January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[BristowWx]

3 hours ago, BTRWx said:

Just look how often the Arctic Oscillation is being modeled to oscillate in the near-term!

But positive regardless.  Easy to see why this winter has blown chunks.  I will be amazed if we get to 50% of climo snow...even more than 2 inches would be nice.  Good thing I booked an extended stay in the panic room

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

I know we're not in the business of tracking wind/rain storms this time of year, but that cutoff low early next week looks intense...30-40 mph winds for an extended time period?

[frd]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

But positive regardless.  Easy to see why this winter has blown chunks.  I will be amazed if we get to 50% of climo snow...even more than 2 inches would be nice.  Good thing I booked an extended stay in the panic room

The negative AO phase certainly hates 2017 so far . 

[gymengineer]

28 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I know we're not in the business of tracking wind/rain storms this time of year, but that cutoff low early next week looks intense...30-40 mph winds for an extended time period?

The 0Z GFS's output is kind of bonkers. Prolonged true east (as in perpendicular to the coast) winds on Monday that would cause very consequential coastal flooding from the Delmarva to New England.

[psuhoffman]

Big changes to the h5 look during the day 9-10 period. Gfs continues to trend towards something digging more.  More stj lurking this run too. 

[MN Transplant]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Meh, I have no recollection how warm that month was anywhere.  Probably because I subconsciously blocked it out. Lol

International Falls, MN (on the Canadian border) was throwing up +40 departures.  We were +12 for the month, off the top of my head.

[mitchnick]

Lol. End of GEFS and GEPS runs = CANSIPS. 

[winterymix]

I suggested more than once that we would have to wait until late January/early February.

 

This one may go north of us but if so, may be the one after will be our happy time.

 

Here she comes:

 

 

[WxUSAF]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. End of GEFS and GEPS runs = CANSIPS. 

You mean like at 384hr only?  6z GEFS has a long period of cross-polar flow for the last couple days of Jan and first days of Feb.  Looks totally northern stream dominated, so who knows if we'll get lucky with a clipper, but it's definitely a cold look. 

[dallen7908]

While the day-10 big storm has disappeared from the Euro it does show a return to January-like temperatures with a day-10 Saturday high of ~40. 

[mdsnowlover]

2 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

While the day-10 big storm has disappeared from the Euro it does show a return to January-like temperatures with a day-10 Saturday high of ~40. 

it also shows the beginning of some moisture getting together in tenessee valley

[mitchnick]

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You mean like at 384hr only?  6z GEFS has a long period of cross-polar flow for the last couple days of Jan and first days of Feb.  Looks totally northern stream dominated, so who knows if we'll get lucky with a clipper, but it's definitely a cold look. 

I was referring to 5h anomalies. But since you mentioned it, the GEPS are AN temps post 324hrs. The GEFS wait until the very end.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. End of GEFS and GEPS runs = CANSIPS. 

Not necessarily.  I don't know if you have access to the euro weeklies but the relaxation of the PNA Feb 2-6 has been predicted and makes sense.  The base state of the PAC just doesn't support a sustained ridge there.  However, if you look at the specifics, cold is pressing in that pattern with the PV starting to displace down into eastern Canada, and we are still on the cold side of the boundary on the GEFS and EPS at that time.  Yes there is a southeast ridge, but pretty muted, and its possible we could find ourselves on the right side of a gradient type system in that pattern.  But the bigger issue is where does that pattern go from there.

I keep coming back to the NAO, I thought back in the fall if we didnt get any Atlantic help we were screwed and I still feel that way.  THe current EPA ridge is probably being aided by the healthy MJO wave traversing phase 8/1.  As the effects of that wane in early Feb its likely the PAC reverts to its base state or at least closer to it.  However, we still see signs of the ridging near Alaska, and with the SOI crashing hard right now its possible the PNA reverts to a more neutralish state not negative.  But the key to the better look that the rest of the weeklies portrays through Feb into March was its developments on the Atlantic side from there.  

If you match up the current GEFS and EPS with day 18 of the weeklies they line up almost perfectly.  If you can't see the weeklies just look at the last frame of the 6z GEFS, they are pretty spot on.  From there, the euro weeklies had the PV near Baffin to continue to drop just a bit, enough that heights continue to rise across greenland, and by day 21 (feb 6) a ridge bridge forms between the ridging over AK and Greenland.  This traps the PV down near the north shore of Hudson Bay squashing the southeast ridge back down.  At that time the PNA is still probably slightly negative or neutral.  But by day 23 (feb 8) in response to the displaced PV forcing the trough into the east heights begin to rise up the west coast again and the PNA ridge goes back up.  

