THE 13Z DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO HIGH  
RISK FOR TORNADOES -- SOME STRONG AND LONG-TRACK -- EXPECTED LATER  
TODAY.  
  
DISCUSSION...ANOMALOUSLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OBSERVED ALONG THE  
EASTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST, COMBINED WITH A MAINTAINED INFLUX OF  
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES BASED ON THE 06Z SLIDELL LA SOUNDING, AND  
THE APPROACH OF A POWERFUL MIDLEVEL CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT  
PLAINS, ALL SUGGEST INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG, LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. FOLLOWING  
COORDINATION WITH THE AFFECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEATHER  
FORECAST OFFICES, AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK WILL OCCUR FOR THE 13Z  
DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS WILL BE  
PROVIDED WITHIN THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK DISCUSSION.  
  

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AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0653 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
  
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z  
  
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTH  
GEORGIA...NORTH FLORIDA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
HIGH RISK AREA...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA...  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
MODERATE RISK AREA...FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH  
CAROLINA...  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
ENHANCED RISK AREA...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE  
SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES...  
  
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS  
NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA, WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT  
ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.  
  
***SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA  
AND SOUTH GEORGIA***  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER TX/OK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE  
EASTWARD TO MS/AL BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INITIAL SYNOPTIC CYCLONE  
NEAR TEXARKANA WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY CYCLOGENESIS TODAY AT THE  
TRIPLE POINT OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AL, AND THE  
EASTWARD-SURGING COLD FRONT/TROUGH FROM LA/MS.  THIS NEW CYCLONE  
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS AL/GA IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT  
REGION OF A 100-130 KT MID-UPPER JET.  LIKEWISE, VERY STRONG  
DEEP-LAYER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR,  
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE AND A LINGERING  
STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY.  THE NET  
RESULT OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT  
TORNADO EPISODE TODAY ACROSS NORTH FL INTO SOUTH GA.  
   
..AL/FL/GA TODAY TO THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT  
  
A BROKEN BAND OF SEVERE STORMS THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT PERSISTS THIS  
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH GA.  THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH  
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, AS WELL AS AN EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH  
THAT IS NOW OVER NORTH GA AND EAST TN.  IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THIS  
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING, OR IF IT WILL PERSIST UNTIL NEW  
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO FORM FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS SOUTH AL AND  
THE FL PANHANDLE.  REGARDLESS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE  
NORTHWARD BY MIDDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS ACROSS AL.  LIKEWISE,  
AS THE SYNOPTIC MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,  
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE UNSTABLE WARM  
SECTOR.  OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONFIRM THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF  
THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES, THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN  
THE UNUSUAL COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS TODAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG, WITH EFFECTIVE  
BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT, AND EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF  
300-400 M2/S2.  THE ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ACROSS  
THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL FAVOR BROKEN BANDS OF TORNADIC  
SUPERCELLS.  
  
ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS SOUTH GA, THE SEVERE/TORNADO  
RISK WILL LIKELY RAMP UP AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH AL  
AND THE FL PANHANDLE ALONG THE RESIDUAL RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY/WARM  
FRONT, AND THEN SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL AND GA  
THROUGH THE DAY.  LONG-TRACKED, STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS, IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE  
HAIL.  THE SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE  
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND MOVES  
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS  
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF NEAR-SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WITH  
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE CAROLINAS.  HOWEVER, VERY STRONG  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WOULD FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF ANY SUPERCELLS THAT  
MATURE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH THE RISK FOR  
TORNADOES PERSISTING AFTER DARK INTO SC AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN NC.   
FARTHER SOUTH, THE BAND OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH  
SOUTH FL OVERNIGHT, WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A  
COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  
   

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I'm apparently not in a dangerous spot for this afternoon round, but the sun is about to break through here in the next few minutes

I definitely wouldn't let my guard down. You may not be in the EF3+ long track area but the upstate has a history of producing. I've seen EF1 damage that killed & EF0 that while very isolated caused a surprising amount of damage. Keep a eye on this today!

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20 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

looks like breaks in cloud cover over AL into GA

the warm front may mix north of the current activity

 

yeah that's what i'm worried about here. Currently it's still cloudy but there are already thin spots with breaks it appears to the south. Normally i don't worry too much about severe weather where i'm at, ne ga, because the terrain combined with east winds/cad/or residual surface cold pools weaken the convection by the time it gets here...but none of that exists this time and it's Such an usual setup.. I can't recall the last time, of if ever, there has been a 980mb low cutting across north ga in this fashion with severe weather possibilities. Currently spc has me right on the enhanced threat boundary. Certainly has my interest this time. 

 

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I'm trying to remember the last time there was a high risk issued for this part of the SE?  Has there been?  Back in March 2008 the high risk area extended from central Georgia into southern SC, but having it this far south and east is unusual to say the least.  This low pressure and track is crazy.

- Buck

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