WxMatt21 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, sparky333 said: Looks like NW Ohio is spared another winter storm this season. Bring on the rain... Ugh Considering what was modeled a week ago, I am MORE than happy with a rainy scenario, since rain or ice were pretty much the only two scenarios here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, WxMatt21 said: Considering what was modeled a week ago, I am MORE than happy with a rainy scenario, since rain or ice were pretty much the only two scenarios here. I agree but had to say it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 12z GFS still has me getting 0.30 of ice. And it's only Tuesday. A lot too sort out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoachLB said: 12z GFS still has me getting 0.30 of ice. And it's only Tuesday. A lot too sort out yet. On Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, sparky333 said: On Saturday? Yea on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Thats alot of ice when you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The GFS/UKMET whipped the Euro/GGEM asses on this one. Any chance you have the lottery numbers for this coming weekend too? PM me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 South-Central IA is too close to the southern edge of substantial snowfall for comfort in expectation, But in general things are quickly looking much better than in recent days, and the model trends look increasingly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Champaign county sheriff office just shared this from NWS service in Lincoln Facebook page. Smh. Social media is a huge problem with storms. And now these meteorologist who have been playing conservative will get ambushed for being "terrible at their job" when this stuff gets overhype's from false graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 00z NAM through 84 hours. Not as focused on these amounts as I am on placement at this point. This has the southern edge of the ice a good 50 miles south of where the 18z GFS was, so it will be interesting to see if the 00z GFS stays the same or nudges south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 If a more southerly solution such as this trend were to verify, I wonder how far north of this icing area a snow shield would set up, or there'd just be a sharp gradient into dryness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 0Z GEM would give areas of Southern Michigan a good initial thump of Freezing Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 An intial thump of freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 WSW for 1/4"+ ice hoisted by LSX this morning. AFD cited .1-.5" accumulation on Fri/Sat. It's questionable, but there's potential for more on Sat. night and Sun. morning -- especially if the Euro and 3km NAM surface temps work out as advertised (with the front pushing further south and a colder/drier surface). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 From IND: The good news is that the warmth we will experience prior to this time frame will make for warmer ground temperatures which may blunt the impacts slightly. ZzZzZzZzZz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Still too close to call around here. It looks like the boundary sets up somewhere close to the Ohio River. North it's Ice & Snow, South it's rain.Once again, another battleground event where 50 miles may make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Any idea when sampling will take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Any idea when sampling will take place. For the upper low, the 12z cycle tomorrow looks pretty good. Certainly by 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: For the upper low, the 12z cycle tomorrow looks pretty good. Certainly by 00z Friday. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Too early to say this with a lot of confidence but it's looking like there could be a "screw zone" of ice somewhere...the area that is too far north to get anything early on and then too far south as the upper low ejects. But a farther south track of the main system would plug the gap, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 The NAM/ECMWF/GGEM are colder than the GFS from this region back into the Plains through the 84 hour period, especially in regards to the all important 32 degree line. Will be interesting to see if that continues into Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Missouri expecting up to one half to three quarters inch of ice along U.S. 54 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 LOT with a January rainstorm. Alek picked a good year to bow out....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 18z GFS gives me .32 of ice by Monday evening while the CMC gives me a whopping .75 inch of ice by Monday evening. Of course, alot of that ice is going to run off as temps will be very marginal by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Reading through discussions, most of the offices out to the west seem to be siding toward the colder solutions. The temperature trends out there may offer some clues as to what happens farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 18Z GFS continues the trend of slowly upping the ice in southern MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I think the forecast ice totals are very overblown but in my opinion I'm thinking that I'll get three tenths of an inch of ice before temps go above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Well this is certainly a surprise, looks like they pulled the trigger on a Winter storm watch here, kinda odd given the trends in the models. Let the general public go completely bonkers now and stock up on food for days. Crazy to see the watch runs 12PM Friday-12PM Sunday. Never seen a WSW run for 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 They still don't know what to do here. GFS & NAM are bullish on the warm air. Euro keeps holding the cold all weekend.Regardless, it looks like we see freezing rain tomorrow night & into Saturday, then probably some more on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 hours ago, Chambana said: Well this is certainly a surprise, looks like they pulled the trigger on a Winter storm watch here, kinda odd given the trends in the models. Let the general public go completely bonkers now and stock up on food for days. Crazy to see the watch runs 12PM Friday-12PM Sunday. Never seen a WSW run for 48 hours. Was kind of surprised to see the eastern extent of that watch. Central IL, IN and OH are all in about the same boat with forecasted temps and qpf. Southwest into MO, different story and it looks like more precip so I can see the watch going up in that area. Unless models start upping precip amounts, I would bet freezing rain or wwa's will be the final headline call for most of central IL thru OH. When this threat first started to show up several days ago on the models, I thought at that time the big question would be where the boundary sets up. In actuality it looks like the big question is how much or how little precip is going to run the boundary. Remember all those models showing a fire hose right along the boundary with inches of qpf? Now it's tenths of an inch instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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