ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Wxsim for NW Chesco for our next in a series of winter "events" Flurries most of tomorrow PM with mainly light IP by 630pm with a high tomorrow at 31.4. The light IP with mix with and change to ZR pretty quickly with temps very slowly rising to freezing by 5am on Wednesday...at that time 0.43" has fallen as frozen or freezing. Then rain after that. After this.... our next winter event is on the horizon by Saturday evening with rain transitioning to some Heavy Sleet (heck this could be our biggest snow (sleet) event so far this year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Wxsim is either going to score a huge win or fail miserably today. Chance for an afternoon flurry/snow shower....I agree. But precipitation is slow to move in tonight. Couple this with ripping Southerly winds, a sub 985slp over the Great Lakes, and return flow around HP headed to Bermuda and I can only see this being frozen for a short period. Mos data has our area above freezing at the surface by around midnight. Sleet pellets and icy patches? Yes. 0.43" frozen precipitation? Not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 WXSIM with 6z GFS/NAM continuing to show it's cold bias in these situations with a forecast of off and on flurries all day today and then steadier IP/ZR by 630pm this evening with all frozen through 730am tomorrow morning - with 0.46" or precip falling with temps below freezing. Agreed Ralph it will fail today!!....I even ran the forecast without the snow cover to see if that was influencing it's surface temps....but it is stubborn with the temps overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 looks like we may be hit by that snow snow squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 That area of precip to our west has held together pretty well. Any reports of it reaching the ground or is it just virga?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Mainly virga, still very dry. Definitely not a squall line as noted. WAA flurries/snow showers associated with the warm front. Wxsim should get this part of the forecast correct :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 It is reaching the ground with Fountain Dale down to 0.5 mi visibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Still virga here in Fleetwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Moderate virga here in NW Chesco!! temp 27.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 25 with light snow at times DP@13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 unbelievable it is literally drying up as it gets to philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: unbelievable it is literally drying up as it gets to philly. Last couple radar frames heading into/around Philly are horrible. Poooff...disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 The models did show this area drying up before reaching us, that's why I was a little surprised when I saw the radar a few hours ago...figured it must be virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Yeah by means has it been steady light snow, its been of and on for the last 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Very Light Snow flurries with a temp of Temp 29.5 here in East Nantmeal DP 15.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Moderate snow here in Orefield, PA 24 Degrees Dew point 17 Wind N @ 7mph Looks to last for at least another half an hour, if it doesn't fill in behind this wave..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 unbelievable it is literally drying up as it gets to philly.Its believable....not a single hi-res model (that I am aware of) gave extreme SE PA more than a flurry or snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Not a flake so far and 30.6F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Euro keeps us north folks surface at freezing until sunrise. WXSIM and cold air win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Euro keeps us north folks surface at freezing until sunrise. WXSIM and cold air win? I highly doubt that comes to fruition. My current temp is already up to 30. I may be mistaken, but isn't it supposed to warm gradually as the rain comes through, not wet bulb down due to the south wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Newman said: I highly doubt that comes to fruition. My current temp is already up to 30. I may be mistaken, but isn't it supposed to warm gradually as the rain comes through, not wet bulb down due to the south wind? I would think as cold as its been the last 4 days the surface probably will take longer to warm even if the temp rises to or slightly above freezing. Im sitting at 32 now with a dewpoint of 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 34.9F/ DP 22 I see nothing tonight/overnight but pure rain here...probably wash away 80+% of the snow w/temps rising to 40+ by dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 36F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Weekend will be a different story. Strongest HP in Eastern Canada US border in years and fresh arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Currently 37F, overcast, and temp has been slowly rising during the day and into this evening. Thankfully the dews are up in the low 20s because the single digit above or below 0F dewpoints the past couple days have been giving my humidifiers a workout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 30 here. Hoping for some sleet or ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Plow truck went by... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Plow truck went by... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: Plow truck went by... lol. Drivers milking the overtime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 13 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: WXSIM with 6z GFS/NAM continuing to show it's cold bias in these situations with a forecast of off and on flurries all day today and then steadier IP/ZR by 630pm this evening with all frozen through 730am tomorrow morning - with 0.46" or precip falling with temps below freezing. Agreed Ralph it will fail today!!....I even ran the forecast without the snow cover to see if that was influencing it's surface temps....but it is stubborn with the temps overnight Wxsim was close (NOT!!)..... as expected - temps have risen above freezing now 34.3 here in NW Chesco - only 10 hours faster than it had forecasted above from this AM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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