BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 60 and sunny with the windows down and sunroof open on 1-21. Gotta love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 60 and sunny with the windows down and sunroof open on 1-21. Gotta love it! If it's not gonna be snowy I'd rather have this over 40F and rain or 20F and dry as a bone. Today felt amazing. It was so nice to walk to the car and not be all bundled up, to open all the windows in the house, and how much easier on the body it is to take lol. It is funny as young as I am and as much as I love snow I do find myself liking the warmth a bit more each and every year. Every time it gets below like 15 degrees I find my body aching twice as bad as when it's warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: If it's not gonna be snowy I'd rather have this over 40F and rain or 20F and dry as a bone. Today felt amazing. It was so nice to walk to the car and not be all bundled up, to open all the windows in the house, and how much easier on the body it is to take lol. It is funny as young as I am and as much as I love snow I do find myself liking the warmth a bit more each and every year. Every time it gets below like 15 degrees I find my body aching twice as bad as when it's warm. Exactly, give me a bunch of snow or give me 60+ and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I don't like anything about this event/scenario and I think the bust potential is way way up there. The sounding from the beginning of the event to the end of the event. There's pretty much a layer of warm air within every 3hr time interval.n. Any elevation will help in this scenario. it may actually snow on Onondaga hill while falls in the city. The hill sits at about 1200ft asl, so that can be interesting if it comes to that. If there was a cold airmass ahead of this systems then I'd be loving where we are right about now but it was 59 here in the Cuse today and that's downright warm for the 21st of January! Don't wanna throw and diort on the fire but I think we end up with much more rain than the white stuff when its all said and done so we'll see. Then again this is from the Nam, and what I posted above was from the GFS, this mornings 06Z run, and I just looked at the 18z run soundings from the GFS and its looks good as far as sounding is concerned but any slight warming and it will rain. If its precipitating hard, it should be snow but if it light to moderate then look for a mix of everything! One other thing or caveat is the Snow Growth region which is between -12 to -17 and its not very large in this particular event because of no cold air, but there is plenty to tap but for some reason the HP doesn't want to move where I'd like it to be, for this system, lol! The GEFS looks good for this event and even more spectacular come next weekend, as there looks to be an UL system that just sits and spins for days with a WNW-NW flow with temps plenty cold enough for LE. There is also a sufficient amount of moisture so things may actually be looking up, but who knows what happens the week after, cause there are mixed signals. I guess we'll take one event at a time but it appears that were going into a time period where the weather actually resembles the season we are presently in, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 60 and sunny with the windows down and sunroof open on 1-21. Gotta love it! Absolutely hate it. As a matter of fact, I didn't even step outside today cause I would of gotten depressed, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 @138 its still churning in Eastern CA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The Nam Jackpots KROC and right over Syracuse there's a hole with nothing, lol. Downsloping off the Tug with a NE surface flow. Now that would be a kick in the teeth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Absolutely hate it. As a matter of fact, I didn't even step outside today cause I would of gotten depressed, lol! Im the opposite. I get depressed when I don't see the sun for awhile. It's why I go tanning in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 There are definitely ppl who get depressed without the right amount of Vitamin D, which the Sun provides, which I believe is called seasonal affect disorder SAD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3km 4KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: what are these bro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 cips analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Its looking like an advisory event for us here in CNY as per KBGM with amounts totaling 2-4 with the possibility of 6". So there will most likely be 0 warnings with this event unless things change dramatically temp wise, which I just don't see happening! I just cant believe how difficult it is to actually see a warning event here in CNY Headed for the Keweenaw peninsula in Northern MI looks like a great spot! I am an avid winter enthusiast! Snowboarding, snowmobiling, snowshoeing are my favorite past times in the WINTER, but we've been void of snow the past couple yrs. 13-14' yes, was amazing but out of the last 10 seasons, how many can we actually say were BN, with AN snowfall here in CNY? Maybe 3? Our avg is 123" and I think we're somewhere around 67" or something like that so were actually above the norm for this time during the season as norm to date is 63.3 so were real close to avg right now and with the