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1/14 - 15 Minor Snow and Ice Threat


Bob Chill

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I've noticed the hrrr always lags on its snowfall and precip totals looking at Sim radar..by s few hours it seems.

 

I could be wrong though

Here in Baltimore, Im expecting to be high and dry until at least 10AM....there is basically zero model support for a 4AM start time up this way.

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Qpf looks to warrant those high numbers.. depends on temps though .



Yea, HRRR has been pretty steady suggesting 0.3" through the end of the run with temps below freezing. Other guidance earlier had me in the mid 30s tomorrow afternoon - HRRR has been on a heater this winter so I hope it's wintry depiction is right.

HRRR keeps you below freezing so whatever falls will at least be frozen.
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No icing probs anticipated in Dale City, 45 degrees, 30 dewpoint. Some light rain/ light sleet. Low tonight should be 37 degrees with highs Saturday in the mid 40s.

Road services ppl down here panic to the point of cardiac arrest every time someone mentions winter weather, roads are brined lol.

All brined for a 2 day light regular rain. LMAO!

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1 minute ago, Jebman said:

No icing probs anticipated in Dale City, 45 degrees, 30 dewpoint. Some light rain/ light sleet. Low tonight should be 37 degrees with highs Saturday in the mid 40s.

Road services ppl down here panic to the point of cardiac arrest every time someone mentions winter weather, roads are brined lol.

All brined for a 2 day light regular rain. LMAO!

Such a waste of resources sometimes...Granted the 'event' hasnt happened yet but I could tell since earlier today that this was likely to be a bust in Baltimore.

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12 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Such a waste of resources sometimes...Granted the 'event' hasnt happened yet but I could tell since earlier today that this was likely to be a bust in Baltimore.

If its a bust in Balto, it will likely bust down here.

BTW - Kudos on the last storm - You stated about the DRY AIR last storm and you were absolutely correct.

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2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

If its a bust in Balto, it will likely bust down here.

BTW - Kudos on the last storm - You stated about the DRY AIR last storm and you were absolutely correct.

Thanks...Somehow, dry air will also be an issue with this one lol...at least this far north for me. But this is failing simply because its a WAA event with marginal cold and light precip. Never a great recipe around here for much

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13 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

How much of that is frozen lol

Not nearly enough of course. Looks like a band of sleet through 7am dc burbs and zr northern tier tomorrow evening on the panels. Hard to say when precip falls across the northern tier so zr is a guess on my part based on the 6 hour panels. 

From the med into short range the euro is looking to end up way too dry and obviously too cold. The gfs was always the warmest model in the med to short range and was consistently showing between .2-.5 through the area. Have to wait until verification but the gfs looks to have performed the best between the globals with this one. 

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Light regular rain continues. No accretion is apparent due to relatively mild ground; temperature is down to 39 but the dewpoint is 33.

We should continue to receive regular light rain thru the next 24 to 30 hours.

 

Low will be 37 degrees. No sleet, freezing rain or snow is expected.

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Temperature is 36 degrees. We are experiencing a moderate fall of sleet and some sizable wet snowflakes mixing in.

My car top is getting coated by sleet and slush.

If this intensity keeps up - sleet and snow may accumulate on my car top and even on my driveway!!!!!!!

I'm in shock - I never expected anything in Dale City except for regular rain and temperatures are already below what I thought would be tonights low.

 

I just noticed that the surface reflectivities on the road in front of my house are changing markedly - what happens when sleet and snow begin to accumulate. Side roads may deteriorate quite a bit. The plain rain earlier may also have washed away much of the brine on the main roads which may lead to some slick main roads by 6am.

The road in front of my house - in plain rain the road sort of glistens. But as the sleet and some snowflakes continue, the road is turning a flat black sort of color - and that is what happens before it goes over to white.

This is MUCH MORE THAN WHAT I WAS EXPECTING. I was expecting light regular rain with a few sleet pellets thrown in.

The top of my car is turning outright white.

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On 1/11/2017 at 10:56 AM, yoda said:

12z GFS soundings from 69-78 are snow at DCA... 81 is sleet

In case we ever get the idea the "GFS is deadly inside 72"...or "it's a lock"...this is where we were 72 hours ago.  we are never good to go until the day of the event.  You guys know this but I am learning it more for every event. Last event dry air, this event temps.  

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

In case we ever get the idea the "GFS is deadly inside 72"...or "it's a lock"...this is where we were 72 hours ago.  we are never good to go until the day of the event.  You guys know this but I am learning it more for every event. Last event dry air, this event temps.  

To be fair to the GFS all the models have had issues with this setup to some degree. And can you blame them? Talking about impulses influencing each other that are running across a boundary that has been sinking slowly south. Not exactly a slam dunk setup to be forecasting.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

To be fair to the GFS all the models have had issues with this setup to some degree. And can you blame them? Talking about impulses influencing each other that are running across a boundary that has been sinking slowly south. Not exactly a slam dunk setup to be forecasting.

I know weather is complicated and it was a tough setup.  But it seems most of our potential events are complicated.  My post was more of a reminder to myself not to get my hopes up even inside 72.  I just wanted this little event to materialize before the relax period that may last for a while.  

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 I just wanted this little event to materialize before the relax period that may last for a while.  



7 days isn't that long to wait. This pattern relax looks brief. Things become convoluted later next weekend. May take a little longer for surface features to react but the pattern certainly doesn't look to stay tame for very long.

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I know weather is complicated and it was a tough setup.  But it seems most of our potential events are complicated.  My post was more of a reminder to myself not to get my hopes up even inside 72.  I just wanted this little event to materialize before the relax period that may last for a while.  

One thing that I learned years ago is that complicated for our region in most cases means NO SNOW!!! :) 

If the models are accurate I don't think you will have such a long wait before you are up and tracking again. Heck our next possible trackable is showing up at day 8-9 though the odds of seeing a significant snow from it are slim at this time. Immediately after that the looks being thrown out are very good. 

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