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Bob Chill

1/14 - 15 Minor Snow and Ice Threat

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Question: (I apologize in advance if this is considered Banter or just Stupid in general)  Do certain models do better historically based on the direction the storms come in from in terms of accuracy?  Example:  GFS does better with generally south to north storms as opposed to Euro doing better west to east storms.   I creep the boards constantly and I really appreciate all the help.  In fact, you guys saved me from a disastrous trip to Richmond last weekend where I would have been snowed in with my in-laws. Thanks in advance!

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Probably. Good sign for locations further north. Especially if the GFS is too warm. I'm hugging the euro until another model gives me more snow. 

        There is no shortage of cases in which the GFS runs too warm at the sfc with low-level inversions, especially in winter precip events.    

 

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9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Bob, idk about south with the CMC, more like just weaker

 

He's referring to that first push of precip before 18Z on Saturday-- the main snow part for us. That remains south in VA and is rain anyway for southern parts of the state.  

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17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Bob, idk about south with the CMC, more like just weaker

gem_asnow_neus_20.png

That little stripe of snow across MD on the GGEM is actually from the second impulse Saturday Night into Sunday.  By then the temps are compromised more, although if things keep trending colder perhaps that second wave becomes a player also.  On the euro and gfs its the first wave Saturday that is the main event.  GGEM goes well south and has no frozen with that.  Also weaker and south in this case are kind of the same thing as a more suppressed weak solution is likely to be south.  Notice on the GEFS and Euro members, the ones that are south have a less healthy snowfall max, while some of the runs that have it up over central PA have a pretty significant event up there.  A stronger wave is also likely to have a more north track.  So we are kind of walking the line again, we want a weak enough wave to stay south but not too weak.  Our best combo would be a healthy wave but with a stronger high and cold push to offset but that is kind of getting greedy.  

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and of course the GGEM which has given us the most snow this winter gives us nothing for this system. Seems like everything is going well

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6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Interesting to see that the misses miss north as opposed to what we saw on the Ukie/GGEM

I wonder if that could be because the GFS is not recognizing the strength of the cold weather push like the NAM is?

ETA: Or the answer could be what high risk just posted below

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1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Interesting to see that the misses miss north as opposed to what we saw on the Ukie/GGEM

      I'm guessing those are "misses" in terms of the precip being ZR/IP instead of SN, as opposed to QPF misses, but I'm too lazy to verify.....

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Weekend rule.  It's HAPPENING!

It is weird how that seems to work out.  I'll take a 2-4" daytime snow over 4-8" nighttime.  This seems to be the year of the stalled out front.  I have a feeling we won't know much until tomorrow with that kind of setup where it's not a big storm, but one that requires good timing/placement.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Euro moved south from 0z. Nothing in MD through 12z Sat. NW va gets around .10 or less. 

wonder if that blob of moisture at 12z ever makes it north into the colder air on the euro?

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

wonder if that blob of moisture at 12z ever makes it north into the colder air on the euro?

It does, but looks like it weakens some

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