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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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Mt Ranier puts up some big numbers sometimes.  This one for Monday into Tuesday is particularly impressive.  124 inches forecast in about 30 hours.

Monday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 34 to 40 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 35 to 41 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 9. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.
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Looking as ugly as it can possible get for the next 7-10 days in terms of any cold/snow.  At the midpoint of January, BUF is sitting at a paltry 2.9 inches of snow for the month.  Long range models have no snow accumulation for BUF through 1/25. Lots of talk about a pattern change near the end of the month (how can't it change at that point?), so maybe we can rally and get into double digits.  The lowest January snowfall total I could find for BUF was 3.4" in the great winter of 1943/44.  Getting another 0.6" to pass that stellar month could sadly be a challenge...

BUF has some interesting notes about the overall pattern and long range, complete with a hint of heavy rain after next weekend...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is very high confidence that temperatures will average well
above normal across our forecast area during this period...and for
that matter...into the final days of the month. An unusually strong
190kt H25 Pacific East Asian jet will continue to help flood the
Lower 48 with Pacific modified air. This powerful jet will be a
product of a highly anomalous tropical ridge centered near the
Hawaiian Islands and a closed low that has been persistent over
Alaska. For what its worth...a collection of ensembles even suggests
that the strength of the Hawaiian ridge has a once in a generation
return interval for this time of year.

This overlying pattern will keep a split flow in place over North
America...where a dominate sub tropical jet will be part of
amplifying ridge over the eastern third of the country. While
this impressive ridge will support very mild and relatively benign
weather for our region through this time frame...there will come a
time when the proverbial pendulum is going to swing the other way.
That will come as we come out of the weekend when the much
discussed ridge will move to our east. A gaping...wide open Gulf
ahead of a dynamic negatively tilted trough will then set the stage
for what could be a very rainy event for our region later Monday
into Tuesday...but that is getting a little ahead of ourselves.
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14 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Looking as ugly as it can possible get for the next 7-10 days in terms of any cold/snow.  At the midpoint of January, BUF is sitting at a paltry 2.9 inches of snow for the month.  Long range models have no snow accumulation for BUF through 1/25. Lots of talk about a pattern change near the end of the month (how can't it change at that point?), so maybe we can rally and get into double digits.  The lowest January snowfall total I could find for BUF was 3.4" in the great winter of 1943/44.  Getting another 0.6" to pass that stellar month could sadly be a challenge...

BUF has some interesting notes about the overall pattern and long range, complete with a hint of heavy rain after next weekend...


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is very high confidence that temperatures will average well
above normal across our forecast area during this period...and for
that matter...into the final days of the month. An unusually strong
190kt H25 Pacific East Asian jet will continue to help flood the
Lower 48 with Pacific modified air. This powerful jet will be a
product of a highly anomalous tropical ridge centered near the
Hawaiian Islands and a closed low that has been persistent over
Alaska. For what its worth...a collection of ensembles even suggests
that the strength of the Hawaiian ridge has a once in a generation
return interval for this time of year.

This overlying pattern will keep a split flow in place over North
America...where a dominate sub tropical jet will be part of
amplifying ridge over the eastern third of the country. While
this impressive ridge will support very mild and relatively benign
weather for our region through this time frame...there will come a
time when the proverbial pendulum is going to swing the other way.
That will come as we come out of the weekend when the much
discussed ridge will move to our east. A gaping...wide open Gulf
ahead of a dynamic negatively tilted trough will then set the stage
for what could be a very rainy event for our region later Monday
into Tuesday...but that is getting a little ahead of ourselves.

While we will experience some anomalous warmth the next two weeks, things are certainly looking encouraging for the long range. Models have the -EPO return with also a +PNA ridge at the end of the month, there is also an ongoing SSW that's suppose to peak at the end of the month but we won't see its effects right away usually there is two weeks lag time..

 

 

temp10anim.gif

 

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Yes please. Mt. Rainer:

Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 13. Wind chill values between -8 and -16. Windy, with a south southwest wind 25 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 10. Wind chill values between -8 and -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 29 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to near 19 by 10am, then falling to around 8 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values between -4 and -14. Windy, with a south southwest wind 46 to 48 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 0. Wind chill values between -13 and -22. Breezy, with a southwest wind 24 to 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 8. Breezy, with a southwest wind 25 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around -1. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Friday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 7. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
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BUF is at 33.9 inches for the season, so about 16 inches below normal. Unless we get something in that narrow window at the end of the month, we'll be almost 28 inches below normal at the end of January. Hoping for a good February, or this will be the fourth season out of the last six when we ended up with less than 60 inches of snowfall, which would be by far the worst period since records have been kept.

