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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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Folks should be prepared for model cycles that look ecstatic ...differently, depending upon cycle and run.. .

The take away for the time being is that the interval is pretty loudly signaled as we've outlined and obviously as time goes by we'll get a better notion on what to focus in on in terms of specific dates; maybe as soon as by week's end.

I tell you... the GGEM has a 2.5 day long moderate to heavy constant snowing coastal monter for Albany, and would likely bring 18 hours of it to Boston toward the end. Probably 40" worth. 

Again, ...specific model type biases detonating bombs based upon numerical instability period of time, for the time being.

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One thing I am also noticing is that the heights ... the 582 dm contour for example, has descended to S to align closer to the 25th to 30th parallels, prior to much of these model evolutions - its indicative of the long awaited and NECESSARY circumstance to allow more important events to evolve -  ..i'm like, f finally man.  most models engage in that sort of generalized recession/relaxation in that balloon bursting from the deep south. 

unrelated - I'm not sure that was truly related to the -PNA either.  it seemed to be almost as though the seasonal retardation in the normal cooling rates of the subtropical band everywhere around the girdle of the hemisphere.  It was doing that out in the Pacific all the way from S of Japan to the Baja of California to Cuba to west Africa ... Interesting..

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15 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Do the historians here think the euro shows some resemblance to a less steroidal December 92?

...mm, nah.

Will is probably the guy to ask but just from my having experienced it as a Met student at the time, I don't see a lot of similarities.  There are also products out there that rank analogs - I just don't have any bookmarked.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's your forecast for the next 10 days? Good luck, where are you?

that's what we've mostly experienced in January so far, and the 10 day isn't all that different.  Not a single high temp below 32F.  I'm in Orwell, VT, southern end of Lake Champlain.

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yet again, zones are dropping my high temps Thurs-Mon.  Now most days are upper 30s.  Yesterday morn they were low 40s, last eve they were 40 on the nose.  The 4-7 day period has trended cooler for a few days now.  We're gonna be back in the good stuff before we know it.  Maybe by next Mon-Tues.  Oh, and a Winter Storm Watch here...looks like 4-10 in the zone.

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In theory ...yeah.  (actually it's an interesting question re the dew point mathematics).

You know it's funny, no one (or effort that I am aware) has ever put out a formal refereed paper that titled:  "Regional North American snow cover modulating low level thickness effect on evolution of cyclogenesis"    

?

why - it seems it's come up as an operational meteorological aspect on enough occasions. AFD's talk about snow pack drainage, or cold nights/radiative over snow pack then feeding back into CAD...  it's obviously factor-able.  Maybe it's just one of things where everyone knows it is what it is and we move on. 

Anyway, it's true but ...that's also something like that is in that Ekman layer of uncertainty where the models typically can't resolve those type of physical inter-plays so close to the ground.

I've generally always thought of it as an air mass will moderate less over the snow pack versus bare ground. Cold will stay colder, longer. 

Obviously with the strong high you'll also have the f-gen from WAA into the cold dome, and CAD as you precipitate into the low level dry air mass and wet bulb. Where you truly maximize is if you get the high in the right place and low level E flow enhances the drain down the east slopes. 

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9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I've generally always thought of it as an air mass will moderate less over the snow pack versus bare ground. Cold will stay colder, longer. 

Obviously with the strong high you'll also have the f-gen from WAA into the cold dome, and CAD as you precipitate into the low level dry air mass and wet bulb. Where you truly maximize is if you get the high in the right place and low level E flow enhances the drain down the east slopes. 

mm hm... yup, same here. Pretty basic really... If a marginal air mass is in place and tending to be back-built by increasing PP, a snow pack ain't hurtin'  heh. That's basically the gist of what Jay was getting after and I was agreeing with him in my usual loquacious tendency..

haha. 

But ... my personal belief is that a marginal air mass moving over a region with a snow pack, and a clear night... modulates the sfc to 1300 m - sort of a microcosm of the crysophere theoretic up N ... I mean, why should the physics be any different on a clear, superb radiational cooling night over a snow pack.  I suspect if we took the same air mass and exposed it to bare ground versus the other .. there'd be some measurable difference even if minor.

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WPC map is scrumptious for early next week.  Big TV low spawning a secondary on the midatlantic coast with high pressure in E Canada.  Lets hope the cold is enough...the isobars show a bit of damming.  Looks like a low in the ne part of the maritimes, and combined with a High nudging down from Quebec, we would seem to have confluence.  Is there some blocking up towards Greenland to slow this whole thing down?

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