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January 13-17 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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New Euro really cut ice amounts for the northern half of IL, and a huge chunk of eastern Iowa.  Basically only far southern IA, and the western half of IA get 0.25"+ freezing rain.  Central IL still gets about 1/4", with a small area of 0.50" over towards Quincy.  Much of the northern half of IL gets <0.1" of ZR.

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Roads are going to be a disaster if we end up on the higher end of those totals. The 12/18 event we only got 0.07" FRZA and roads were a nightmare could only imagine tripling that amount or more. My stomach is in a knot just thinking about my drive to work Friday night. 

ILX posted an updated graphic with 0.25-0.50" possible. Looks like a weekend of being stuck at home. You literally can't do nothing on ice lol 

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Seems like the trend for Cincy area is that this will not be a big deal.  Temps may struggle to actually dip below freezing and amounts of precip are in question (Euro has almost nothing).  I would agree keeping the frz rain advisory though as any light showers could cause some slick spots but this is looking like a far cry from what it seemed 2-3 days ago. 

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Seems like the trend for Cincy area is that this will not be a big deal.  Temps may struggle to actually dip below freezing and amounts of precip are in question (Euro has almost nothing).  I would agree keeping the frz rain advisory though as any light showers could cause some slick spots but this is looking like a far cry from what it seemed 2-3 days ago. 



That's pretty much the norm isn't it? Social media hype no longer existent!
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1 hour ago, fyrfyter said:

 


That's pretty much the norm isn't it? Social media hype no longer existent!

 

Oh yeah...I'm sure the one HRRR run that blasts us at some point today will get re-tweeted LOL Obviously the situation bears watching for last minute changes, but I am not super worried at this point.  Don't know if you saw but ILN referenced the road METRO model which actually is predicting road surfaces to stay above freezing the whole time.

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Oh yeah...I'm sure the one HRRR run that blasts us at some point today will get re-tweeted LOL Obviously the situation bears watching for last minute changes, but I am not super worried at this point.  Don't know if you saw but ILN referenced the road METRO model which actually is predicting road surfaces to stay above freezing the whole time.



The METRO model is crap. Same mode they relied heavily on for previous snow events, and didn't issue advisories for and surprise surprise, it was wrong when the snow stuck to area roads and road conditions weren't good.

Until there is some record of that model and decent performance, I give it a 1% chance of being correct!
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10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro really cut ice amounts for the northern half of IL, and a huge chunk of eastern Iowa.  Basically only far southern IA, and the western half of IA get 0.25"+ freezing rain.  Central IL still gets about 1/4", with a small area of 0.50" over towards Quincy.  Much of the northern half of IL gets <0.1" of ZR.

One thing I'm noticing in the drier zone you referenced is that the models are having trouble saturating later Sun into early Mon, especially under 850 mb.  Main LLJ axis also remains farther west at that time, which could explain the bearish precip output.

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12 minutes ago, Chambana said:

18z GFS now wants to clobber central Illinois with 0.50-0-75 of ice lol.

The only thing worse than the snow maps is probably the ice maps lol.  Just dependent on so many factors, and this setup is particularly problematic given oscillating temps above/below freezing.

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35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The only thing worse than the snow maps is probably the ice maps lol.  Just dependent on so many factors, and this setup is particularly problematic given oscillating temps above/below freezing.

Oh I know the general public doesn't realize that's TOTAL, all of this will not be accreted at once, as we bounce from 30-34 degrees. Which will keep power outages at bay.

 

We were forecasted 32 degrees today, only reached 30 for a high. 

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6 hours ago, fyrfyter said:

 


The METRO model is crap. Same mode they relied heavily on for previous snow events, and didn't issue advisories for and surprise surprise, it was wrong when the snow stuck to area roads and road conditions weren't good.

Until there is some record of that model and decent performance, I give it a 1% chance of being correct!

 

Maybe so, but roads temps are mostly in the 40s as of an hour or two ago and I doubt temps in the mid 30s are changing that quickly.

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So far nothing--not even mist--in the immediate Springfield area thus far (there were some radar returns around 6 of some frozen precip between Chatham and Auburn).  Enough to prompt me to stay home from a meeting I normally attend in Chatham after work each Friday and stay home instead (near the State Capitol Complex in Springfield).  Not much showing up on the radar at this time--so maybe we're either in the calm before the storm or at least tonight's going to be a non-event locally.

Go 45 miles or so south of me (Litchfield) and that's another story--that's about the northern edge of the ice deluge in the St. Louis metro/I-70 corridor most of today.

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1 hour ago, Natester said:

0z 4k NAM and 3k NAM gives me almost NOTHING rofl.  Western Iowa and eastern Nebraska, not so much.

As mentioned earlier, models are suggesting saturation issues.  There's a pretty nice looking precip shield to the south on Sunday that gets eaten alive by low level dry air as it comes north (especially IL east).  Sometimes saturation occurs quicker than the models suggest and sometimes not, so we'll see.

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