Jim Martin Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Essentially for the rest of tonight in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This is concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0822 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Areas affected...Portions of northern Louisiana...southern Arkansas...and central/southern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...18... Valid 220222Z - 220415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17, 18 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop into Watch 18 over the next hour. Across northern portions of the watch, the main severe hazard will likely transition to damaging winds (with a tornado or two possible). Farther southeast in Mississippi, a greater tornado/large-hail potential will exist, with a strong tornado possible. DISCUSSION...In response to increasing warm advection related to the low-level jet, severe thunderstorms near the LA/AR border have begun to grow upscale into a broken band, with embedded mesocyclones still noted. This evolution should continue as the storms progress into Watch 18, resulting in damaging winds likely becoming the dominant threat across northern portions of the watch. A tornado or two will still be possible, however, considering the amplifying low-level flow and notable veering with height of 0-3-km winds. Farther southeast over south-central Mississippi, dew points in the lower 60s will favor slightly greater surface-based buoyancy. KDGX VWP data suggest around 250-300 m2/s2 of storm-relative helicity is present for low-level mesocyclone organization. With increasing semi-discrete convection over the next several hours, the tornado potential should rise accordingly, and a strong tornado (primarily closer to the MS/AL border) cannot be ruled out. ..Picca.. 01/22/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 With today's storm and the Feb. 2013 tornado Hattiesburg doesn't need anything else tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The supercell east of the Brandon MS radar is beginning to spin pretty good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 None of the stuff in the Southern PDS watch looks very impressive so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Video on FB of a supposed chaser getting hit by a tornado in Jena, LA a little while ago. They sounded like they had no idea what they were doing, you could hear the roar and they were oblivious until it was on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, SmokeEater said: Video on FB of a supposed chaser getting hit by a tornado in Jena, LA a little while ago. They sounded like they had no idea what they were doing, you could hear the roar and they were oblivious until it was on them. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: None of the stuff in the Southern PDS watch looks very impressive so far. Was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 100 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 0100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0830 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Areas affected...A small portion of southeast Mississippi into central and southern Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 17... Valid 220230Z - 220400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues to expand across Tornado Watch 17. DISCUSSION...As the west-to-east surface warm front continues to shift slowly north across Mobile Bay and the Florida Panhandle, a very favorable supercell environment (as revealed by the 22/00Z LIX RAOB, and area VWPs) continues to support an increase in coverage and intensity of severe storms across the region. While storms continue to increase across the southern half of Mississippi which will eventually spread into WW 17, the more immediate threat exists with cells farther south, shifting east-northeast out of the Florida Panhandle into adjacent southern Alabama. The most significant storm is currently straddling the Escambia AL/Escambia FL county line, where a potentially tornadic circulation is evident on radar. Expect convective coverage to increase northward across the watch over the next couple of hours, along with continued severe/tornado potential. ..Goss.. 01/22/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I think the storms over MS now are what are truly concerning for AL later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Was thinking the same thing. It's early in the night still. This is supposed to be overnight. Going to be a long night for the southeast. Btw, anyone have that FB link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Got a small circulation near Clinton MS now. It's mixed in an area of heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Tornado warned storm in Scott County, MS is worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, monsoonman1 said: Tornado warned storm in Scott County, MS is worth keeping an eye on. Does Philadelphia, MS cross anyone's minds here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, JasonOH said: It's early in the night still. This is supposed to be overnight. Going to be a long night for the southeast. Btw, anyone have that FB link? Honestly can't figure out how to copy it to get it here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, SmokeEater said: Honestly can't figure out how to copy it to get it here, lol. Can't you tell us the person's name so that we can find it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 or 8 tornado warned cells now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Here's the video that SmokeEater tried to link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Cell just S/SW of Braxton, MS needs to be warned - that happened fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Natester said: Here's the video that SmokeEater tried to link. Thanks man, don't mind my noob self, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Wicked rogue storm cells east of Jackson MS right now. Those things could fire off a tornado at any given moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpk1292000 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 West of Camilla, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, Natester said: Here's the video that SmokeEater tried to link. That was awesome. I was right in the middle of the EF1 that touched down in Simpsonville SC a couple months ago and it's a terrifying helpless feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 GFS also has a very strong low over N GA 987mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, WarmNose said: That was awesome. I was right in the middle of the EF1 that touched down in Simpsonville SC a couple months ago and it's a terrifying helpless feeling. Yep, my neighborhood took a direct hit and still many un inhabitable houses, and tree damage that will last for decades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: GFS also has a very strong low over N GA 987mb 3k NAM has the low at 977 mb over northern Alabama tomorrow! Yeah, I highly doubt it'll be THAT deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS definitely south of 18z and more intense. Has a 987 over the GA/TN/AL corner at 00z tomorrow. A more realistic solution than some of the numbers we have been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Still don't see anything impressive in the PDS watch box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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