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WxWatcher007

Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

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5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

3k not too pretty either

Not sure I follow.  1.5-2" for DC using 10:1 ratios, which they won't be... seems pretty in line with other guidance.

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1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

Does HRRR come out hourly?


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yes

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1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

Does HRRR come out hourly?


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Yes

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1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

Does HRRR come out hourly?


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You have got to be kidding me

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4 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Note sure about the warning, but here's archived media.

http://www.tidewaternews.com/2010/03/03/residents-recall-blizzard-of-1980/

Kudos to my librarian wife for digging up the data:

Only the 3rd Blizzard Warning issued by Wakefield from records dating back to 1986. Both in 2010 for Delmarva (Feb. 10, Dec. 26). I am not sure about pre-1986.

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I wonder what ratios they used for that map. It's about what I'd expect if we got 10:1 ratios, but I think they'll probably be higher tomorrow.

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I'm gonna need a stronger vort. I am possibly looking at one of the worst fringe jobs in my lifetime.

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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A family friend is on the road driving through Emporia, VA and reported flakes in the last half hour! Not even close to game time yet

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6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

I hate seeing NYC and SNE get into the big snows so easily... why cant we stick out into the Atlantic just a biiiiiit more....

Maybe some day :whistle:

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4 minutes ago, cae said:

I wonder what ratios they used for that map. It's about what I'd expect if we got 10:1 ratios, but I think they'll probably be higher tomorrow.

Interesting thought

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1 minute ago, cae said:

I wonder what ratios they used for that map. It's about what I'd expect if we got 10:1 ratios, but I think they'll probably be higher tomorrow.

It seems to me that forecasting ratios greater than 10:1 is tricky business.  I'm not an expert with ratios but since we'll be on the fringe, right on the edge of much drier air, I'm wondering if that could affect saturation in the dendritic growth zone and perhaps limit better ratios.  Any expert opinion on this would be appreciated.   I know LWX said 12:1 to 15:1 should be expected.    

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9 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

Gotta get those plate tectonics going

so many possibilities, just none in any of our lifetimes

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6 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well, we did have an earthquake here a few years back, so....:D

I remember that quake, Aug 23 2011, 5.4 on the Richter, right here in Dale City

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1 minute ago, Jebman said:

I remember that quake, Aug 23 2011, 5.4 on the Richter, right here in Dale City

I was driving at the time.  I thought my axle broke and pulled over to the side of the road to check.

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4 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I remember that quake, Aug 23 2011, 5.4 on the Richter, right here in Dale City

I hear they're still having issues with the Pencil.

eta: calling on mods for a reroute

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I remember that quake, Aug 23 2011, 5.4 on the Richter, right here in Dale City


No the epicenter was mineral VA.


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Just now, smokeybandit said:

I was driving at the time.  I thought my axle broke and pulled over to the side of the road to check.

I was out in the neighbor's yard pulling up a small sapling by main strength. First I thought it was a concrete truck rumbling by. Then I realized what was happening! Neighbors started running out of their houses.

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26 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

I hate seeing NYC and SNE get into the big snows so easily... why cant we stick out into the Atlantic just a biiiiiit more....

We're suffering right now because the storm seems to go through a period where it gets better organized and the precip sheild contracts and tightens up and it happens right at our lat.  we need it to not do that. Have the better move west early in the qpf continue on its northeast trajectory not take on an ene component for a time before going north again.   I've seen that happen before. Both good and bad. 

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Just called LWX to see what ratios they used for the snowfall maps on their site and this was their response: " Not sure...depends on the forecaster....he already went home."  Good to know LWX. Good. to. know. :lol:

Edit: I spoke with a forecaster

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2 minutes ago, FairfaxVAsnowlover said:

Just called LWX to see what ratios they used for the snowfall maps on their site and this was their response: " Not sure...depends on the forecaster....he already went home."  Good to know LWX. Good. to. know. :lol:

Edit: I spoke with a forecaster

what do you expect from a gvt worker, when i was working i rarely went home on time, too busy

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