SouthCoastMA Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 The earlier runs showing a day 8/9 miller B had a high pressure in Quebec. We lost that in the past few runs..and now it's just a torching cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 36 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Good post Tip. I think the storm early next week--around hr 130-- def still bears watching considering the theme of the season to develop a secondary along the coast. A -NAO and an "early bloomer" over central plains certainly helps the case. I think we're seeing a very active pattern (chaos) causing chaos in the model solutions. exactly ...there's that too. What part of the history of using weather forecast models leads folks to believe changing the pattern is inherently leading to improved model performance - heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If tonight crushes 495 and rains here on the heels of the CJ, then we revert to December's nina garbage in the extended, I'm going to need a break from the board. Ray, feelings are like treasures. So bury them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The earlier runs showing a day 8/9 miller B had a high pressure in Quebec. We lost that in the past few runs..and now it's just a torching cutter thing is ... in terms of general concept, there is still a high N. it's just not as closely spaced to events traversing toward the NE from the SW as previous runs. that's still important, because it really appears that it is the handling the NAO in this case ...causing transitive issues everywhere. NAO not handled right leads to configuration changes that lead to less or more timely confluence leading to critical changes in both high position and magnitude and timing and geography... It's all related.. The PNA part of this still appears well behaved. no one would argue that we are cold air challenged, ...that was part in parcel why the -NAO was necessitated.. remove that factor, big fart sound - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If tonight crushes 495 and rains here on the heels of the CJ, then we revert to December's nina garbage in the extended, I'm going to need a break from the board. I don't see anything concerning for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Oh man saturday has big potential here. Thank you anticyclonic wave breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't see anything concerning for Feb. No....just a breather, so I don't clog threads w dribble...no winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No....just a breather, so I don't clog threads w dribble...no winter cancel. This whole hiatus is pretty much going as planned despite a few wild runs trying to bring in something later this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: This whole hiatus is pretty much going as planned despite a few wild runs trying to bring in something later this weekend. who planned it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: who planned it? ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: ?? going as who planned? did they plan an interior snowstorm tonight, plans I saw had 50s last you talked about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Lol at the CMC for next week....Finally nice to see the GFS at 384 look less like a 2 day cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 GGEM with a crack run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GGEM with a crack run Maybe it's right Tellies support it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Maybe it's right Tellies support it Maybe the Jets will win the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 We coastal, we snow outside Route 190 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe the Jets will win the Super Bowl. Tellies don't support that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: going as who planned? did they plan an interior snowstorm tonight, plans I saw had 50s last you talked about it? Going as planned/modeled how ever you want to call it. Whether it's 40 or 55....the overall hiatus was modeled well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Tellies don't support that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 23 hours ago, JC-CT said: I've given up on winter. Until February, that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 It's a dubious insert, Scott - sounds like ur trying to wind people up? ...okay if so... I do that all the time. HA! But if we "planned" the weekend/beyond period of time with no impact from a modulating NAO than fine - but I don't believe that was the case ... Look folks, the operational runs backed off of NAO look - that's all that's happened there for that period of time. If that verifies, that's the way it goes. But no one "planned" to have the NAO impact the runs, than... magically stop impacting the runs ... across a wind-up moods, 24 hour f -fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 New euro is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: New euro is amazing LOL, What the hell is it doing? Day 7 has a low emerging off the NC/VA coast 996mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL, What the hell is it doing? Day 7 has a low emerging off the NC/VA coast 996mb. Im taking about the long duration blizzard for me this weekend lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL, What the hell is it doing? Day 7 has a low emerging off the NC/VA coast 996mb. it is uneasyingly comical.. You know what that looks like? It looks like a -NAO with no cold air... in JANUARY! Nice - GW ftw ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Euro rains to Maine this run 4-6" of rain in New Eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro rains to Maine this run 4-6" of rain in New Eng shut'em down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a dubious insert, Scott - sounds like ur trying to wind people up? ...okay if so... I do that all the time. HA! But if we "planned" the weekend/beyond period of time with no impact from a modulating NAO than fine - but I don't believe that was the case ... Look folks, the operational runs backed off of NAO look - that's all that's happened there for that period of time. If that verifies, that's the way it goes. But no one "planned" to have the NAO impact the runs, than... magically stop impacting the runs ... across a wind-up moods, 24 hour f -fest I'm not doing anything. Just saying the hiatus from cold and snow (with the exception of tonight's thing) had been modeled well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 15 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Ah the St. Valentine's Day massacre as we call it at GYX. For whatever reason our forecasts just kept increasing and increasing, and I was helpless at home to stop it. As for the snow depth that month, probably a lot to do with the wind. And wind is one of the two biggest factors in the perceived "settling" of snow. Wind obviously compacts the snow by shattering crystals. Temps (and RH) can actually alter the crystal structure and allow compaction that way. It was probably cold and dry enough during that stretch to sublimate some of the snow pack too. The 2/2 storm was windy and we had some lesser wind with the VD bust, but beyond that, my recollection was cold, clear, calm wx. Also dry - diurnal range averaged 26.6 with no major frontal rockets/plummets, so sublimation was certainly in play, though having the pack with a net decline 2/2 thru end of month remains an oddity. Some of that decline was inevitable due to settling, as 1/30-2/2 saw two storms bring 16" of 15:1 snow, but we had storms of 4.7" and 5.5" (plus a number of under 2" events) later that month and still lost depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 What a torch next week on the euro. Napelodeon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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