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So What Did We Learn Here?


Cold Rain

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I was reminded to the fact that weather weenies will always latch on to the snowiest/extreme model run, even days in advance, and just not let that run go. Lesson NOT learned? Always expect the worst then be surprised at what you do receive. Also, don't be butt hurt when areas NW receive more snow. Roxboro will almost always "win" when compared to southern Raleigh. 

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Looking back after a few days, I really don't think things were off that much for my area.  It just seemed the warm nose shifted the accumulations about 30 miles NW.  If I took a 10 minute drive NW up NC16 I would be in the 8-10 range and ended up with 2.5 or so.  That and the cold temps, it just was pretty nice.  

What I take away is even with the 850s progged south of me, don't get excited until you see HRRR and see where the transition line/warm nose is.  Needs to be 20 miles to your south or cut accumulations by 75%. Being around 85 sucks as that ALWAYS seems to be the transition line.  Feel worse for the Raleigh bunch though...this was a worse bust for them. 

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I personally enjoy the fact that even up to the minute of a winter weather event that there are still many unknowns despite all of the models and analysis. Meaning yes there are gonna be busts and yes there will be surprises. 

On another note a special thanks to the mods of the board...jburns, buckeye and lookout! Such an awesome time for most but these peeps worked there butt off during the storm...thank you!

And to the ones who give us valuable pbp of late night model runs that are paid for...grit especially I say thank you for what you do!

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2 hours ago, oconeexman said:

I personally enjoy the fact that even up to the minute of a winter weather event that there are still many unknowns despite all of the models and analysis. Meaning yes there are gonna be busts and yes there will be surprises. 

On another note a special thanks to the mods of the board...jburns, buckeye and lookout! Such an awesome time for most but these peeps worked there butt off during the storm...thank you!

And to the ones who give us valuable pbp of late night model runs that are paid for...grit especially I say thank you for what you do!

Amen to all of the above!

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4 hours ago, CentralNC said:

Something else learned.  RAH continually had low confidence in their briefings in the accumulation forecast..  For NC sometimes we have to get within 12 hours of the event to really see how it is going to unfold.

 

You're part way there.  Sometimes it is 12 hours after.

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6 hours ago, Isopycnic said:

I was reminded to the fact that weather weenies will always latch on to the snowiest/extreme model run, even days in advance, and just not let that run go. Lesson NOT learned? Always expect the worst then be surprised at what you do receive. Also, don't be butt hurt when areas NW receive more snow. Roxboro will almost always "win" when compared to southern Raleigh. 

Well put!  You nailed it man. Some just refuse to learn how climo works here

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My thoughts on what I learned with this one...

1. We have to not only interpret the models, but be able to predict where they are going.  In the medium range, we have to identify what a SE snowstorm looks like.  If you recall, WPC had that extended range discussion where they gave the storm 2 options...1) NS would phase in and the storm would produce a lot of precip, but pull north of our region...or 2) there would be no phase and it would be a suppressed, weak storm with light precip, and WPC was favoring option 2.  Many on here correctly stated that option 2 is what SE snowstorms look like in the medium range even though WPC was downplaying it.  In the short range, we have to identify that even though models are coming to a consensus, the consensus is still likely to shift, most of the time climbing north.

2. The best medium range look for a SE snowstorm is when the ensemble means have a cold storm that is tracking to our south.  If you go back to the discussion as early as Jan 1-2, the ensemble means where barking a southern snowstorm even though the individual members were throwing out a wide variety of options.

3. Long track 500mb waves will stay stronger, longer than models show as they trek across the country (this is an old tidbit from WxSouth-Robert).  The models slowly came around to it over time as we got closer to the storm date.

4. Forecasters need to do a better job of identifying/forecasting the location of the transition zone, and forecasted snow/sleet amounts need to be very conservative along this zone.  Model snow maps are probably making us lazy, and worse, at forecasting snowfall.  We are somewhat hypnotized by snow maps.

5. I used to think that when I heard meteorologists say “QPF is one of the least accurate fields in numerical weather prediction” that meteorologists where kind of saying that to justify their jobs/existence….but more and more, I’ve learned that you need to look at other aspects of storm systems to recognize what they mean for the final outcome.  For this one, the upper level jet structure supported the idea of more precip blossoming back to the west across W NC.  The 850mb frontogenesis supported the idea of enhanced bands of snow and dendrite production over parts of the NC Foothills and W Piedmont.

6. The saying, “You’re going to need to be able to smell the rain to get the heaviest snow” is a reasonable saying climo-wise for the central and northern mountains…but east of the mountains, it’s not a good saying as the heaviest snow is almost always a good bit NW of the transition line.

