USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow the NWS mentions static instability caused by the Gulf Stream and arctic airmass over very warm waters south of the benchmark could lead to explosive cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Wow the NWS mentions static instability caused by the Gulf Stream and arctic airmass over very warm waters south of the benchmark could lead to explosive cyclogenesis. Well it will. The question is how far out to sea does that happen. I think you'll get snow from both, but wave one might be the better of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 If the NAM and GFS are any signs at all this morning, then I would hold out hope for something significant since I live on Cape Cod for the 00z runs tonight or even 12z runs Friday morning given that a little tweak could get heavy snow into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: If the NAM and GFS are any signs at all this morning, then I would hold out hope for something significant since I live on Cape Cod for the 00z runs tonight or even 12z runs Friday morning given that a little tweak could get heavy snow into the region. Only you can get away with this. For the vast majority of the forum hope is fading fast, but the EPS does give you at least a 1 in 5 chance at warning snows from the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Keep in mind though, there are still more misses than hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Only you can get away with this. For the vast majority of the forum hope is fading fast, but the EPS does give you at least a 1 in 5 chance at warning snows from the second wave. Those are decent odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Keep in mind though, there are still more misses than hits. I understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 It's really a shame that we couldn't get these systems to develop more. Was a good period and to miss is discouraging. Some of us it's a cat whisker away from a much bigger deal. Hoping for a sidestep west during the day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Very nice 6z runs for James. We're rooting for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I dunno....the H5 pattern is eh, but I am intrigued by the model tendency for conference and surface HP after next week. Unfortunately later next week will torch it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Or maybe war and more hazardous occupations are the reason maybe but then the tongue and cheek humor of women driving men to distraction wouldn't be as funny - duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not me....I'm done with the 1-2" front enders. If you don't get to it fast enough, it ends up a skating rink, and it isn't worth it. The first few times were fine, but I've had enough of that. I'd rather an all rain event. Yup. I was being sarcastic. Front enders suck almost as much as full on rain in the winter. Completely useless to me. Stat padding for snowfall totals isn't worth the front end to rain b.s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Don't know what the Euro spit out but the GFS and GGEM looked intriguing for Sunday in SE MA/ CC/ Islands. Will have to monitor the 12z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Don't know what the Euro spit out but the GFS and GGEM looked intriguing for Sunday in SE MA/ CC/ Islands. Will have to monitor the 12z runs today. Mainly for the fish and deserted summer resorts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Mainly for the fish and deserted summer resorts? Nice shift northwest on both models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z NAM showing a stronger shortwave within the southern stream as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico. It is however weaker with the precip shield over SNE for the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Northern stream is currently digging southward on the satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Southern Stream disturbance looks a ton bit better on the NAM, it even shows a negative tilting southern stream trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looking so much better potentially on the NAM right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Gonna be one of those NGW runs I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gonna be one of those NGW runs I think. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Bob monster coming up on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well that's a fairly substantial shift on the NAM. Brings snow to pretty much all of SNE for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Scott that low is much stronger now, could it be a trend continuing lets see what the rest of the model suite says, major change in the southern stream, for the first time in its existence the model sees a negatively tilted southern stream disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Nam kisses CHH with 1.00 to 1.25 QpF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wish we could get that trailing GL s/w to dig on in and phase a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Bob monster coming up on the NAM And I don't buy it one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Wish we could get that trailing GL s/w to dig on in and phase a bit. It is starting to Dendrite, models are not done with the trend which started at 6z. Give it some more time. SREFS are gung ho on this system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Of course NAM gon' NAM synoptically past 24-36hr. Time for the professional models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The NAM has the low over the FL panhandle at hour 33 where the 6Z GFS still has it in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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