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January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

end of the GFS run is pretty cringe worthy ugly.  Rebuilds the PV over the pole with a raging positive AO and torch pattern setting up across the CONUS. That would be the end..time to pack it up and go home if things trend towards that.  

End of February or give up entire winter end?

In seriousness though that is hr 384. No one should even pay attention to that. Like looking at hr 84 nam. I wouldn't worry

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, I wish I was at 2-3". My yard has just over 1" and it took 2 events to get there. lol

We've had some real stinkers. 2011-12 was below 5" pretty much region wide. 2012-13 was probably over 5" in my yard but the way I got there sucked so bad it doesn't even count. The winter was a abomination. 2001-02 was horrid and below 5" in the cities. 97-98 got the northern and western areas ok. But sucked near the cities. I was living in CO during that one though so I don't have any bad feelings towards it. 

I love CO and have thought of moving to the mountains there several times, but often think I would miss the big coastals here.  Unless you live literally on the mountains, most of the towns up there get regular snow but usually not big huge dumps at a time just lots and lots and lots of 4-6" over and over.  But years like this make me think I should go and trade the occasional blizzard for regular snow every few days.  

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2 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

End of February or give up entire winter end?

I am not going to stress one op run at day 16 but were probably talking end of the universe lol.

Were looking at Feb 10 already there, and the pattern is just setting up with the absolute worst combination imaginable, low heights all across the AO domain with the worst over AK and Greenland, and an absolute torch setting up probably right after with all of North AMerica flooded with mild pac air.  Thats going to take a long time to break out of, judging from past times that set up including earlier this month, were talking 10 days at least.  Then we would need to reload cold over NA which isnt easy in late Feb.  Now were into March.  I guess you could argue we get one last roll of the dice in March but honestly if things move towards that reality I am done and would focus my attention on setting up some weekend trip with my son to get him some snow.  The poor toddler has been begging me for snow, asking when it will snow every freaking day, he watches frosty the snowman over and over and his paw patrol show which seems to have snow on every episode now...and its his first real winter he is old enough to play and the one time we had snow he had the flu and only got one day to play in the snow all winter.  If it doesn't come to us I will have to take him to the snow.  Considering a road trip this Saturday out to western MD or Davis WV so he can just play in the snow for a few hours.  

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

end of the GFS run is pretty cringe worthy ugly.  Rebuilds the PV over the pole with a raging positive AO and torch pattern setting up across the CONUS. That would be the end..time to pack it up and go home if things trend towards that.  

Yeah, back to basically the pattern we are moving out of, just a month later in the calendar. From what I have read posted in other areas though Euro is still forecasting a solid SSW and subsequent PV displacement while GFS isn't as favorable. Its going to take that getting resolved, then the downstream effect to take place before we can know for sure how long any high lat blocking can sustain. Another words expect more volatility than usual, and if it works out favorable for E-US expect to see the good look pop up seemingly out of nowhere once the models pick it up.

Edit: Here is from a source much more knowledgeable than myself on the matter:

 

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

end of the GFS run is pretty cringe worthy ugly.  Rebuilds the PV over the pole with a raging positive AO and torch pattern setting up across the CONUS. That would be the end..time to pack it up and go home if things trend towards that.  

We're on track to beat 1950-51 for mild, snowless at this rate.

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I love CO and have thought of moving to the mountains there several times, but often think I would miss the big coastals here.  Unless you live literally on the mountains, most of the towns up there get regular snow but usually not big huge dumps at a time just lots and lots and lots of 4-6" over and over.  But years like this make me think I should go and trade the occasional blizzard for regular snow every few days.  

That sounds like paradise.

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39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I love CO and have thought of moving to the mountains there several times, but often think I would miss the big coastals here.  Unless you live literally on the mountains, most of the towns up there get regular snow but usually not big huge dumps at a time just lots and lots and lots of 4-6" over and over.  But years like this make me think I should go and trade the occasional blizzard for regular snow every few days.  