I'm hoping the mild spell and open lake give us a better shot at some snow next month, but a relatively open lake didn't help much in past snowfall droughts. If the pattern isn't there, it isn't there.

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32 minutes ago, WNash said:

BUF is at 33.9 inches for the season, so about 16 inches below normal. Unless we get something in that narrow window at the end of the month, we'll be almost 28 inches below normal at the end of January. Hoping for a good February, or this will be the fourth season out of the last six when we ended up with less than 60 inches of snowfall, which would be by far the worst period since records have been kept.

I'm hoping the mild spell and open lake give us a better shot at some snow next month, but a relatively open lake didn't help much in past snowfall droughts. If the pattern isn't there, it isn't there.

Exactly!  Open lake in Feb/Mar is useless when we have days and days of south winds, temps over 40, etc....

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Exactly!  Open lake in Feb/Mar is useless when we have days and days of south winds, temps over 40, etc....

On the other hand, I expect that the lake temp at Buffalo may be able to bounce back up to 36F or higher - and in 2007, after a mediocre Dec-Jan, there was a monster February. 1995 seems to have had a decent February after a warm January. So crossing fingers we will (a) get a genuine sustained pattern change and (b) have some favorable SW headings for Buffalo metro.

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Take this all with a grain of salt because of how far its out there. But we most likely see a pattern change around the 27th/28th that last a few weeks into Feb. Finally get a +PNA which usually bodes well for Consistent eastern troughing.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://i64.tinypic.com/nqeahl.gif&key=fe3e446234695b041785ec4101b7cf700f82ee35b6dfa897e21d59059bc33c9d

IMG_5990.PNG

Take this all with a grain of salt because of how far its out there. But we most likely see a pattern change around the 27th/28th that last a few weeks into Feb. Finally get a -EPO and +PNA which usually bodes well for Consistent eastern troughing.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://i64.tinypic.com/nqeahl.gif&key=fe3e446234695b041785ec4101b7cf700f82ee35b6dfa897e21d59059bc33c9d

IMG_5990.PNG

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll take the 50s and sunny this weekend, going for a nice run or bike ride. 

I actually have a tee time for Saturday morning.  Terry Hills in Batavia is open, and I've heard a few others in the area might open this weekend too.  Nothing like January golf in western NY.   

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Day 5-6 (Monday Tuesday) on the 12z GFS is intriguing  Temperature profiles look very close to freezing with the potential for sloppy elevation snow or maybe even ice in the North Country.  That anomalously deep storm will be slowly crashing into that arctic high, finally something to watch.  

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kbuf

The change to unsettled conditions will begin Sunday night...as a
deep feed of Atlantic moisture will stream across our area ahead of
the deep closed low over the Deep South. The forecast track of the
lumbering stacked storm system is further east than previous
guidance packages...as the general track is now favoring a track up
the east side of the Appalachians rather than the continental side.
While this is not expected to change the pops much in the following
periods...it could significantly affect the type of pcpn. That being
said...the weekend will end with some rain overspreading the western
counties during the course of Sunday night. Pops for the overnight
will range from slight chc east of Lake Ontario...to likely across
the Western Southern Tier.

 

 

the various guidance
packages have introduced some uncertainty as to the precipitation
type. In a nut shell...there has been a trend by the ensemble
packages to track the stacked storm system up along the east side of
the Appalachians rather than the west side. This has led to a
`colder` solution...which for some ensemble members...translates
into at least the chance for some snow...if not accumulating snow.
Have tried to stay the course with continuity and the somewhat
rainier solution to avoid `flip flopping`...but have added the
mention of snow as a means of half stepping until there is increased
run to run model consistency. 

