Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think EURO doesn't link up the disturbances like the GFS does and that is why the EURO is a little off on the storm potential for mid week. mmm.. not sure I agree; i think has Scott noted the high pressure has been getting a little bit more prominent of a player in the critical thicknesses. There's even PP "nosing" down and it's January- i mean... what part of nosing PP doesn't win in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it takes time. For me, it was just nice to see some disturbance of the vortex instead of a black hole from top to bottom. It's better for it to be disturbed. That's ok too. Absolutely! ...to the point of frustrated comedy, anything different is good - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Amazing how strong that high is... like 36 hours ago this was for like Sunday River and Sugarloaf. That high is so stout that it pretty much prevents more than an inch or two getting up that way on this EURO run. Just runs into a brick wall of dry air. Yeah I didn't think it would get that cold into SNE. Thought maybe some mix or whatever into nrn ORH hills, but that's snow down to BOS...or at least close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I didn't think it would get that cold into SNE. Thought maybe some mix or whatever into nrn ORH hills, but that's snow down to BOS...or at least close by. Yeah I was just looking up here and its a cold dry snow. Like low to mid 20s with 0.4" QPF....I'd take. That gradient though from like 21F at Dendrite to 32F and paste at ORH is pretty impressive. Also probably helping the QPF in that frontal zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Euro....Few days ago warm and a system going west. Couple of days ago a weak secondary with almost enough cold air for a paste up here in CNE. Yesterday looked like a good wet snow. Today wagons south. SNE gets the paste down to almost south of the Mass/RI/CN line and I'm on the northern edge. All of Mass gets snow NW of Taunton to Plymouth. Tomrrow high and dry up here with another SNE snowstorm. Like the trend for you guys down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Couple more ticks and well be snowing here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Euro gets 3-5 inches here now. Cold trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro gets 3-5 inches here now. Cold trend continues No it doesn't. You are warm at 850. Need tick south. Could be ZR or IP there verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Euro....Few days ago warm and a system going west. Couple of days ago a weak secondary with almost enough cold air for a paste up here in CNE. Yesterday looked like a good wet snow. Today wagons south. SNE gets the paste down to almost south of the Mass/RI/CN line and I'm on the northern edge. All of Mass gets snow NW of Taunton to Plymouth. Tomrrow high and dry up here with another SNE snowstorm. Like the trend for you guys down there. ?? It's a nice snow event for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: No it doesn't. You are warm at 850. Need tick south. Could be ZR or IP there verbatim. Maybe the map I saw was counting sleet as snow..but the 3 inch line was here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: No it doesn't. You are warm at 850. Need tick south. Could be ZR or IP there verbatim. Any chance this ticks cold enough for snow here? Seemed like a long shot a few days ago... but that high is pretty stout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No it doesn't. You are warm at 850. Need tick south. Could be ZR or IP there verbatim. He can have his ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That little weenie appendage of higher amounts from the ORH hills into my area is common in late season events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Any chance this ticks cold enough for snow here? Seemed like a long shot a few days ago... but that high is pretty stout Perhaps, but remember....srfc features like high pressure are driven by the mid and upper level features. Basically you would need the low to be forced a bit more south and better confluence to the north. I'm not sure it can happen...but then again I did not expect a Blue Hills blue bomb like the euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe the map I saw was counting sleet as snow..but the 3 inch line was here. I love you saw the 3" overhead and interpreted that as 3-5" . Anyway this is the p-type totals. Doesn't look like it prints any snow there yet but IP/ZR plenty. The trend has definitely been colder so might just have to wait till 00z to get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That little weenie appendage if higher amounts from the ORH hills into my area is common in late season events. That is the elusive paste you always want. The evolution at 500 is real convoluted. The initial s/w moves in and weakens, and then one sort of dumbbells down to the south of it and helps keep precip going. Definitely some flags with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I love you saw the 3" overhead and interpreted that as 3-5" . Anyway this is the p-type totals. Doesn't look like it prints any snow there yet but IP/ZR plenty. The trend has definitely been colder so might just have to wait till 00z to get some snow. I'm also fine with heavy icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Perhaps, but remember....srfc features like high pressure are driven by the mid and upper level features. Basically you would need the low to be forced a bit more south and better confluence to the north. I'm not sure it can happen...but then again I did not expect a Blue Hills blue bomb like the euro has. I think spots near the MA border could sneak 3-4", but its crazy how the heaver snows parallel the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is the elusive paste you always want. The evolution at 500 is real convoluted. The initial s/w moves in and weakens, and then one sort of dumbbells down to the south of it and helps keep precip going. Definitely some flags with this. I mean...this may be an over trend, as I don't expect 9" of paste...but a few inches a good bet. I am guarded, though bc the EURO is probably rushing development, as it usually does. That is the reason I never bought that rain to snow event a couple of weeks ago that many pros did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm also fine with heavy icing Yeah you sat at 32F pretty much the entire thing and its near an inch of QPF... so you'd have some fun with that either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah you sat at 32F pretty much the entire thing and its near an inch of QPF... so you'd have some fun with that either way. Honestly if that exact scenario happened and Ray and Will got 10+..I would be 100% ok with that..almost would want that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean...this may be an over trend, as I don't expect 9" of paste...but a few inches a good bet. I am guarded, though bc the EURO is probably rushing development, as it usually does. That is the reason I never bought that rain to snow event a couple of weeks ago that many pros did. Curious how the ensembles look. Also, if that ULL to our northeast does not tickle Maine like the euro has, it's a cold rain. But, these are the storms I would expect the euro to have a better handle on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Honestly if that exact scenario happened and Ray and Will got 10+..I would be 100% ok with that..almost would want that It's definitely not an ice look synoptically...almost looks rain or snow. It is mild at 850 somewhat....but I don't see a pronounced warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 The event is now 66 hours out.....I am confident that the euro has the right idea, which is why I waited until the gf nodded off last night and scrambled to blog. I was blowing it off until I saw the 00z euro, and then hit the keyboard to warn of a potential moderate event, with possible power implications. The main question in my mind is how quickly is it rushing development bc we can't afford much loss of dynamics in marginal airmass. However, the more impressive +pp may be allotted us more wiggle room in that regard. I'm leaning snowy north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Curious how the ensembles look. Also, if that ULL to our northeast does not tickle Maine like the euro has, it's a cold rain. But, these are the storms I would expect the euro to have a better handle on. Yes....a buy the pseudo 50/50 locking the +pp in place. We may finally thread a needle, aside from the one that sne winter enthusiasts have been planning to gouge their eyes out with, heretofore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 I do like seeing colder air advected in at 925 like the euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 GEFS are definitely further north with the whole thing than the EURO. But the ensembles seem to follow their OPs so my guess is the EPS will be further south (compared to the American guidance) like the Euro OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: GEFS are definitely further north with the whole thing than the EURO. But the ensembles seem to follow their OPs so my guess is the EPS will be further south (compared to the American guidance) like the Euro OP. Yes. I don't read much into them at this relatively short lead- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. I don't read much into them at this relatively short lead- Yeah they'll both look pretty similar to their OPs in that regard...I guess I'm always waiting for the one time an ensemble run is vastly different from an OP run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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