RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: They are riding the GFS hard for this one.. they tend to ride the outliners, jan 2015 euro ftl. though I dont enjoy rippin offices, since its not as simple as us weenies think it is, but they have been dreadful for several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, snywx said: They are riding the GFS hard for this one.. lol, That's the model they should be weighing the least in this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Isn't that pretty much a regular occurrence in that office? At least that's what i hear from some in there zones anyways They went all out on a 2 ft+ outcome in NYC for the Jan 15 blizzard based on the Euro, which ended up east. Since then they've seemed conservative. It's understandable, but the city is quite likely at this point to be over the 1-3" forecasted this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: lol, That's the model they should be weighing the least in this set up 0z GFS matches their most likely map to a T! lol.. comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Isn't that pretty much a regular occurrence in that office? At least that's what i hear from some in there zones anyways it is a common theme here. i base nothing off their winter forecasts fortunately I have you all. but millions do, and thats the shame of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: They went all out on a 2 ft+ outcome in NYC for the Jan 15 blizzard based on the Euro, which ended up east. Since then they've seemed conservative. It's understandable, but the city is quite likely at this point to be over the 1-3" forecasted this afternoon. Agreed. Im starting to think 1-3" is possible here in the HV. They have me not even receiving a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: They went all out on a 2 ft+ outcome in NYC for the Jan 15 blizzard based on the Euro, which ended up east. Since then they've seemed conservative. It's understandable, but the city is quite likely at this point to be over the 1-3" forecasted this afternoon. It was silly of them to forecast 36" so far out and it burned them, but we've hashed it out at length on here, they didn't bust by that much. It ended up 50 miles east of their forecast. Their forecast is coming up tonight too. Although they seem to be leaning with the best f-gen forcing being out to sea, which I don't necessarily agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, snywx said: Agreed. Im starting to think 1-3" is possible here in the HV. They have me not even receiving a flake Tell me they at least have you mostly cloudy in your P&C............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Tell me they at least have you mostly cloudy in your P&C............lol They have a chance of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: Agreed. Im starting to think 1-3" is possible here in the HV. They have me not even receiving a flake Last January for that blizzard I also recall Upton being conservative, but that was again a last minute lurch north. This area is always difficult to forecast because of the mesoscale features and minor N/S ticks that can differentiate between a pedestrian event and something major, but hopefully later in the morning Upton expands the advisories/warnings based on what's happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Tell me they at least have you mostly cloudy in your P&C............lol Its painful sometimes man lol.. Im located at the extreme NW fringe of their CWA so we are often forgotten. Thankfully I border ALY & BGM which many here in the HV use anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: They have a chance of snow... Low prob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Low prob? 20-25%, but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: Its painful sometimes lol.. Im located at the extreme NW fringe of their CWA so we are often forgotten. Thankfully I border ALY & BGM which many of here in the HV use anyway. At least you can get some sense of whats happening then being near 3 WFO's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It was silly of them to forecast 36" so far out and it burned them, but we've hashed it out at length on here, they didn't bust by that much. It ended up 50 miles east of their forecast. Their forecast is coming up tonight too. Although they seem to be leaning with the best f-gen forcing being out to sea, which I don't necessarily agree with. I agree there. I live 25 miles SE of Central Park and it was a nasty 15" or so storm, and 25 miles east of here it was pushing 2 feet. It's just really tough to forecast for the NYC area in general with events like these that tend to fringe this area, and with the minor shifts aloft needed to massively affect sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: 20-25%, but it's there. Yeah, At least, Christ, I mean a day or two ago i could see, But there has been a pretty clear trend in the last 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: I agree there. I live 25 miles SE of Central Park and it was a nasty 15" or so storm, and 25 miles east of here it was pushing 2 feet. It's just really tough to forecast for the NYC area in general with events like these that tend to fringe this area, and with the minor shifts aloft needed to massively affect sensible weather. I'm a more conservative forecaster. I would prefer to trend up to an event, rather than throw a number out and have to walk it back later. That's not exactly the direction the biz is going though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I agree there. I live 25 miles SE of Central Park and it was a nasty 15" or so storm, and 25 miles east of here it was pushing 2 feet. It's just really tough to forecast for the NYC area in general with events like these that tend to fringe this area, and with the minor shifts aloft needed to massively affect sensible weather. Wasn't that the storm where some disputed central park setting an all time record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I'm a more conservative forecaster. I would prefer to trend up to an event, rather than throw a number out and have to walk it back later. That's not exactly the direction the biz is going though. Your right, Social media has created this hyperbole, I am of the same approach that you are, You always look better if your closer to being spot on with some receiving some higher amounts then to have to back track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 For fun: KGAY: 8" Nashua: 6" ORH: 10" KTOL: 7" KBOS: 12" Scooter: 17" PYM: 13" James: 9" HFD: 7" KPVD: 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: Tell me they at least have you mostly cloudy in your P&C............lol lol.. Almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 PYM SREF plumes look to be around 1.25. BOS closer to 0.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wasn't that the storm where some disputed central park setting an all time record? You mean the blizzard last January (Jonas)? I wasn't here for that (don't even get me started-I was living in Texas then and screaming every second I was missing it), but it was generally agreed that it was the all time best in NYC. JFK airport measured 30.5", and pretty much every measurement immediately in and around the city was 24" to locally over 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Last January for that blizzard I also recall Upton being conservative, but that was again a last minute lurch north. This area is always difficult to forecast because of the mesoscale features and minor N/S ticks that can differentiate between a pedestrian event and something major, but hopefully later in the morning Upton expands the advisories/warnings based on what's happening now. last jan, to be fair, they did ok. there were signs of a more northern extent of the best stuff but it came from nam/sref which everyone knows cannot be trusted. with this though, when they update in their next package, the flakes will be flying already. while its a no big deal system snowfall wise, you have companies like mine in Shelton CT who rely on them, our weather hotline is an okx rip and read. my dept has to be in at 10am so its cutting it real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: You mean the blizzard last January (Jonas)? I wasn't here for that (don't even get me started-I was living in Texas then and screaming every second I was missing it), but it was generally agreed that it was the all time best in NYC. JFK airport measured 30.5", and pretty much every measurement immediately in and around the city was 24" to locally over 30". Probably was that one, I knew it was one recently where it was a few days later that it was verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Uh oh, ALY, BOX, GYX, and CAR agree really well on snow amounts based on what I'm seeing internally. This can only go downhill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Very nice right up. You have almost all of Suffolk County LI in the 6-12! I love your map brother. Hoping we all get nailed! -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Uh oh, ALY, BOX, GYX, and CAR agree really well on snow amounts based on what I'm seeing internally. This can only go downhill from here. OKX floating on a raft somewhere near bermuda? I would be shocked though, seriously, if they dont expand their WSW products west and bump up all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 anyway, poor Jimbo in Harwich. expecting a top 5 snowfall in his life with 20"++. Get the gauze pads and neosporin on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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