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WxWatcher007

Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Let us pray...

Almighty Euro, 

We call on you at this hour, humbled by the grace you have poured on us these last few runs. We have been led to this moment by the mortal models, but we know that there is only one model worthy to be praised. We lift our eyes to you and pray that you shift this storm further northwest. Deliver Wes from this winter of despair. Bless the DC metro with a significant snow event and accurate snow measurements by your servants at DCA. Take into account the bonus snow our northern brothers and sisters are receiving when forming your jackpot zones. Give strength to our southern friends who are in dire need of support. We know you can do it. If we have angered you in any way, stay your hand of judgement as we work to turn from our wicked ways. 

We ask this in your sovereign name.

Amen. 

Amen and you're hired!

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Yes GFS on it's own.

48hrs

Euro 996

GGEM 999

UKMET 994

GFS: 1004

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Just look at hour 42. That .2 contour jumped quite a bit between 12z and now. 

I'm just worried about holding onto gains right now. I don't want to see a backslide, but if the NAM/RGEM is the upper limit, hopefully we can get the other globals to move toward it. Really nice trend. 

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'll post wxbell maps in a a few.  Have to get ready for bed...

Awesome

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Nice trends today. Euro has 4" imby, bested only by the NAM. I will probably still go to the beach. Rather experience a bigger event.

What kind of QPF does the EC have for the Ocean City, MD area ?  Considering a trip there tomorrow evening.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

About .16 qpf DCA. In on the back edge of measurable about .02. wes is about .38

thats just wave 2. Have to subtract out tonight's stuff. 

Accuwx text gives us .15 qpf. Doesn't match wxbell maps. Strange.

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1 minute ago, WVclimo said:

What kind of QPF does the EC have for the Ocean City, MD area ?  Considering a trip there tomorrow evening.

Im looking at the snow map so I will give you the snow amount.

8" all from the main event, as Euro has nothing there for tonights weak sauce.

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2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Accuwx text gives us .15 qpf. Doesn't match wxbell maps. Strange.

Did you use dmw?

the text output should be most accurate. It's specific to the airport and a fixed location. The maps rely on gridded plotting and if anything is slightly off can be a little wrong. Usually wxbell maps are good but I've seen others be off on a gradient by 10 miles or so. That makes a difference in this type of thing. 

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Just now, NovaTarHeel said:

Gotta be happy about the NE trend, but I'm feeling greedy. Want more. 

Why not. 2 more trends like the last two and we're looking at warning criteria lol

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Did you use dmw?

the text output should be most accurate. It's specific to the airport and a fixed location. The maps rely on gridded plotting and if anything is slightly off can be a little wrong. Usually wxbell maps are good but I've seen others be off on a gradient by 10 miles or so. That makes a difference in this type of thing. 

I just looked again. I had daw by accident. My bad. Looks like .04 which matches wxbell maps exact.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Why not. 2 more trends like the last two and we're looking at warning criteria lol

Yup lol

I know they don't really count since we are so close to the event... but I wonder how many EPS members will agree with or possibly be even further west than the OP

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3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I just looked again. I had daw by accident. My bad. Looks like .04 which matches wxbell maps exact.

Yea we're on the fringe on everything right now. My hope is the west trend continues tomorrow getting us into the .25 qpf area. Another 50 mile shift in 24 hours and were there. It's already shifted more then that. Then we know how that back edge death band with high ratios always is friendly to us. But we have to get into the better banding not just the fringe to get that. Fringe fringe fringe. 

Have I said it enough yet?  It seems to be working. 

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