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WinterWxLuvr

January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

1,338 posts in this topic

GW talk seems silly with the rain storm. It's not like we're just missing by a couple degrees. We're missing by like 10-20 degrees. It's not even close to being considered marginal. There were plenty of winter rain storms in the 1800s. Lol

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Pre-Storm temps have everything to do with the pattern preceding the storm which flooded the CONUS with pacific air and nothing more. As far as my argument being weak, well whatever. I think most on this board that have a somewhat basic understanding of the weather would strongly agree with me. Now I am done with this Global Warming crap in a thread devoted to the models and the long range. Let's keep it elsewhere, like maybe the forum devoted for, guess what? Global warming.

I agree with you.  We are on the wrong end of a stubborn pattern.  Might break might not.  We just need something to break in our favor

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I've been gone almost 240 hours and not a damn thing has changed. Lol. Back Stateside tomm. Y'all better have something good for me by then. 

Might as well stay another 240. You'll miss nothing. 

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Im sorry guys just thought it was relevant but I also disagree. Only reason I posted it because this was coming from a person I trust and has been actually teaching weather for past 15 years or so.

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6 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Im sorry guys just thought it was relevant but I also disagree. Only reason I posted it because this was coming from a person I trust and has been actually teaching weather for past 15 years or so.

Nice story. Wrong thread.

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Pre-Storm temps have everything to do with the pattern preceding the storm which flooded the CONUS with pacific air and nothing more. As far as my argument being weak, well whatever. I think most on this board that have a somewhat basic understanding of the weather would strongly agree with me. Now I am done with this Global Warming crap in a thread devoted to the models and the long range. Let's keep it elsewhere, like maybe the forum devoted for, guess what? Global warming.

You can't comment on GW and then tell people not to respond.  Gimme a break.  Also I made it clear there may not be enough correlation to affect this particular setup (as Bob alluded to) but no one really knows how much downstream impact GW really does have.  It's not just about a couple of degrees.  Any small shift COULD affect things at a greater scale than we realize.  I just get tired of people trying to ignore its impacts when they really don't know.

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9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

You can't comment on GW and then tell people not to respond.  Gimme a break.  Also I made it clear there may not be enough correlation to affect this particular setup (as Bob alluded to) but no one really knows how much downstream impact GW really does have.  It's not just about a couple of degrees.  Any small shift COULD affect things at a greater scale than we realize.  I just get tired of people trying to ignore its impacts when they really don't know.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/

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Looking over todays 12z ensemble runs, here are my quick take aways. Little if any hint of a -AO/NAO. Not surprising, as anytime that look appears for a few runs, it just as quickly disappears. I suppose if you want to be pessimistic, towards day 15 the pattern looks a lot like what we were hoping to get away from. It may or may not be persistent- my gut says its progressive and the western trough wont lock in for long. After next weeks big rainstorm, things look colder, but dry unless we can get a ns vort to amplify a bit. Looks like a clipperfest where the mountains pick up some decent snows but generally dry in our region(cold & dry!). Beyond that, and leading into the moderation period, there may be a brief window for a more significant storm. Looking at the GEFS ens members, there seems to be a decent signal from about 1/31 to 2/4. One other note, the CFS has also moved away from the robust negative AO/NAO idea (surprise). Overall we have some "workable" periods upcoming, but nothing that makes me super confident there will be a widespread winter storm in the MA. Beyond that, who freaking knows. Based on the end of the EPS run, there are enough changes(more signifiant +h5 heights in the east) that the most recent weeklies run is now pretty useless. Have to wait on the next one.

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I have little faith we get a much better pattern without the nao/AO help that keeps disappearing before becoming reality. I do wonder how much the off the charts qbo is hurting us. 

We will have some very transient windows perhaps like the one early January but nothing sustained. One such window is day 6-12 but we look to waste that because the trough axis seems too east and the pna ridge is building over the top a bit much which flattens the trough instead of getting a sharper one. The nao don't help either.  It's still far enough out to keep an eye to see if maybe something can trend more amplified but the last 72 hours it's been going the wrong way.  

The best shot might be as the pattern relaxes.  Odds are something comes across during that time and perhaps if enough cold is left around....  after that it looks blah.  Not quite as bad as before.  More like the mid December pattern but feb style.  That's not the end of the world but it's not great by any stretch.  We could score something if we timed something up during a period when the cold pushes along the boundary.  But honestly our best hope is that the nao or AO decides to flip phases suddenly  geps hints at something late.  Gefs is meh.  EPS is the worst look and shifts the PV bank up poleward.  A few days ago I said if that showed up we were in trouble and so my more negative tone is directly linked to that  

 

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38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

What's really in trouble is the SAI theory.

Yea there might be some correlation but it's far too unreliable to make the main determinate in any forecast. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I have little faith we get a much better pattern without the nao/AO help that keeps disappearing before becoming reality. I do wonder how much the off the charts qbo is hurting us. 

We will have some very transient windows perhaps like the one early January but nothing sustained. One such window is day 6-12 but we look to waste that because the trough axis seems too east and the pna ridge is building over the top a bit much which flattens the trough instead of getting a sharper one. The nao don't help either.  It's still far enough out to keep an eye to see if maybe something can trend more amplified but the last 72 hours it's been going the wrong way.  

