pcbjr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, andyhb said: The kinematics on Sunday over FL and GA (perhaps into the Carolinas too) look pretty ridiculous. Euro has an appreciable plume of instability into the area as well. Going to come down to the amount of convection between now and then and also the mode, but I could certainly see a widespread damaging wind event or significant tornadoes if the intensity of the low level jet being shown by the Euro/NAM verifies. Tomorrow is more clouded given the high res almost uniformly indicating a lot of contamination from MCS activity, but if anything resembling a healthy warm sector ends up being in place, effective shear is certainly high enough for a pretty broad swath of severe reports. In North FL southern - Damn I hope not but y'all seem to be whistlin' a bad tune. Dogs and cats gonna be in the trees if'un it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, andyhb said: The kinematics on Sunday over FL and GA (perhaps into the Carolinas too) look pretty ridiculous. Euro has an appreciable plume of instability into the area as well. Going to come down to the amount of convection between now and then and also the mode, but I could certainly see a widespread damaging wind event or significant tornadoes if the intensity of the low level jet being shown by the Euro/NAM verifies. Tomorrow is more clouded given the high res almost uniformly indicating a lot of contamination from MCS activity, but if anything resembling a healthy warm sector ends up being in place, effective shear is certainly high enough for a pretty broad swath of severe reports. any OFBs will be interesting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 a couple of TOR warnings in western LA new day 1 0658 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LA/MS...AND SOUTHWEST AL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AND SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. REMINDER: THIS DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE VALID THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY (7 AM EST/6 AM CST). AN UPCOMING DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 06Z (1 AM EST/MIDNIGHT CST), WHICH WILL BE VALID BEGINNING AT 12Z SATURDAY, AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. ...SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ADJACENT GULF COAST STATES... A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HOUSTON METRO AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG A SEA BREEZE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RESIDES NEAR/ALONG COASTAL LA/MS/AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL LA/MS/AL AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THIS REGION. OVERALL THINKING REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PRIOR OUTLOOK. UPSCALE GROWTH OF INITIAL CLUSTER/DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA APPEARS PROBABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 120+ KT UPPER JET MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE LARGE HAIL MAY BE AN INITIAL THREAT GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE GREATER CONCERN WITH TIME AS THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LA/MS AND INTO SOUTHWEST AL OVERNIGHT. SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE 30% WIND PROBABILITIES AND CORRESPONDING ENHANCED RISK AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LINE PER MOST RECENT CONVECTION- ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION, A 10% TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA/MS AND FAR SOUTHWEST AL, INCLUDING THE MOBILE METRO AREA. THERE WILL BE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT ANY TORNADOES THAT DO FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BE STRONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 850 MB STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 50 KT OVERNIGHT, AND CORRESPONDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I suspect this is a clue that SPC will go with a MODERATE for tomorrow Also I suspect a Moderate for day 2 also (with a rare high risk for later upgrade if everything comes together Sunday such as warm sector quality ) PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0937 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017 ..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT * LOCATIONS... SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA * HAZARDS... A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE * SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA, AND SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORNADOES AT NIGHT CAN BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY FAST-MOVING AND DIFFICULT TO SEE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, WEATHER.GOV, OR OTHER MEDIA FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO FORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY, IDEALLY IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I think you are right Janet. SPC usually doesn't issue a public outlook unless they go with a moderate. Might come with new day one tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Indystorm said: I think you are right Janet. SPC usually doesn't issue a public outlook unless they go with a moderate. Might come with new day one tonight. If I remember right, they've done this before for an overnight threat like what's coming to help get the word out. Even with just an enhanced/slight risk. I don't think it has anything to do with what new day 1 outlook for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Yes, Smokeater. I see on SPC webpage that they also issue a public outlook when there's a 10% prob of sig tors at night. New meso discussion indicates tor watch to be issued soon for eastern Louisiana and southern MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 17 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Yes, Smokeater. I see on SPC webpage that they also issue a public outlook when there's a 10% prob of sig tors at night. New meso discussion indicates tor watch to be issued soon for eastern Louisiana and southern MS. Watch just got issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Avoyelles Parish in central Louisiana... Northeastern St. Landry Parish in central Louisiana... * Until 1130 PM CST * At 1110 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bayou Current, moving northeast at 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Good stuff guys, can't believe