donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem snowmap has around an inch for the area Here it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Looks like a nice surprise tomorrow with around a inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 We'll probably get 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 The RGEM had some sort of odd mini max over the immediate NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 27 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That's so weird, just when I thought it's not going to snow now it will. I love these models....NOT GFS looks good for an inch! huh? GFS is .02 LE.......... that's a dusting on cold surfaces tops if anything hi- res nams most bullish with about .2 LE, decent 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: huh? GFS is .02 LE.......... that's a dusting on cold surfaces tops if anything hi- res nams most bullish with about .2 LE, decent 1-2" Don't get mad cause you not going to see any flakes jk Man how's that leg? edit: ukmet looks good for an inch for our area. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That's so weird, just when I thought it's not going to snow now it will. I love these models....NOT GFS looks good for an inch! But you said it's dead...and a few days ago your call was even bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, seanick said: But you said it's dead...and a few days ago your call was even bigger. I was dead wrong but I'm happy we're getting at least something. I thought we were getting a swfl that would have a low reinforced off the coast of North Carolina but instead it's cutting. Didn't think the high pressure would break apart and move into Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 24 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I was dead wrong but I'm happy we're getting at least something. I thought we were getting a swfl (swfe*) that would have a low reinforced off the coast of North Carolina but instead it's cutting. Didn't think the high pressure would break apart and move into Bermuda. It hasn't happened yet lol, and trust me I've seen over 3 feet of snow hit the ground this season (granted 1 was a road trip) I'm not upset missing out on mood flakes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It hasn't happened yet lol, and trust me I've seen over 3 feet of snow hit the ground this season (granted 1 was a road trip) I'm not upset missing out on mood flakes lol This isn't going to be mood flakes this looks like a 1-2 inch snow event. (Fluff) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Euro also bumped north I'm hoping for at least an inch or two out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Navgem and Rgem bumped more north and wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 New Srefs are 1"-2" for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 26/9 currently. I'm expecting mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 NAM looks good for 1"-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 SREF Plume for LGA is just 0.25" of snow and so the observer there will have to dress as Sherlock Holmes and lug a 3 foot magnifying glass around to find it. WPC is 10% or less chance of even an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Hot off the press the 12z gfs. Place to be later today is apparently in the Poconos for a fresh coating to a inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Where is everyone seeing 1-2"? Are you expecting 20:1 ratios? Lol... even the hi-res Nam is .05-.1" LE, are we really rounding up and wishcasting a snow shower event.... we're talking about a well timed swath of snow. No larger than Long Island Itself, not to mention you realize your gonna need to saturate before you see anything out of this blob moving west right? It's extremely dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Last night hi res Nam vs today hi res Nam, its gotten drier, and much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Don't misinterpret my posts as negative, I'm only saying the models themselves are not favorable for more than 1"... we've seen these things overperform time and time again, wherever you have a boundary set up, you have the possibility of some good snow to break out, my call is just that I don't think anyone north of central jersey hits 2" my call is dusting to 1" for NYC area, but it's NOT impossible for a decent band to push past and drop some good rates, or coastal enhancement... that's all... I'm not jealous, mad, upset, or any of that lol... if that strip was setting up 60 miles north I'd be expressing The same concerns up here for my area *also I would like to note I think the best local shot at seeing more that 1" is long islands south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 really surprised to see these weenie 1-2 inch amounts being projected for this on the board when every forecaster and their mother is saying coating to an inch if that. Im at 33 already and the ground is warm from the past two days and this snow will be light, good luck with accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 51 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Don't misinterpret my posts as negative, I'm only saying the models themselves are not favorable for more than 1"... we've seen these things overperform time and time again, wherever you have a boundary set up, you have the possibility of some good snow to break out, my call is just that I don't think anyone north of central jersey hits 2" my call is dusting to 1" for NYC area, but it's NOT impossible for a decent band to push past and drop some good rates, or coastal enhancement... that's all... I'm not jealous, mad, upset, or any of that lol... if that strip was setting up 60 miles north I'd be expressing The same concerns up here for my area *also I would like to note I think the best local shot at seeing more that 1" is long islands south shore Notice just exactly who is calling for more then a dusting. I'm usually pretty positive, not this time. This is a virga fest. Even if the column manages to saturate enough to allow a few mangled flakes to reach the ground we will never come close to achieving rates heavy enough to accumulate. There's a reason flurries do not accumulate. if anyone within 20 miles of NYC receives more then an inch I'll be amazed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 I'm just stating what the models show. To be honest I haven't been interested in this event due to dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Lots of plows out around here. At least they are being cautious. 32 and cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Based on the latest radar presentations and the guidance, I'm thinking most of the area 40 miles on either side of a line running from northeastern NJ across Long Island will pick up a coating of snow (0.5" or less). There may be a few 1" amounts, but those will be widely scattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 the radar looks quite juicy actually,just by a quick glance you can tell it bumped north with its precip shield. it may not be out of the possibilty of this being more then just a dusting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Allentown had snow reach the ground surprisingly fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Allentown had snow reach the ground surprisingly fast just look at those echoes pushing this way. no one has mentioned how much forcing is actually going on here,literally squeezing all that precip out into cold air. the radar looks great for our area currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: really surprised to see these weenie 1-2 inch amounts being projected for this on the board when every forecaster and their mother is saying coating to an inch if that. Im at 33 already and the ground is warm from the past two days and this snow will be light, good luck with accumulations Amen. Was walking around in a T-Shirt at night 2 days ago. This will be a wet ground "event". Congrats to car tops and grass, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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