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1.6.17 Snow Event


Ralph Wiggum

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10 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Will he weight the GFS as highly when it comes out lower?? weenies will likely not be liking the GFS

For tonight, yes, GFS anemic. For saturday, GFS took a major jump towards the NAM at 500mb. Still catching up....ALL the models are playing catchup. This will not be finalized until the storm is happening, mark my words. 

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1 minute ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Sounds good Steve...I will mark your words....however I think while Philly has a chance for some snow...areas not too far west of 95 are not likely to see more then flurries IMHO

You may be right, but 18-24 hours ago we were also saying NJ would be lucky to see flurries and now some forecasts are over 12". So, yeah.

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30 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Sounds good Steve...I will mark your words....however I think while Philly has a chance for some snow...areas not too far west of 95 are not likely to see more then flurries IMHO

We have no shot with wave #2 this far from I95. Ukie and Canadian still look the same it's the NAM being the NAM. 

 

 

 

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12z NAM/GFS through Wxsim for NW Chesco bumps up snow just a little bit with 2" to 3" depending on ratios (I am using simple 10:1 for the below)

Flurries by 8pm and light snow by 930pm temp 27.1

1am Mod Snow temp 24.6 with 1.0" on the ground

4am Mod Snow temp 23.6 with 1.7" of snow

7am flurries ending temp 22.7 with 2.0" of snow

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7 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

12z NAM/GFS through Wxsim for NW Chesco bumps up snow just a little bit with 2" to 3" depending on ratios (I am using simple 10:1 for the below)

Flurries by 8pm and light snow by 930pm temp 27.1

1am Mod Snow temp 24.6 with 1.0" on the ground

4am Mod Snow temp 23.6 with 1.7" of snow

7am flurries ending temp 22.7 with 2.0" of snow

 

liking my shot in chester county at the family farm, house in berks is a different story. I think there is a ways to go with this one, could go either way yet imho.

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I've seen all the data I am using for tonight and sticking with my original 1-3" call generally in SE PA (hedging lower end of that range still). I'll take it and enjoy every single flake that falls. Would have been nice to extend this to the AM rush to possibly cancel school to go sledding with the kids but oh well. I could always be the cool dad and keep them home if there's an inch or two for sledding purposes B)

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14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I've seen all the data I am using for tonight and sticking with my original 1-3" call generally in SE PA (hedging lower end of that range still). I'll take it and enjoy every single flake that falls. Would have been nice to extend this to the AM rush to possibly cancel school to go sledding with the kids but oh well. I could always be the cool dad and keep them home if there's an inch or two for sledding purposes B)

Does it bother you that every single winter event we have this year has occurred in the early am? Quantity of snow has been bad enough does the little that falls have to happen when most are sleeping old man winter is up to torture.

 

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5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Does it bother you that every single winter event we have this year has occurred in the early am? Quantity of snow has been bad enough does the little that falls have to happen when most are sleeping old man winter is up to torture.

 

Yes, most of the snow I've seen falling this winter so far has been with a flashlight, lol. But it still looks good.

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