OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Close to 1.0"+ qpf for the region, Qpf won't be an issue Definitely not with that kind of easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The Euro should be very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: So toss all this and forecast "man" snow blue bomb? Rip and read. Oh wait, that's my office... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Definitely not with that kind of easterly flow. I could always use more way up this way haha. Already a QPF concern over temps lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Definitely not with that kind of easterly flow. Big moisture influx from the gulf and atlantic, This may end up being a big event for here and the interior of the region if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Of course they always tend to spit the bit because they are crap to begin with. I'll be curious to see what the Bufkit soundings look like for that near coast area where it could be a blue bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Could be some light snizzle off and on Monday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 So this is now Sunday event vs Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Woah, hr 120 is snow for dxr off pivotal soundings, after fighting the mix line. Yo es intruiged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, you would think we would have the plug-in installed to view those, but alas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So this is now Sunday event vs Monday? More like Mon/Tue. You OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 40 minutes ago, Hoth said: Big Euro run incoming. biggest of our lives It is nice to see the GFS move to the Euro/CMC group early on as opposed to things being so uncertain 24 hours out. I see the Gem seems a bit warmer than the 0z run was and bring rain for a bit up this way. Weaker with the Friday system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So this is now Sunday event vs Monday? Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: More like Mon/Tue. You OK? Drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Could be some light snizzle off and on Monday too. Strong onshore flow...yeah. Could be an easterly terrain light snow enhancement in that set up...where you have the moisture but very little dynamics yet, so the terrain starts playing a bigger role. Anyways, this could be pretty interesting if we continue to see that high setup with the ridiculous inflow at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 MOre like into Tuesday. Kevin is usually off by one day in his interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Strong onshore flow...yeah. Could be an easterly terrain light snow enhancement in that set up...where you have the moisture but very little dynamics yet, so the terrain starts playing a bigger role. Anyways, this could be pretty interesting if we continue to see that high setup with the ridiculous inflow at all levels. Bit of a coastal front up here and temp grad along the sfc cold nose too so maybe some upglide there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Question.. would this potentially affect the warmup that had been progged after the storm if it takes a colder, more offshore track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I can't help but think if you continue to see this type of cold in the low levels, we're gonna see the mid-levels tick colder too...it's an anecdotel observation from my own end, but in all my years of forecasting, I've noticed frequently that you'll see something like a big 900mb cold wedge and the warm layer at 800mb starts to cool as models get closer and realize that the cold wedge is deeper....especially when we're talking that type of anticyclone in the mid-levels to the north of Maine. Yup ... you ignored my reply to you the other day, ... (J/K..) but yes, I was noting the same sort of phenomenon - I was citing and example of an April Nor-easter though; and how they tend to first pop up in extended/mid ranges as a fetid air mass ..but then the "real" cold isn't picked up until near terms. Not sure if it's the same exact phenomenon you describe but it sounds a lot like it. Bottom line, I'm always suspicious of a 540 dm with a high up there. The models are notorious too warm with the sounding at this range - probably the simplest way to put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 GEFS look wintry too. Mean is pretty far SE, but lots of warm air aloft ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 35 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Man the GFS is awfully close to snow at BDL. Hopefully it stops right here then - j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS look wintry too. Mean is pretty far SE, but lots of warm air aloft ahead of it. Have to keep that GGEM stall loop in the back of the mind too, GEFS do show a transient extension of the Canadian block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Have to keep that GGEM stall loop in the back of the mind too, GEFS do show a transient extension of the Canadian block GGEM loops everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 GGEMGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: MOre like into Tuesday. Kevin is usually off by one day in his interpretation. Although sometimes these things speed up a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GGEM loops everything. Well it was first on the colder look this time, but anyways thats not my point dexter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS look wintry too. Mean is pretty far SE, but lots of warm air aloft ahead of it. You ain't kiddin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 GEFS precip through 132. Soaker, last frame, EM is mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 46 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this had the potential to be a bruiser for the coast. now it's just a pretty ordinary nor'easter Solid observation of a subtle modeling trend ... I noticed that the low in general has a peaked structural look really early. Like, the 500mb maxes out way SW and the whole trough is filling by the time it pass us.. That's true - All of these may be physically connected to the weakened baroclinicity over the east. This system is has very little low level thickness gradients and as we know that will effect deepening rates for a myriad of feed-back causes. That can be overcome though ... the key difference between the "epicosity" of the earlier runs and these recent trends may come down to correctly sampling that straight zonal impactor that slams into the southern California coast in 36 hours... It may be wishy washy, but I wouldn't be shocked if that thing's strength is missing some as it slices/punches really ...east through the deep south. It could mean a stronger resulting mid level closure like earlier runs and ... then it's a its a different ball game. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Lucky, St. John's Newfoundland looks like after their through his monster blizzard this weekend another snowstorm next week. They got hit on Monday night too with 30 plus centimetres of snow. What I would give for a monster blizzard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.