upcoming event, if it comes to fruition and with what I see perhaps happening LES wise next weekend, we can actually move quite a bit ahead of the current norm to date amount. Temp wise, we don't even have to measure as we know its been AN for sure both in December and so far January, and I don't see it reversing, unless the cold hits and sticks, so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 00Z Nam loves WNY but being still 60 hrs out, Id be a bit cautious before going for 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Looks like gfs crushes rochester area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 to 15 inches at 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Here is the 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Watches should go up in am. Nam and euro all show 6 to 10 plus inches for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Its looking like an advisory event for us here in CNY as per KBGM with amounts totaling 2-4 with the possibility of 6". So there will most likely be 0 warnings with this event unless things change dramatically temp wise, which I just don't see happening! I just cant believe how difficult it is to actually see a warning event here in CNY Headed for the Keweenaw peninsula in Northern MI looks like a great spot! I am an avid winter enthusiast! Snowboarding, snowmobiling, snowshoeing are my favorite past times in the WINTER, but we've been void of snow the past couple yrs. 13-14' yes, was amazing but out of the last 10 seasons, how many can we actually say were BN, with AN snowfall here in CNY? Maybe 3? Our avg is 123" and I think we're somewhere around 67" or something like that so were actually above the norm for this time during the season as norm to date is 63.3 so were real close to avg right now and with the upcoming event, if it comes to fruition and with what I see perhaps happening LES wise next weekend, we can actually move quite a bit ahead of the current norm to date amount. Temp wise, we don't even have to measure as we know its been AN for sure both in December and so far January, and I don't see it reversing, unless the cold hits and sticks, so we'll see! I hear you. I don't think there's been a single post in this Upstate NY thread from anyone in Eastern NY this season. I'm at about 50% of where I should be, maybe less. Our last warning event was two years ago, which is crazy anyway you slice it. Anyway, this event is starting to have some possibilities, especially those with elevation. Even here, we may get some accumulating sleet. I haven't seen that since my years down in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Pattern looks nice for South Shore for Lake snow next week and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Well, still looks like a borderline Advisory event mon night for most of us. Advisories will be issued to address elevated areas and for general ass covering purposes. For most of us though, a soaking cold rain will develop Monday, that transitions into a slushy couple of inches for most in CNY/WNY Monday night. ENY is f@cked, its "winter cancel" there. Unless you live on a hilltop. Changeover will be slow except at elevation. A lot of rain mixed with sleet that could make driving sh*tty as the night wears on. Hilltops over ~1k ft get 3-5". There's no cold air within 1,000 miles and this weakling system won't be able to draw in or self-generate enough to make much of a difference from a snow accumulation perspective, and also overcome warm ground temps, before precip shuts off and moves north. So I am still thinking minor 1-3" accums (unless you're trying to drive the higher sections of I-81, I-88 or I-86 in WNY). After that, the usual low water content snows on the Tug and Chautauqua ridge with flurries for most other areas over the next week or so. A random few inches will accumulate from time to time. Another coastal storm will likely pop up in a week or two, most likely resulting in non-verifying Blizzard watches issued by KBOS, before the pattern changes back to Springlike again in mid/late Feb. So it is written, so shall it be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Others besides the tug will get hit in this setup.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Unmet really tucked In to the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Euro came in a few tics colder especially in the mid lvls so things are sooking good for an area wide advisory event of probably 3-6"! I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Could definitely be more but I'm staying quite conservative cause so many things can go wrong. There is a consensus on track so that's a plus so all's that's needed is to resolve the thermal profile which on the GFS, NAM and GGEM all look good for a period of perhaps heavy snow Monday evening into Tuesday mid-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Yea euro looks good, one can argue verbatim the euro is a little more then 3"-6" especially from hrs 48-60.. But one can't be greedy haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Actually its a lot more than 3-6" but there's a dry slot at 700mb lvl that encroaches on the area and if that happens all bets r off, we wont reach those amounts, but that of course is a preliminary amount but after today's runs they will probably rise but not a whole lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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