dendrite Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 31 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The 18z GFS is keying in on the southern stream disturbance energy in the sub tropical jet stream, if ridging gets better out west, we could be in for a better Monday coastal storm. We still have 84-96 hours left before it comes. Monday? It looks like crap this run. The vorticity is all strung out with no consolidated max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Monday? It looks like crap this run. The vorticity is all strung out with no consolidated max. I just have to ask...what does James look at to come up with the ideas that he has? He says the system for Monday looks better, And then a MET chimes in and completely says the opposite of what he just said lol. I mean is he just wishcasting these ideas? Cuz according to him, every system looks good, or is looking better. I'm at a loss for words for what James is seeing(or not seeing).?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Trying to extrapolate an H5 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I just have to ask...what does James look at to come up with the ideas that he has? He says the system for Monday looks better, And then a MET chimes in and completely says the opposite of what he just said lol. I mean is he just wishcasting these ideas? Cuz according to him, every system looks good, or is looking better. I'm at a loss for words for what James is seeing(or not seeing).?? Yes JD, the southern stream system is getting more and more involved every run on the GFS, the question then becomes do they phase the northern stream and southern streams together, or do they stay separate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes JD, the southern stream system is getting more and more involved every run on the GFS, the question then becomes do they phase the northern stream and southern streams together, or do they stay separate? I'm not finding the GFS too inspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 GFS shows a better Wednesday system, but the Monday system is closer to us, so therefore needs more of our time, such a dynamic upper level trough in place, problem is the axis is tilted positively. The shortwave that impacts our southern stream system comes through the northern stream into the northern US around hour 18, so within 18 hours we will have a better understanding of the dynamics at play. If by hour 18 comes along and provides no changes, I will let this system go. There are multiple shortwaves coming off the Pacific Ocean into British Columbia that is keeping the PNA ridging subdued and unable to amplify, giving a less amplified trough even though the disturbance is diving all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. I think the models are being too progressive with the pacific shortwaves and will not allow the PNA ridge to amplify enough to impact the downstream troughing over the eastern US. This will need to change. Also that PV north of Quebec, Canada is retrograding towards Hudson Bay, Canada, what if it is supposed to be further west than currently modeled, the baroclinic zone wouldn't be as far replaced as it is currently modeled. We need to watch any changes in the H5 synoptic scale setup features. I honestly like the Wednesday system more, but I can't just stop keeping an eye on the Monday system for any surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 20 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I honestly like the Wednesday system more, but I can't just stop keeping an eye on the Monday system for any surprises. For the love of all things holy, shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 20 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I honestly like the Wednesday system more, but I can't just stop keeping an eye on the Monday system for any surprises. Fair enough James. BTW, JB says if the Euro weeklies forecast of the EPO going positive is right in 2.5 weeks, then it's the kiss of death for winter lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, WinterWolf said: Fair enough James. BTW, JB says if the Euro weeklies forecast of the EPO going positive is right in 2.5 weeks, then it's the kiss of death for winter lol!! If we haven't had a decent storm by then, I'd welcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: I just have to ask...what does James look at to come up with the ideas that he has? He says the system for Monday looks better, And then a MET chimes in and completely says the opposite of what he just said lol. I mean is he just wishcasting these ideas? Cuz according to him, every system looks good, or is looking better. I'm at a loss for words for what James is seeing(or not seeing).?? Do you really have to ask? He's basically seeing what he thinks or wants to happen the actual analysis is Monday looks like crap... and it looked a bit better for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 What is wrong with you Ray? You seriously have a complex. I am just giving my thoughts. If you have a problem with that go away. Seriously. If I don't want to read people's thoughts on here because you are talking politics I just go somewhere else. Its that simple. Anyways I like the 00z NAM look, getting closer to something serious for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Do you really have to ask? He's basically seeing what he thinks or wants to happen the actual analysis is Monday looks like crap... and it looked a bit better for Wednesday Its out of control. He needs to be restricted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Ya me too. But he (JB) said that there's a lot going on up to that point with regard to storm potential. Hes not changing his forecast he said...but he said he's rattled by the Euro showing a positive EPO. Said if that's accurate..it's over at that point. Oh well, whatever!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What is wrong with you Ray? You seriously have a complex. I am just giving my thoughts. If you have a problem with that go away. Seriously. If I don't want to read people's thoughts on here because you are talking politics I just go somewhere else. Its that simple. Anyways I like the 00z NAM look, getting closer to something serious for Monday. Your rapid fire BS analysis is extremely aggravating. Take the time to learn, abd post less. If you can't take the time to do that, then piss off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 The actual analysis you people need to understand for Monday goes like this: "The pattern is close to producing something greater than modeled." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Your rapid fire BS analysis is extremely aggravating. Take the time to learn, abd post less. If you can't take the time to do that, then piss off. I'm learning everyday Ray, which is why the Pattern screams potential. If I said we have a potent northern stream shortwave potential and the coastal could develop on Monday than I would take that pattern and run with it. But you see the negative potential all the time, you can't be positive than there is something wrong within you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm learning everyday Ray, which is why the Pattern screams potential. If I said we have a potent northern stream shortwave potential and the coastal could develop on Monday than I would take that pattern and run with it. But you see the negative potential all the time, you can't be positive than there is something wrong within you. If you simply want to be positive, attend a motivational interviewing seminar. This is a weather forum, where meteorology is discussed. -Positivity at the expense of objectivity is stupidity- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The actual analysis you people need to understand for Monday goes like this: "The pattern is close to producing something greater than modeled." There is a distinct difference between factual/objective analysis and wishcasting. Your not being objective with your analysis of what the models are showing. We're not trying to diminish your thoughts but we will point out when you are inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 The uneasy feeling of entering Feb without a siggy event for SNE... with street fights breaking out at Fenway bars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Snowy Wednesday on tonight's gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Snowy Wednesday on tonight's gfs. Yup. Not a bad look at this lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What is wrong with you Ray? You seriously have a complex. I am just giving my thoughts. If you have a problem with that go away. Seriously. If I don't want to read people's thoughts on here because you are talking politics I just go somewhere else. Its that simple. Anyways I like the 00z NAM look, getting closer to something serious for Monday. A nice little science project: Gather your many thoughts recorded here over time, link them to to their more or less non-existent verification, and then swear off thinking until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you simply want to be positive, attend a motivational interviewing seminar. This is a weather forum, where meteorology is discussed. -Positivity at the expense of objectivity is stupidity- Positivity around here is only going to burn you around here. If only because climo says big events are not likely. And if you keep looking for those warning events you end up like Eyewall, walking the streets of Burlington looking for a poodle to punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 From Radarman in Squaw and a Loveland drift holy shiat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Positivity around here is only going to burn you around here. If only because climo says big events are not likely. And if you keep looking for those warning events you end up like Eyewall, walking the streets of Burlington looking for a poodle to punt. This works fine for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Super Bowl storm about to come out of the oven in GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: From Radarman in Squaw and a Loveland drift holy shiat Powderfreak has picnic table envy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Canadian is meh for the midweek clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Steve, those pice are incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: From Radarman in Squaw and a Loveland drift holy shiat I miss Squaw Valley...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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