Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That Euro look today is s 32.01-33 r extravaganza here with those 850's.. while cold at surface and a sleet fest from CT border to n to ORH 2 narrow areas of icing just n of me, and for some reason ... pocketed east and west of me too. agreed - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 It's IP/SN mix probably at Kevin's. 850 is near 0 with no warm tongue and cold 925 temps. You aren't getting ZR much if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's IP/SN mix probably at Kevin's. 850 is near 0 with no warm tongue and cold 925 temps. You aren't getting ZR much if that happens. Yeah it's not screaming ZR but it is probably SN/ZR/PL mix. Looks like the core of the warm nose on the Euro is right around 800 hpa or so on the weatherbell cross sections. You really want that warm tongue more than 3C for a big ZR signal and that's definitely not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 What a change of events..we went from 7+ days of torch to a potential big winter storm and no torch..all in part to a -NAO that nothing saw 5 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What a change of events..we went from 7+ days of torch to a potential big winter storm and no torch..all in part to a -NAO that nothing saw 5 days ago No torch? I'd draw the shades after your wintry mix Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 1:47 PM, Spanks45 said: The Euro has a big high pressing in from the Northeast on Wednesday, much stronger than last nights run. This is the time that is also has the NAO going negative and the PNA going positive... The Euro was seeing this as far back as Tuesday, I had mentioned this on Tuesday, not too bad for an 8 day forecast time...I wonder if it could trend even further south with the frozen precip if the heavier, steadier precip could make it down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, Spanks45 said: The Euro was seeing this as far back as Tuesday, I had mentioned this on Tuesday, not too bad for an 8 day forecast time...I wonder if it could trend even further south with the frozen precip if the heavier, steadier precip could make it down this way. Yeah this isn't exactly a shock. Even on Thursday I had a mix in the forecast with highs in the 30s for Tuesday. The lowly GFS even had a nice signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a change of events..we went from 7+ days of torch to a potential big winter storm and no torch..all in part to a -NAO that nothing saw 5 days ago Ah ha ha - nice try ... And, there's little chance of a "big winter storm" here... Kevin's being a dink in response to my teasing and humiliating him ...which I don't understand - he really should just accept his station in society. but, we're still just talking about something to alleviate an otherwise boring pattern. seriously, let's not get carried away. for one, the Euro snow/"clown" map is probably over done. secondly, since this is still an evolving trend, ...heh, it really requires just new run support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: No torch? I'd draw the shades after your wintry mix Tuesday. GEFS?? And that's a torch even if it verified? What happened to all the 50's and higher we were seeing forecast in places? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Here comes the weenie SNE NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just wondering...is this the same piece of energy that Nick (OSMU) was talking about a few days ago that was modeled to go through the Maritimes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah ha ha - nice try ... And, there's little chance of a "big winter storm" here... Kevin's being a dink in response to my teasing and humiliating him ...which I don't understand - he really should just accept his station in society. but, we're still just talking about something to alleviate an otherwise boring pattern. seriously, let's not get carried away. for one, the Euro snow/"clown" map is probably over done. secondly, since this is still an evolving trend, ...heh, it really requires just new run support. lol this line is too great 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: GEFS?? And that's a torch even if it verified? What happened to all the 50's and higher we were seeing forecast in places? And 48/32 is pretty hideous for the time of year... I'd bet there are some 50s thrown in there too since it's a mean of all ensemble members so the extremes are likely to be muted (including a colder solution on Tuesday). The Euro Ensembles - which I cannot post - look just as hideous through D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Here comes the weenie SNE NAM run. Check that...weenie dendrite run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Check that...weenie dendrite run. Yeah. Wagons north on that. Not much snow S of the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah. Wagons north on that. Not much snow S of the border There's plenty for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah. Wagons north on that. Not much snow S of the border What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: There's plenty for you. Yeah... he's being MPM-ish. It looks fine for him too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What? I was looking at 32km at first. Looked like a brief window of snow on that. The 12km looked much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... he's being MPM-ish. It looks fine for him too He's got a half inch of liquid before the H85 0C knocks on his door. Plus it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 New thread started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I was looking at 32km at first. Looked like a brief window of snow on that. The 12km looked much better Who would ever use the 32km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who would ever use the 32km? It comes out faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: lol this line is too great And 48/32 is pretty hideous for the time of year... I'd bet there are some 50s thrown in there too since it's a mean of all ensemble members so the extremes are likely to be muted (including a colder solution on Tuesday). The Euro Ensembles - which I cannot post - look just as hideous through D10. Xmax temps for the 84 to 168 hr period on the EPS show a 15 plus degree drop from the 60 hrs ago run. Those mega torch runs have cooled each day. Does not mean it will be BN but it certainly is a huge drop and has big implications for CNE NNE winter sports enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 5 hours ago, dendrite said: Check that...weenie dendrite run. lol, Yup, I had not looked at any model data the last 3 days, Looks like this one sneaked up on us as it looked to track to the west the last time i checked, Nice HP pressing down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Two things I'm noticing this morning: 1. My zone forecast shows high temperatures predicted Thurs-Sat are now lower than they were. 2. The SPC 3-7 map has a decent high north of NE sitting there the whole time. There is no cutter and next Monday there is a 996 storm approaching the TV, although the high looks to be further north, though strong, over Quebec near Hudson. Doesn't look like a torch, although I don't know if that high will keep the TV storm on a good path for us. Looks like it could be just a bit of a warm up here for a few days but then Canadian cold starts to press down and meet southern low pressure. This could be happening by Mon-Tues, not Feb 1. Am I missing something? Actually what it missing is cold air. I wonder if that can trend better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Euro said what mega torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 Things are looking interesting around the 25th. Has Miller time written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 the flame throwing have subsided. Everything has trickled cooler, may not be enough for us down here for winter threats for now but at least the packed coolers with visions of beach volleyball are postponed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 That's a cold srfc on the euro after day 7 there. Looked like a mix fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a cold srfc on the euro after day 7 there. Looked like a mix fest. Has Hunchies Ice storm with .6 frzr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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