The best shot might be as the pattern relaxes.  Odds are something comes across during that time and perhaps if enough cold is left around....  after that it looks blah.  Not quite as bad as before.  More like the mid December pattern but feb style.  That's not the end of the world but it's not great by any stretch.  We could score something if we timed something up during a period when the cold pushes along the boundary.  But honestly our best hope is that the nao or AO decides to flip phases suddenly  geps hints at something late.  Gefs is meh.  EPS is the worst look and shifts the PV bank up poleward.  A few days ago I said if that showed up we were in trouble and so my more negative tone is directly linked to that  

 

Hasn't the LR almost continually showed an evolving 'favorable' pattern in the 13+ Day lead time since October only to fizzle out with a 10-day lead time or less? Now that the 13+ day progs show an atrocious pattern, I wouldn't be surprised to see that atrocious look vanish as lead time shrinks only to yield more favorable results irt to the overall pattern. I'm  not saying it will happen but seriously.....we've gotten GREAT looks at long lead times over and over and over again since October only to have the football pulled out from under us ala Lucy. You don't think for a minute perhaps the same thing is happening here? I know, I know....but all signs point to crap pattern, PV is progged too far N etc....I get it. But we also were saying 13 days ago or so how ripe the pattern looked and some were calling a +PNA/-EPO/-AO a virtual lock and, ummm, well, yeah.....that worked out well.  

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea there might be some correlation but it's far too unreliable to make the main determinate in any forecast. 

statistically it seems to be much better than any other long range tools for predicting winter weather months in advance.  I would still favor it over any other methods.

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28 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

statistically it seems to be much better than any other long range tools for predicting winter weather months in advance.  I would still favor it over any other methods.

It's worked great the past 3 winters

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hasn't the LR almost continually showed an evolving 'favorable' pattern in the 13+ Day lead time since October only to fizzle out with a 10-day lead time or less? Now that the 13+ day progs show an atrocious pattern, I wouldn't be surprised to see that atrocious look vanish as lead time shrinks only to yield more favorable results irt to the overall pattern. I'm  not saying it will happen but seriously.....we've gotten GREAT looks at long lead times over and over and over again since October only to have the football pulled out from under us ala Lucy. You don't think for a minute perhaps the same thing is happening here? I know, I know....but all signs point to crap pattern, PV is progged too far N etc....I get it. But we also were saying 13 days ago or so how ripe the pattern looked and some were calling a +PNA/-EPO/-AO a virtual lock and, ummm, well, yeah.....that worked out well.  

  I don't agree we have had great looks at day 15 not verify. I don't but the going narrative that the guidance has failed us. We had decent looks at long range in December and we did verify a half decent pattern with some cold. But several systems came out spaces way far apart plus too much energy vs strung out waves. We needed a wave to ride the boundary and instead got cutter after cutter. Then we had a few days where the cold pressed and we needed something to amp and instead got weak waves suppressed south. Then as the cold left, cutter. It was flawed but not a god awful pattern.

The models were showing the crap late dec pattern from 15 days. Then they showed the early Jan period that scored me my only snow and narrowly missed with the coastal. But they also nailed the reversion to an awful pattern to a warm pattern from range. 

Then they showed the colder shift coming. And it does look colder for a week. That doesn't mean snow.  After they look mediocre. Not awful but not good. Actually some small adjustments and it could be ok so I'm not jumping yet but it's not looking great. 

But just because a few op runs at day 15 showed snow doesn't mean models teased us. There was never ever one instance this year where the majority of guidance was showing a strong signal for snow. We have had some decent "it could snow" looks but nothing like last years one good pattern was giving off signals at range. Or like in late 2015 or most of 2014 when there were times the long range ensemble mean snow was like 18" with no members showing less then 5". And the h5 was screaming oh yeah.

This year the best we ever had was a pretty good opportunity never a great one. So maybe you saw some day 15 gfs run with 8" of snow and got excited but I feel like they never fooled us or lead us that wrong. The op euro showed some day 10 ghosts but never with ensemble support outside a. Hair Mary type chance. I've pretty much seen the decent colder periods and the crap warm ones coming from 2 weeks away all winter. 

The only thing they have busted on was thinking the nao might go negative during some of the colder periods. It did go slightly negative twice but mostly in the end they were pacific driven. 

 

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1 hour ago, kurtstack said:

statistically it seems to be much better than any other long range tools for predicting winter weather months in advance.  I would still favor it over any other methods.

You can't over simplify the weather. Yes you can use one or two factors and just ride them and have a decent score rate but then you are resigned to fail anytime other factors drive the pattern like this year. If we ever want to fully realize the ability to predict seaonally with legit accuracy we must strive to understand all the permutations that go into the pattern and correctly weight them and how they play off each other to influence the seasonal variance. Ultimately it's probably not something we can do without the aid of a computer model to help assess the multitude of variables and combine analogs with objective guidance predicting pattern evolution to come up with a more holistic representation of the likely pattern. 

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