7. I will say that I have much more respect for the short term, hi resolution models in terms of their thermal forecasts.  Philippe Papin dropped some good knowledge on this topic in the discussion thread indicating that the global models (GFS/Euro) simply can’t handle the thermal setup to the degree and detail as the hi resolution models.

8. Regarding balloon launches, I envision a day in the future when we will be able to obtain a snapshot of the upper levels at the flip of a switch.

9. I learned that the state of NC never wants to see Jim Cantore show up again in winter.  His list of fails:  Dec 2000 (Charlotte – one of the biggest busts of all time, even worse bust in Raleigh), Mar 2010 (Charlotte – meager storm), Jan 2017 (Raleigh – one of the bigger busts of all time)

10. Facebook, Twitter, Blogs, whatever, there is no doubt in my mind that weather forums are the best places to follow/track/discuss winter storms.  Two of my wishes 40 years from now are: 1) That the climate in the SE still allows for winter storms, and 2) That weather boards are still around to discuss them.

11. Kudos to:

‘Cold Rain’ and others for banging the drum for temperature concerns along the GSP to CLT to RDU corridor

‘wow’ for visualizing how this storm could come together at 500mb and having the conviction to stick with it to fruition

‘snowgoose’ for offering his unique perspective on model biases with forecasting.  In particular, I thought his point about the upgraded Euro having a tendency to be south and suppressed in the medium range was on target with how things evolved.

The mods and admins for the work they do to keep the discussion clean and ongoing

 

Until next time...

 

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"4. Forecasters need to do a better job of identifying/forecasting the location of the transition zone, and forecasted snow/sleet amounts need to be very conservative along this zone.  Model snow maps are probably making us lazy, and worse, at forecasting snowfall.  We are somewhat hypnotized by snow maps."

 

To me though they already do a pretty good job trying to pound the idea of the transition zone into people's heads.  I know for example Greg Fishel really preaches how variable snowfall can be based on that transition.  I think one of the problems is that they still persist in showing maps with snowfall based on one particular prediction of where it will be, when in reality its is hard to pin down more than a few hours in advance.  So more than a day out or so, they should basically show a whole state as the potential transition zone.

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On 1/10/2017 at 3:05 PM, griteater said:

9. I learned that the state of NC never wants to see Jim Cantore show up again in winter.  His list of fails:  Dec 2000 (Charlotte – one of the biggest busts of all time, even worse bust in Raleigh), Mar 2010 (Charlotte – meager storm), Jan 2017 (Raleigh – one of the bigger busts of all time)

I vividly remember the disappointment of that storm.  What was the postmortem on that one?  I mean I don't know if we saw one single flake in Greensboro.

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When it comes to specifics regarding winter storms in central NC, it's just too hard to forecast correctly. The best the models can give us is a potential for a winter storm. Whatever we get and how much is just a guess because there just seems to be too many factors involved for the models and mets to get it right most of the time, and the tiniest change in any of those factors can make the difference in nothing and a huge storm here.

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Forecasting snow seems much more difficult than it really is.  We way over complicate it.  All you really need To do is make a list of all possible things that can work against the snowstorm, add two or three other things to the list that you would think would NEVER EVER be an issue, pick just one thing from the list, and then take the lowest snowfall map and cut it by at least 50-75%, and you'll be in the ballpark.

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57 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

When it comes to specifics regarding winter storms in central NC, it's just too hard to forecast correctly. The best the models can give us is a potential for a winter storm. Whatever we get and how much is just a guess because there just seems to be too many factors involved for the models and mets to get it right most of the time, and the tiniest change in any of those factors can make the difference in nothing and a huge storm here.

I think you're learning...

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52 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Forecasting snow seems much more difficult than it really is.  We way over complicate it.  All you really need To do is make a list of all possible things that can work against the snowstorm, add two or three other things to the list that you would think would NEVER EVER be an issue, pick just one thing from the list, and then take the lowest snowfall map and cut it by at least 50-75%, and you'll be in the ballpark.

Get a weatherrock and go with nowcasting! That's your best bet! No big build ups , to get deflated at the end!

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8 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I vividly remember the disappointment of that storm.  What was the postmortem on that one?  I mean I don't know if we saw one single flake in Greensboro.

It was a strong upper low that was crossing the southern Apps.  The energy transferred to the coast and skipped over central NC.  The ETA model (replaced by NAM) was bullish on snow in central NC while the AVN/MRF model (old GFS) was light with snow in central NC.  AVN won.  You can actually view old MRF/GFS model runs here - http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/opnl/opnl.arch.2000.html

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