 

The rain will continue across the region Monday night into
Tuesday...as the storm system will track north-northeast across New
England. This is when things could get interesting. Because of the
more eastward track...colder air will be able to work in behind the
parent low. As mentioned...the air could be cold enough to allow for
a transition to wet snow...especially across the higher terrain. In
a worst case scenario...the snow would change over at a point where
significant accumulations could occur. While this has the lowest
chance for verifying at this point...there is a clear trend towards
the event being colder. Have thus added at least the mention for
some snow
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Hwo

 

 
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE
EAST COAST. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS LOW. POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA
TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW. KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING
IMPACTS TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
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4 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Hwo

 

 

SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE
EAST COAST. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS LOW. POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA
TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW. KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING
IMPACTS TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

Go dynamic cooling!! :)

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Sad trombone

 

Quote

The 12Z GFS run has shifted the deformation
zone on the western periphery of the coastal low sharply to the
east, and now keeps the bulk of the forecast area largely dry, with
the exception the eastern edges of the area. The 12Z ECMWF/GEM
models still attempt to bring a trowal across the heart of the
forecast area late Monday into Monday night, but shunt this feature
northwards into Canada by Tuesday morning. Model profiles do
continue to suggest a changeover to snow, so if the ECMWF/GEM
solutions verify, we could see a widespread accumulation of several
inches of snow from the Genesee valley east, however confidence in
this remains low at this time - particularly given that the
precipitation associated with these strong coastal lows tends to be
focused more to the east of our forecast area.

 

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1 hour ago, Revracer800 said:

When was the last time us that are in CNY had a significant snow fall other than LES? If it wasn't for LES we wouldn't get anything for snow around here the last few year's. 

This winter has been pathetic.  So glad i have a $12,000 snowmobile in the garage i can't ride. 

Sucks big time! Sleds will be new next year as well. Two years in a row of zero to very little riding south/southeast of Lake Ontario. Rode three times around here last year and zero so far this year. May be able to salvage three or four weeks in Feb. if weather cooperates but not counting on it. Winter grade gets a F/D- so far.

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I have not been on a local trail since 14/15 season and that was only a handful of times. Last year i rode the Tug twice and that was it. I have not been able to ride this year at all. 

We had rideable snow around here last month but during hunting season so trails were closed. 

Very very frustrating. 

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Not for nothing but I wouldn't listen to a word KBUF says as far as synoptic systems are concerned. I would look more at KBGM's discussions but thats just me.  They see one run that shifts a bit to the East and thats it, were toast. Its not like it can come back right? This is why I dont even read their discussions when it comes to actual storm systems! 

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kbuf

 

The focus remains on early next week as a large low pressure system
is set to churn up the east coast and bring unsettled weather to the
forecast area. There remains plenty of uncertainty with this system
with regard to the track and even precipitation type, however there
remains the potential for a portion of the forecast area to see
significant snow accumulations. With the 00Z model runs this
morning, the GFS has maintained fairly close where it ended up
yesterday after trending eastward. The ECMWF, which also trended
eastward yesterday, has actually trended back to the west with the
00Z run this morning. Despite the GFS maintaining the more eastern
track, more of its ensemble members are showing the potential for
significant snowfall into the eastern half of the forecast area.
This trend in the GEFS matches well with the 00Z EC trend back to
the west, as well as with the top matches from the CIPS analogs.
Speaking of the analogs, there weren`t a lot of great matches for
this storm, but a couple of the best matches brought significant
snows through central NY and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Long story short: we are not out of the woods on the potential for
significant snowfall across a portion of our forecast area, although
as of now it appears the best chance is probably from near the
Finger Lakes eastward into central NY. With respect to precipitation
type, despite the overall marginal airmass associated with this
storm system, it appears dynamically cooling and precipitation rates
in the deformation band (wherever it sets up) would be plenty to
support accumulating snow. West of that deformation band, any
snowfall amounts would drop off quite sharply

 

 

A large pattern change appears to be on track in the wake of this
storm system. A large trough beginning to carve out across the CONUS
by midweek, with a leading wave pushing through the Great Lakes
across southern Ontario province by Wednesday into Thursday. This
will bring some rain and snow showers across the region, with some
lake and upslope enhancement. The real interesting time period comes
toward the end of the week as colder air floods into the region as
the large trough spins east of the Hudson Bay, which will start to
ramp up lake effect snows off of the lower Great Lakes. Global
models are in good agreement that a secondary colder shot of arctic
sourced air then surges into the region by the end of month with
continued (possibly significant) lake effect snows.

 

KBUF

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