January 7th/8th Storm Discussion

[weathafella]

I thought the mids look better.  Nice omega more expansive west and north suggesting to me that someone in southern NH may have a nice surprise.  As others have mentioned there is lingering ivt.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How did the GFS do leading up to the big hit a week ago tonight for NNE and Maine?? Did it drag its feet like it's doing now?? 

It was not to good, It was off in the BL with temps

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It was too amplified within 36 hrs or so.

So could it be just the opposite this go around...not amped enough?? 

[ORH_wxman]

Crazy Uncle at 36h (this is as far as plymouth state will go out these days on the early maps...and we don't get sfc maps anymore there)....

 

But this would be a huge hit if we could go another 12 hours...so expect a huge hit on the uqam maps in about 45 minutes:

 

 

 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It was not to good, It was off in the BL with temps

That's what I thought I remember seeing.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Crazy Uncle at 36h (this is as far as plymouth state will go out these days on the early maps...and we don't get sfc maps anymore there)....

 

But this would be a huge hit if we could go another 12 hours...so expect a huge hit on the uqam maps in about 45 minutes:

 

 

 

I'm pretty confident of a warning event in a lot of the region at least in sne.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Crazy Uncle at 36h (this is as far as plymouth state will go out these days on the early maps...and we don't get sfc maps anymore there)....

 

But this would be a huge hit if we could go another 12 hours...so expect a huge hit on the uqam maps in about 45 minutes:

 

 

 

I like the position of that lakes low being back west and that southern s/w looks healthy

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

thats quite neggy tilted on ukie. moreso than all other guidance it seems. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Crazy Uncle at 36h (this is as far as plymouth state will go out these days on the early maps...and we don't get sfc maps anymore there)....

 

But this would be a huge hit if we could go another 12 hours...so expect a huge hit on the uqam maps in about 45 minutes:

 

 

 

mmm, not to be a noog but I wouldn't be surprised if that solution actually screwed its self with that small lobe of positive vorticity advecting out just E of the Carolinas... Models that tend to over amplitude will always latch on to potential instability and run away with it...

In fact, I think what's actually going on is that in general the models "might" have been too far E with the surface wave all along, and as it gets closer, they are merely correcting closer to the q-v forcing, which is well west even of the NAM's 51 hour position... I could see it come closer to the coast -as is, the sfc wave is quite far E of the difluence/jet forcing at mid levels ...

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM well NW of 12z run. Prob gets about 0.4" to BOS for the queens...vs about 0.10" on the 12z run. But more importantly, the mid/upper levels are way better and may argue for more robust totals.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

thats quite neggy tilted on ukie. 

Yeah, big hit ORH to CC if that came to fruition.  

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm, not to be a noog but I wouldn't be surprised if that solution actually screwed its self with that small lobe of positive vorticity advecting out just E of the Carolinas... Models that tend to over amplitude will always latch on to potential instability and run away with it...

In fact, I think what's actually going on is that in general the models "might" have been too far E with the surface wave all along, and as it gets closer, they are merely correcting closer to the q-v forcing, which is well west even of the NAM's 51 hour position... I could see it come closer to the coast -as is, the sfc wave is quite far E of the difluence/jet forcing at mid levels ...

Yeah a lot of models seem to be doing that...though I think the Ukie's coarseness probably helps it here...so it might not "run away" from the vortmax quite as much. Hard to say for sure without seeing another panel...but the 850mb low is already closed pretty far west on that run:

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, big hit ORH to CC if that came to fruition.  

of course lol. thats the jack zone in coastals like 5 years running. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's actually a partial phase with the n-stream ... technically -

[weathafella]

I thought CMC looked pretty good actually.  We're 4 for 4 tonight.

[weathafella]

Wsw go up in the wee hours I bet.  Off to bed for me.  

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wsw go up in the wee hours I bet.  Off to bed for me.  

Thanks for the 8 taco

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Anyone know the SREF plumes for CHH?  I just want to get a taste of what they are spewing?

[ORH_wxman]

Here's the expected robust Ukie QPF output speculated on earlier:

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Wow UKMET is a hit, RGEM is a hit, NAM is a hit, I would consider the GFS a hit for me at least.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the expected robust Ukie QPF output speculated on earlier:

 

That's about 50 miles from being a monster snowstorm for a large portion of the region 

[JC-CT]

Here's the expected robust Ukie QPF output speculated on earlier:

 

That's both storms?

[Morch Madness]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the expected robust Ukie QPF output speculated on earlier:

 

 

 

That includes some from first wave - here is second wave only

[ORH_wxman]

First storm is pretty negligible anyway..maybe 2-5mm in most places.

[Baroclinic Zone]

That's a little bit of snow.

[weatherfreeeeak]

Euro updates?

[dmillz25]

7 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said:

Euro updates?

15 min we'll know

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks a bit more amped through 30 hours. Nothing huge though. 

[ORH_wxman]

Changes becoming a bit bigger by 36h. This will be NW of 12z. 

[JC-CT]

Not bad.