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January 7th/8th Storm Discussion


TauntonBlizzard2013

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Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

So 3-5 at 1:10 ratios in ORH? Is this for real?

Those are the SREFs...take with many grains of salt.

 

It is certainly possible this ends up far enough west to give plowable snowfall into central regions of SNE if we get another tick at 00z like we did at 12z.

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There's two main things we'll want to look at...first, the southern stream energy ejecting out of the Rockies...If that trends stronger/sharper then it will help bring the storm west. The second factor is the PNA ridge. If that trend more amped, then the storm will have a little more room to come up the coast as it should cause the great lakes energy to dive a little more south rather than east.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's two main things we'll want to look at...first, the southern stream energy ejecting out of the Rockies...If that trends stronger/sharper then it will help bring the storm west. The second factor is the PNA ridge. If that trend more amped, then the storm will have a little more room to come up the coast as it should cause the great lakes energy to dive a little more south rather than east.

Here's hopin'!

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I fully expect a bit of a shift back east (not like last night's location, but split the difference) in the Euro.  A waffle here, a waffle there

Why? Here a waffle, there a waffle, everywhere a waffle, waffle? Or, because there is a good reason to think so based on the other models?

BTW... I'm bored so I'm being a bit facetious here. Why do you expect a shift east?

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8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I fully expect a bit of a shift back east (not like last night's location, but split the difference) in the Euro.  A waffle here, a waffle there

I don't know about that(normally I would agree on that) in this instance, due to the s/w's being better sampled now, this may be a legitimate shift NW due to that fact alone.  

 

Ofcourse I could be completely wrong too lol.??

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9 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Why? Here a waffle, there a waffle, everywhere a waffle, waffle? Or, because there is a good reason to think so based on the other models?

BTW... I'm bored so I'm being a bit facetious here. Why do you expect a shift east?

 

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don't know about that(normally I would agree on that) in this instance, due to the s/w's being better sampled now, this may be a legitimate shift NW due to that fact alone.  

 

Ofcourse I could be completely wrong too lol.??

I think it is a bit too amped, but maybe the sampling is making this for real.

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The two forces are nearly offsetting eachother this run. The southern stream vort was clearly better but the PNA ridge (and subsequent lakes shortwave position) was worse, so it helps out the southern folks and for us, it's kind of a neutral trend....maybe slightly better overall as the improvement to the southern stream was a greater magnitude than the degradation of the other features.

 

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The two forces are nearly offsetting eachother this run. The southern stream vort was clearly better but the PNA ridge (and subsequent lakes shortwave position) was worse, so it helps out the southern folks and for us, it's kind of a neutral trend....maybe slightly better overall as the improvement to the southern stream was a greater magnitude than the degradation of the other features.

 

 

That's what I saw, not that I need to tell you. This could be a pretty substantial storm if the ridge was better, or it could still completely whiff with some bad last minute ticks flatter.

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Just now, JC-CT said:

That's what I saw, not that I need to tell you. This could be a pretty substantial storm if the ridge was better, or it could still completely whiff with some bad last minute ticks flatter.

Yep...the last frame at 54h, makes al ittle more west movement...so we got an overall positive trend this run, but it actually could have been a lot better had the PNA ridge held serve from 12z.

 

 

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