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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah they'll both look pretty similar to their OPs in that regard...I guess I'm always waiting for the one time an ensemble run is vastly different from an OP run lol.

You see it in the extend range, which is congruent with the time frame that they are best suited for.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You see it in the extend range, which is congruent with the time frame that they are best suited for.

True... once inside of NAM/mesoscale range its probably not going to vary too much as the control run is essentially the OP and there's not enough forward time to develop large differences.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I do like seeing colder air advected in at 925 like the euro has. 

Exactly what I meant by the favorable +pp placement providing margin for error as it relates to the EURO bias to rush development.

This is the deciding factor in my mind, and why I like this threat.

However those south of the pike do not have that luxury of margin for error.

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I know ...it'll roll eyes .. but, someone earlier mentioned IVT ... that's a norlun look there in the 12 to 18 hours post the primary burst of waa/weak cyclogen.

may want to watch that... Could almost see this turning out a bit more wintry as a two day appeal than was originally planned... 

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A nice drop in the NAO into go time. Looks negative by the 18th. I'd hedge deeper/colder on this guy. I also think there's a risk we see it blocked/dramatically slowed closer to the coast as it tracks ENE which is something to watch for on future runs... In sum, I think the opportunity is there for this to evolve into a more classic looking Miller B.

 

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31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ecmwf_tsnow_boston_15.png

See, look no further than the H85 level to see distinguish between that "haves", and "have nots" here. The cold is pressing down from the NE, so this actually has a bit of 12/16/07 appeal in the sense that coastal areas may very well do better than area south of the pike...even out past the Berks.

Reconcile this H85 snapshot of the crux of the storm with the accumulation chart above; everything below the clouded area is too warm in the mid levels for snowfall:

 

ecmwf_t850_boston_12.png

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know ...it'll roll eyes .. but, someone earlier mentioned IVT ... that's a norlun look there in the 12 to 18 hours post the primary burst of waa/weak cyclogen.

may want to watch that... Could almost see this turning out a bit more wintry as a two day appeal than was originally planned... 

As you and others pointed out often models mistake Norlun looks for actual organized pressure centers

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This was what I wanted you to look deeply at the GFS last night, knowing it's bias.

Nothing has verified yet, but kudos to you and John for sticking with this. I tend to get lazy when the pattern wanes, and just looked at the accumulation output on the GFS, but was at attention for the 00z EURO.

It didn't disappoint.

Again, EURO may too amped too early, but I think my area looks good.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing has verified yet, but kudos to you and John for sticking with this. I tend to get lazy when the pattern wanes, and just looked at the accumulation output on the GFS, but was at attention for the 00z EURO.

It didn't disappoint.

Again, EURO may too amped too early, but I think my area looks good.

Yeah... we're still sampling critical dynamics as mid level impulse shrapnel continues to relay out of the GOA up there... at some point, some important piece can jig this one way or the other, but I like the way consensus "seems" to be catching up to the concepts put forth.   But you're right - nothing's verified; we like the trends.

For general audience:  As jbenedet instructionally noted the NAO was/is descending leading into this.  In fact, the whole mid and extended range has a couple few intervals where we see a fairly deep layer easterly component get hosing into Maine ...that's pretty much -NAO incarnate, but I think there's room to discuss the entire distance being colder ... I'm not sure I'm buying the warm 1950 November turbo wrapped cyclone vibe of the Euro out there either.  

That's going to be really interesting to see how the models figure that period of time out.  The straight teleconnectors argue for SOMEthing significant of eastern mid latitude N/A from Jan 20 to 26th ... but egh - those depictions.

Thanks for noticing some of us were keeping an open mind :) but... it would mean even more if folks would recognize that it didn't look like it had to wait until February to get things more interesting...  I've been struggling to convey that ..seems the idea wasn't too accepted. 

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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, look no further than the H85 level to see distinguish between that "haves", and "have nots" here. The cold is pressing down from the NE, so this actually has a bit of 12/16/07 appeal in the sense that coastal areas may very well do better than area south of the pike...even out past the Berks.

Reconcile this H85 snapshot of the crux of the storm with the accumulation chart above; everything below the clouded area is too warm in the mid levels for snowfall:

 

ecmwf_t850_boston_12.png

I love the way 850 mb is + 0.3 C over Kevin -

f perfect man hahaha

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44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, look no further than the H85 level to see distinguish between that "haves", and "have nots" here. The cold is pressing down from the NE, so this actually has a bit of 12/16/07 appeal in the sense that coastal areas may very well do better than area south of the pike...even out past the Berks.

Reconcile this H85 snapshot of the crux of the storm with the accumulation chart above; everything below the clouded area is too warm in the mid levels for snowfall:

 

ecmwf_t850_boston_12.png

Occasionally there are snowfalls across southern/central New England in the midst of a 500 mb ridge position. Some of those systems have brought 4” or more snow to Boston while bringing no snowfall at all to such cities a New York and Philadelphia. One example was a January 2, 1966 system that brought 4.3” snow to Boston. The ECMWF’s 500 mb forecast has some similarities to that upper air pattern, though there are subtle differences, too. The respective 500 mb height anomalies are below:

01021966.jpg

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