Some thought the Feb pattern was driven primarily from the Pacific, but the development of the ridge across the top linked to the Atlantic side is crucial.  THe NAO never even goes hard negative but just the more neutral look with ridging in the northern half of the NAO domain helps to press the PV down enough to force troughing into the east.  Heights respond in the west in relation and probably aided by the new base state being more neutral vs hostile in the Pacific allows a sustained PNA ridge.  If we lose that ridge bridge over the top we probably lose the better PNA look.  Either way the relax of the PNA for a few days and some ridging across the CONUS was predicted even by the better runs we all loved for Feb and makes sense timing with the tropical forcing and evolution of the pattern.  I am not 100 percent confident we get the help we need to lead to the evolution on the weeklies that would be good but at the same time nothing showing up on the long range argues were in trouble yet.  The relax we see day 15 was part of the process and is only short lived.   What would be a sign its time to panic is if we start seeing signs that PV is going back up into greenland in the long range.  That would be the first warning shot that the train has come off the rails.  

 

[osfan24]

Maybe February turns around, but it's so painful to watch these next two huge storms come in and dump copious amounts of rain. Seems rather unlikely given all the precip we will get in the next week that there is going to be a big snowstorm lurking sometime after that, at least if you go by the law of averages. What a waste.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was referring to 5h anomalies. But since you mentioned it, the GEPS are AN temps post 324hrs. The GEFS wait until the very end.

Were still right along the boundary even day 16 on the GEFS and by then there are already signs the cold is pressing not retreating across the CONUS.   

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe February turns around, but it's so painful to watch these next two huge storms come in and dump copious amounts of rain. Seems rather unlikely given all the precip we will get in the next week that there is going to be a big snowstorm lurking sometime after that, at least if you go by the law of averages. What a waste.

There are some hints in the guidance lately, but most likely whats lurking is cold & dry.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. End of GEFS and GEPS runs = CANSIPS. 

This is the end of the GEFS.  I actually don't think its a bad look.  Southeast ridge yes but cold pressing down on top due to the location of the PV and already signs of the ridging over the top developing a day ahead of schedule per the euro timeline.   If we still want to buy the euro progression this is how everything plays out from there.  

 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Were still right along the boundary even day 16 on the GEFS and by then there are already signs the cold is pressing not retreating across the CONUS.   

First,  I said GEPS and GEFS. GEPS are warm post 324. Second, run the 500h anomalies on the GEFS from 240hrs. through the end of the run and it's headed towards the GEPS 500h look. Of course,  I didn't even bother to mention how dry both models are post 240....you know,  when it's cold enough to snow. Lol

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the end of the GEFS.  I actually don't think its a bad look.  Southeast ridge yes but cold pressing down on top due to the location of the PV and already signs of the ridging over the top developing a day ahead of schedule per the euro timeline.   If we still want to buy the euro progression this is how everything plays out from there.  

 

I think it looks like crap. At 384, average temps are rising and the SE ridge is building. 

Let me save you and everyone the pain of writing/reading.  You're not going to convince me.  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

First,  I said GEPS and GEFS. GEPS are warm post 324. Second, run the 500h anomalies on the GEFS from 240hrs. through the end of the run and it's headed towards the GEPS 500h look. Of course,  I didn't even bother to mention how dry both models are post 240....you know,  when it's cold enough to snow. Lol

I guess we're looking at different things. There is a trough coming into the west and that temporarily rises heights in the east but it's transient. By day 16 heights are already rising again in the west. The other key spot I'm looking at are the heights rising over the top in Greenland. That's a key to where things go.  I highlighted in my other post how things should progress from there. 

Let me be clear I'm not pretending this is a good winter. And I'm not predicting some miracle turn around. And I'm not even sold we avoid an awful fate and this ends up with 73/02/2012 in our pantheon of sucky winters. But I'm also not giving up on some snow at some point and the day 15 guidance right now isn't a sign that we're screwed. It looks like a temporary relax to me. It could go wrong from there but I can't see that's a foregone conclusion. We were all saying how good the weeklies looked and day 16 of the gefs matches day 19 of the weeklies pretty good. From that spot things evolved to a great look a week later. So why when that exact look moves closer 3 days is it suddenly a bad thing?  This relax was there all along. 

