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January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs really warmed up to the clipper type event d7 too. Not majority consensus yet but far better than any previous run. 

Can you please refrain from using the word WARM.

You scared me.

Glad things are starting to look a bit more optimistic for all of us moving forward.  Like you said, lets see it get into medium range, and then maybe we have something to get cranked up about.

 

Nut

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7 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Looks like winter is finally going to get going out this way.  You have to work to find a panel that does not have snow for us after this Thursday morning on the entire run of the GFS.

Sure does look like that!  I just booked a room at blackwater falls state park for the first weekend in february.  Should be a nice deep snowpack by then according to the models.  

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Don't let my general positive attitude and love of pattern analysis to fool you, the last couple months have been rough and beyond frustrating at times even for me.  But yea the guidance has been trending better for several runs now with the one thing we really desperately need, to flip things up top.  And yes its still a long ways from verifying but its trending better as we get closer, and another good sign, its trending faster as we get closer.  The changes up there really start around day 8/9 now.  Its not stuck at day 15, its getting closer and if anything speeding up.  Not shocking, sometimes these phase flips up there just sneak up on the models.  The sudden appearance of something to track next week and maybe a "window" now showing itself for something bigger day 10-15 is a breath of fresh air.  No way to know yet if these are real or another rug about to be pulled but at least there is still hope.  We were wobbling on the edge of the cliff a couple days ago.  

You'd think after getting the rug pulled out many times...law of averages? Lol I trust nothing this winter until we get within 7 days and it's still there! But right now we're just desperate to get a look that at least gives us CHANCES, right? 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS shifted to the gefs -nao look long range today. Not sure how useful weeklies will be since they are based on last nights run and today's shifted quite a bit. 

 

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look good. Basically variations of all the good looks we've seen so far from week 2-7. If Feb into early March goes like that then it will be vodoo hex and not bad luck if we don't get some snow. 

It was a pretty good run even though the 12z eps was better than 0z. 

Thanks. Paranoid as this year has made me, I'm still hoping to see that trough over Japan. Any sight of that down the road?  

On a different note, I wish the GEPS didn't look so bad either.  Even though we never get consensus among the lr models, I'd still like to see the GEPS look like the GEFS. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look good. Basically variations of all the good looks we've seen so far from week 2-7. If Feb into early March goes like that then it will be vodoo hex and not bad luck if we don't get some snow. 

It was a pretty good run even though the 12z eps was better than 0z. 

Good assessment. Not much to add. Not worth overthinking/analyzing the super long range. Seems to be chances for a -AO period esp towards mid month and forward, and the ePAC looks good overall.

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Good assessment. Not much to add. Not worth overthinking/analyzing the super long range. Seems to be chances for a -AO period esp towards mid month and forward, and the ePAC looks good overall.

Part of me believes the -ao comes quicker. Whether it has legs or not is a whole nother disco. But man, 60 consecutive day in + territory is pushing the limits of staying power based on all past long duration + events.  Trends the last few days seem to be upping odds inside of 2 weeks let alone 6. Getting one are wide event even if modest would be a big deal at this point. Lol

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look good. Basically variations of all the good looks we've seen so far from week 2-7. If Feb into early March goes like that then it will be vodoo hex and not bad luck if we don't get some snow. 

It was a pretty good run even though the 12z eps was better than 0z. 

Yea it's a much better run then last week. Trough in the east generally straight through. Some nao help at times. -AO look most of the time. Pna riding chips in from time to time. The one constant is eastern trough. 

Not a bitterly cold look. But that's ok I'm more interested in snow and as you said if that verified and we don't get snow it would be some kind of hex or vodoo curse. 

More impressive even when you consider where it starts. EPS was holding off on shifting the trough through the west and less ridging over the top until today. Today's euro caved to the last few runs of the gefs and geps in that regard. The weeklies get to the same end result but take about a week longer to do it. Today's EPS flipped the nao which basically hit the warp drive and got to the day 21 look on the weeklies by day 15. 

My take is like I said earlier as we get closer the guidance seems to be speeding up the phase change and resultant pattern flip not slowing it down. So if anything else the weeklies were better considering we may fall into the better look even quicker based on today's EPS and gefs. 

Lots of skepticism is healthy at this point. Still a bit far out to get excited. But the trends are very encouraging. There is more then just a hint the AO phase is about to flip and it makes sense as you point out timing wise.  That would be the wild card we need to shake up this game.  I remember way back in December seeing posted in another forum a sst correlation with the current patterns but filtered to show -nao periods and positive. The positive looked pretty much like we have seen. Ugh. But the negative was a complete opposite with eastern trough. That stuck with me. 

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10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Thanks. Paranoid as this year has made me, I'm still hoping to see that trough over Japan. Any sight of that down the road?  

On a different note, I wish the GEPS didn't look so bad either.  Even though we never get consensus among the lr models, I'd still like to see the GEPS look like the GEFS. 

Geps looks good where it matters most up top. We really need that to get right. It's ambiguous over the conus and shows little response as of yet but honestly get the AO/nao right and I'll take my chances. We're heading into the time of year when that teleconnection is the biggest driver. 

Im not arguing it shows bad temperatures verbatim over us. But it's actually not a bad pattern look and I kind of doubt we end up that warm if the blocking verifies as the geps shows. It still does funky things at range. But now all major guidance is flipping the AO/nao in the long range. Take that and run with it. 

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Part of me believes the -ao comes quicker. Whether it has legs or not is a whole nother disco. But man, 60 consecutive day in + territory is pushing the limits of staying power based on all past long duration + events.  Trends the last few days seem to be upping odds inside of 2 weeks let alone 6. Getting one are wide event even if modest would be a big deal at this point. Lol

I'm beginning to think if this is finally the real flip it's going to continue to trend quicker. Latest gefs now starts to tank the AO around day 8. Nao by day 10. If you go back to past runs that started hinting that's a couple days faster.  EPS joined the party today but it didn't start at day 15 it jumped right to day 12 with starting to build heights around Greenland.  If this phase change is real then that's how it often happens.  Quick and without much warning.  We might fast forward right to the week 3-6 look by the end of week 2 if that happens.  

 

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53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Part of me believes the -ao comes quicker. Whether it has legs or not is a whole nother disco. But man, 60 consecutive day in + territory is pushing the limits of staying power based on all past long duration + events.  Trends the last few days seem to be upping odds inside of 2 weeks let alone 6. Getting one are wide event even if modest would be a big deal at this point. Lol

I know its a long way out, but that look around the 18-20th of Feb is pretty sweet. And its a historically good time for big snowstorms.

Ok back to reality, and here and now.

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