how little attention this is getting here. Getting caught up, is overnight greatest threat of outbreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Pretty huge signal for isoluated supercells/tornadoes from Southern GA -> SE SC -> Southern NC over the weekend via the 4km NAM 4pm GA 7pm SC 10pm NC Keeping my eye out for Sun night Wake County/South NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Jefferson Davis Parish in southwestern Louisiana... Southwestern Evangeline Parish in central Louisiana... Northwestern Acadia Parish in southwestern Louisiana... West central St. Landry Parish in central Louisiana... * Until midnight CST * At 1132 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Pine Island, or 7 miles north of Jennings, moving northeast at 30 mph. This is one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 New Day 1 valid starting at 7 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 This is a pretty crazy radar image for 2:40AM Central time. There is a radar-indicated tornado warning near Montpelier/Amite Louisiana. And there are even some storm spotters that are awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Tornado going through Hattiesburg at this moment. TDS on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 CC is def showing debris in the air in Hattiesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Hattiesburg wx radio had been out. Tornado tracked through south part of Hattiesburg into Petal. Got a bad feeling about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Major damage in Hattiesburg with injuries from multiple chasers in the area, large tornado continues on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 450 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ALC023-129-MSC153-211115- /O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170121T1115Z/ CHOCTAW AL-WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS- 450 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES... AT 450 AM CST, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WAYNESBORO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 459 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ALC023-129-MSC153-211115- /O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170121T1115Z/ CHOCTAW AL-WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS- 459 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES... AT 455 AM CST, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WAYNESBORO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! IN ADDITION TO THIS DANGEROUS STORM, A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF OVETT, OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF RICHTON, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS SECOND STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WILL BE NEAR WAYNESBORO AND BUCKATUNNA AROUND 515 AM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 still on ground..may have hot Waynesboro too ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 506 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... * UNTIL 545 AM CST * AT 506 AM CST, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SILAS, OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAYNESBORO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 fire station hit in hattiesburg William Cary University hit, including a boys dorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 still on ground EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 518 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ALC023-025-211145- /O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170121T1145Z/ CHOCTAW AL-CLARKE AL- 518 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM CST FOR CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES... AT 518 AM CST, A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TOXEY, OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF BUTLER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 stores right in small strip mall near Walmart in Petal destroyed , pics just on WDAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 fatalities in Hattiesburg so far per WDAM. They expect the total to rise also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Two different areas with 10% tornado probabilities, one hatched with mention of possible moderate risk upgrade. Going to be a busy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11... VALID 211341Z - 211515Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT INCLUDING A TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS WW 11 THIS MORNING. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON TO THE EAST OF WW 11 FOR PARTS OF WEST, SOUTHWEST, AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS AND ASSOCIATED MESOLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA, WITH THE MESOLOW NOW LOCATED NEAR OR NORTH OF SEM. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THE MESOLOW INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM MOISTENING OF THE ENVIRONMENT INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST, WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 IN EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA) FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. GIVEN THE SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS, THE DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE WARM FRONT (E.G. TROUP COUNTY, GA) AND THE WARM SECTOR, AS WELL AS ALONG TWO BANDS OF STORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WILL POSE A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS THIS MORNING (ACROSS WW 11) AND ACROSS PARTS OF GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Tornado warning just issued for the LaGrange area moving toward the far southern Atlanta suburbs.....pretty nice rotation showing up as well, wouldn't be surprised if there was a tornado on the ground when this image was current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELMORE COUNTY... At 758 AM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Emerald Mountain, or near Wetumpka, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 801 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ALC051-211430- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170121T1430Z/ ELMORE AL- 801 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN ELMORE COUNTY... AT 801 AM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WETUMPKA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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