[clskinsfan]

Nobody talking about last nights Euro run for Tuesday. Obviously there is not any cold air around. And I am going off of free maps. But it looks like the 850's are pretty close in the mountains....Or am I just wish casting?

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think it looks like crap. At 384, average temps are rising and the SE ridge is building. 

Let me save you and everyone the pain of writing/reading.  You're not going to convince me.  

Then do you think these frames look like crap?

Because they are the times just before and after that gefs look you hate and show essentially the same thing. But we loved them as part of the weeklies because they lead to this a few days later...

so why is that same look suddenly something to panic over?  Like I said it's a relax but nothings off yet from how the pattern was supposed to evolve to that good look feb 5-15th on the weeklies.  They relax again feb 15-25 then reload everything late feb into march.  I'm not saying it's going to happen but if we want to hope it does the gefs isn't showing anything is off yet  

 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nobody talking about last nights Euro run for Tuesday. Obviously there is not any cold air around. And I am going off of free maps. But it looks like the 850's are pretty close in the mountains....Or am I just wish casting?

It's closer. Been trending closer for days. But it would still have to all come together perfect. But could I imagine a few inches of wet snow at higher elevations at the end sure. 

[mattie g]

↑ is so annoying.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I just commented above....models have trended colder at surface and 850 but still need more trending. Probably a heavy  rain threat most likely but I haven't given up for a chance of some wet snow N/W of the cities.

I'm keeping an eye on it but I don't expect anything. I tend not to post much on things that only impact my area so as not to annoy the masses. 

[frd]

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think it looks like crap. At 384, average temps are rising and the SE ridge is building. 

Let me save you and everyone the pain of writing/reading.  You're not going to convince me.  

This hobby at times is frustrating for sure. 

I love the SOI tanking, but it appears the base state of the Nina and the colder SSTs off the West Coast to me would not have the + PNA lock in

Help from the stat really is not going to be effective to us here looking at everything combined.

Unlikely - AO and unlikey  - NAO ( maybe we get a negative NAO for a short time, but doubt it matters)

I am looking ahead to the lower  solar minimum winters ahead,  and hoping to cash in big when a Westerly QBO takes place over the winter.

Still , I feel an event is possible in early Feb., but as others have mentioned the flavor of the winter is almost set in stone. I do not buy JB's big reversal with those maps he shows indicating how the strat warming will lock in cold for Feb into March.

I believe to get a great to good winter you need a decent snowfall in early to mid Dec.. I have observed that works almost every time .

Did in 02 and in 09 and other years as well.

[WVclimo]

My area has had a precip deficit in the year since the blizzard of 10-12".  So I am happy to see a modeled heavy precip event, even it its rain.  I am sure the well could use it.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

↑ is so annoying.

Sorry I'll tone it down.  I sometimes go off on a rant and need to relax.  Just tired of the negativity. It happens every time we go a month or two of winter without snow. As if that means it's never gonna snow again. It will. Maybe next week. Maybe next month. Maybe next year. But it will snow at some point and complaining every day about it not snowing seems to just make it worse. 

[mattie g]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Sorry I'll tone it down.  I sometimes go off on a rant and need to relax.  Just tired of the negativity. It happens every time we go a month or two of winter without snow. As if that means it's never gonna snow again. It will. Maybe next week. Maybe next month. Maybe next year. But it will snow at some point and complaining every day about it not snowing seems to just make it worse. 

Not you!

I'm referring to the maps of a bombed low in an almost-perfect location bringing us all a cold rain!

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Not you!

I'm referring to the maps of a bombed low in an almost-perfect location bringing us all a cold rain!

Oh...lol, I should still take my own advice and relax a bit though.  As for those progs, yea annoying.  The larger problem is the totally shot temperature profiles over the CONUS leading in.  The next issue is how the system evolves.  Given the first problem we would need everything to line up perfect.  Ideally the system to bomb just to our east.  The storm initially goes west then reorganizes east but as it goes through that process there really isnt a strong organized band of precip to the west.  On the euro the CCB redevelops to our northeast.  Its a disorganized mess as it crosses our area.  We would need the system to be intensifying and heights to be crashing over our area to have a shot.  GGEM was closer to that solution then the euro.