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January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Wxbell had jacked up zoomed panels briefly. Forget what I said about .4-.6. More like .2-.4

What is start time on the Euro?

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

What is start time on the Euro?

 

A small band works into DC and west between 6z and 12z Sat. Doesn't hit everyone though. It's narrow. 

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Some years being added to the day 8 and 11!analogs today are pretty good. And not centered way off from flips to better patterns in those years. 1958, 1978, 1987, 1960, and 1961 all making guest appearances in the analog list now.  Obviously those are picking up on Bobs point about the split flow and stj look emerging because a lot of ninos make the list. 

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

A small band works into DC and west between 6z and 12z Sat. Doesn't hit everyone though. It's narrow. 

Awesome thanks, I have a flight out at 9am Saturday.  Wouldn't mind if it were delayed/cancelled though.

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some years being added to the day 8 and 11!analogs today are pretty good. And not centered way off from flips to better patterns in those years. 1958, 1978, 1987, 1960, and 1961 all making guest appearances in the analog list now.  Obviously those are picking up on Bobs point about the split flow and stj look emerging because a lot of ninos make the list. 

When were the first snowstorms after the flips in those years, were they delayed or pretty immediate in late January/early February?

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44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Even with the blotchy precip, total precip panels through 6z sunday is between .4-.6 for most everyone. That would be more than a minor ice event for the burbs. 

i am seeing .11 for Leesburg

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23 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

When were the first snowstorms after the flips in those years, were they delayed or pretty immediate in late January/early February?

All different some had snow periods centered mid feb to mid march like 1958. Some were mid Jan to mid feb like 1987. That's not really how you use them though. Every year is different. But some of the analog dates are centered only a few days or so before something good started those years.  That's a much better sign.  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

All different some had snow periods centered mid feb to mid march like 1958. Some were mid Jan to mid feb like 1987. That's not really how you use them though. Every year is different. But some of the analog dates are centered only a few days or so before something good started those years.  That's a much better sign.  

Great.  Sounds like we could see dividends rather quickly after the flip.  I sure hope LR models and analogs are onto something here.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Some years being added to the day 8 and 11!analogs today are pretty good. And not centered way off from flips to better patterns in those years. 1958, 1978, 1987, 1960, and 1961 all making guest appearances in the analog list now.  Obviously those are picking up on Bobs point about the split flow and stj look emerging because a lot of ninos make the list. 

Euro day 10 reminds me of December 2015.

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18 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro day 10 reminds me of December 2015.

One thing the look suggests is that day 10 pattern isn't a stable setup that locks in for long. 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

i am seeing .11 for Leesburg

I corrected myself with a second post. Wxbell briefly posted jacked up zoomed panels. .2-.4 in general except for lessburg 

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Euro op might be trying to initiate the flip a few days ahead of schedule. Once the ridge pulls north enough heights under it will start to lower and things will flip. Another day of good signs imo. 

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32 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Is that a block there?  (pulled from a twitter post!)

It is but it will be about as effective as this one until the pac shuffles

 

wastedblock.JPG

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro op might be trying to initiate the flip a few days ahead of schedule. Once the ridge pulls north enough heights under it will start to lower and things will flip. Another day of good signs imo. 

Have been liking what I am seeing as well. Is it just me or are the GEFS and EPS ensembles strongly hinting at a significant storm somewhere in the east roughly day 13-15?

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It is but it will be about as effective as this one until the pac shuffles

 

wastedblock.JPG

lol...there are 2 blocks including the one blocking cold air from reaching us

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Is this what you're talking about?

 

ecmwf_T850a_nhem_11.png&key=bf4a25634cd661ccd6a9cef0dc4f4c4bbd06ee28a28871500b04a2d031562fe2


Lol...this is the opposite of this weekend. Heights are low on euro 10 day and it's torching while weekend has high heights but wintry mix

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That looks more like a heat dome over North America.  Or am I looking at it wrong?  

its not the greatest look ive ever seen for snow production

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27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It is but it will be about as effective as this one until the pac shuffles

 

wastedblock.JPG

It's a step in the evolution not the end product hopefully. That blocking in 2012 was one I felt we lacked luck on. Yes at times the PAC was hostile but there were periods mid December and again around xmas where we had chances and it just didn't work out. Some close misses and one system just failed to come together right. December climo can be problematic also. I actually did ok up here during that month. Had several respectable snows. I doubt that would be a shutout pattern in feb but it's not ideal. But I think it would get better after that. 

Goimg to need some patience because all the cold is being vacated. It's going to take some time. I'm skeptical of the day 14-15 signal for that reason. Might take a system or two coming through to reestablish enough cold. 

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19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That looks more like a heat dome over North America.  Or am I looking at it wrong?  

There is a lag. We're just coming out of the putrid h5 pattern there. All the cold is gone. Give it a week to redevelop. 

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49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It is but it will be about as effective as this one until the pac shuffles

 

wastedblock.JPG

Exactly. That is a useless, faux block. A response to the massive upstream AK vortex/trough. Now by the very end of the eps run, things appear to be shifting towards a more favorable look.

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Nice to see the 18z gfs move precip in here overnight friday like the euro. The earlier the better because the column won't last long on Sat. At least for snow anyways. 

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