It's a great life but certainly not for everyone. Couldn't have picked a better place to spend my 20's. Fit my personality to a tee at the time. The valley floor towns mostly average 150" or less and the biggest single 24hr totals than 12". I lived at the base of Buffalo mountain and worked in Keystone. An 8 mile drive went from 9700' to 8500' back to 9600'. Typical stark differences in snowfall over short distances. The big storms come in cycles and not individual events. It can snow at different intensities for 5 days straight. Pretty amazing. Not the best place to raise a family with public education though. Majority of local kids don't go to college or just go to the mountain community college but they are incredible skiers and boarders. lol. 

There are a couple downsides to living up high in ski country. Mud season (mid april through all of may) sucks. Backcountry skiing is the only game in town and everything is muddy all the time. Summers are really short and monsoon season (mid july though most of aug) sucks because it gets cloudy/chilly/rainy most afternoons. 

If I had a good job in the Denver area I would probably live in Evergreen or near there in the foothills. They get destroyed with upslope storms. Like 3'+ when a good one hits but not nearly as much nickle and diming as west of the divide. Precip shadow with sw-nw flow. But a good middle ground between the major cities and ski country. 

I can assure you that you won't miss the coastals though. That was the last thing on my mind living there. lol

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27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah the GEFS looks just fine.

I would like to see the higher heights over the other side of the pole extend over the pole a bit more and press down on the pattern as a whole a bit.  It's a perfectly acceptable B pattern type look, but if we really want a high probability snow pattern that would be the adjustment to look for.  Its close...really close to good.   

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a great life but certainly not for everyone. Couldn't have picked a better place to spend my 20's. Fit my personality to a tee at the time. The valley floor towns mostly average 150" or less and the biggest single 24hr totals than 12". I lived at the base of Buffalo mountain and worked in Keystone. An 8 mile drive went from 9700' to 8500' back to 9600'. Typical stark differences in snowfall over short distances. The big storms come in cycles and not individual events. It can snow at different intensities for 5 days straight. Pretty amazing. Not the best place to raise a family with public education though. Majority of local kids don't go to college or just go to the mountain community college but they are incredible skiers and boarders. lol. 

There are a couple downsides to living up high in ski country. Mud season (mid april through all of may) sucks. Backcountry skiing is the only game in town and everything is muddy all the time. Summers are really short and monsoon season (mid july though most of aug) sucks because it gets cloudy/chilly/rainy most afternoons. 

If I had a good job in the Denver area I would probably live in Evergreen or near there in the foothills. They get destroyed with upslope storms. Like 3'+ when a good one hits but not nearly as much nickle and diming as west of the divide. Precip shadow with sw-nw flow. But a good middle ground between the major cities and ski country. 

I can assure you that you won't miss the coastals though. That was the last thing on my mind living there. lol

I need to learn how to reply to one post in another thread...but I am replying over in banter.  

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Most be ramping up to something decent.   Let me guess.  240 hours.

Ha, it looks like nothing.  There was a pretty good wedge of cold in place with moisture approaching from the west-southwest, but luckily the high ran off like they all do and we are warm before any precip gets here.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Whatever the euro is about to spit out, don't get suckered in.

lol yea you read my mind.  The op euro has been the tease this year in the 8-10 day range for sure.  

Euro suppresses a lobe of the PV into Quebec which creates confluence behind it allowing a high to slide down and across shifting the boundary south from the GFS.  The problem with the euro would be suppression not a cutter if anything.  Bottom line is the period has potential depending on how the boundary sets up based on those features up to our north.  

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11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But the cold miraculously made a comeback and now we get hammered with 1/2" of snow at ............... 234 hours.

Good times.

the real threat is what its ejecting from the west day 10.  If that high over the lakes gets locked in behind the PV lobe over eastern Canada that could be a threat.  The boundary is starting off far enough south to keep us in play if the system doesn't amp too much.  Its coming out pretty deep so the threat is definitely a cutter over suppressed IMO but the cold is in place and its not racing out like in past setups and we have some lower heights to our northeast instead of that crap WAR that has allowed our highs to race off to the east before.  Its doable.  

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