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WxWatcher007

Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

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1 minute ago, mdsnowlover said:

wow from nothing to 1-3 and your not happy

Yeah really. The trend continues which includes the EURO. We're mere miles from a warning level event!

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NW shift on the NAM for sure. Low is closer to the coast and a little slower this run. Not a huge hit or anything but the trend is your friend for now anyways.

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Looks like 18z NAM had about 1 inch for DC tonight... and then another 2/2.5 inches for wave 2. Total about 3 to 4 inches. In the blues on Instantweather.

(correct - meant to say 18z; not 12z)

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31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its a long shot but verbatim on the 12z euro h5 looks ok, especially on the Atlantic side. But yeah the overall look on the means would suggest there is absolutely no chance of a wintery event in this area.

The problem with an h5 ensemble mean at range is  it can wash out the details. For instance due to timing differences that far out on individual members plus a few members that pop a huge freaking death ridge a 5 day period that might be 3 warm days and 2 cold ones will wash out to a warm look overall. Add in the outlier members that think a super ridge the whole period and it skews it warm when looking at individual members shows a high coming across within the period. 

The other factor is it's January. Above normal h5 heights aren't going to be all that warm with a 1045 high over Montreal and a storm sliding under it. Looking at individual runs has shown the idea of high pressures sliding across to our north for a while. Probably aided by the AO going negative during the period. The overriding pattern isn't great so we still need timing help but if you put 1040 highs to our north one after another for a week and have waves coming across every 2 days the odds of timing one up aren't crazy. 

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Distinct changes to the upper level features on the 18z NAM. Ridge out west is more amplified with more jet energy along the base of the trough...yield a more vigorous shortwave. Northern branch system is further north and there is slightly better ridging off the east coast. All that lends to a system that is further north and west with more expansive precipitation shield. Toward the middle of the run it's clear that the ridging off the east coast is not strong enough for blocking and the system pulls out to the NE. Subtle changes run to run can have significant outcomes with p-type, snowfall and extent of it. My colleagues down in NWS Wakefield and Raleigh will have their hands full on this one.

Certainly possible for impacts into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. It won't be a classic coastal low, but enough to keep us interested as this unfolds.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Distinct changes to the upper level features on the 18z NAM. Ridge out west is more amplified with more jet energy along the base of the trough...yield a more vigorous shortwave. Northern branch system is further north and there is slightly better ridging off the east coast. All that lends to a system that is further north and west with more expansive precipitation shield. Toward the middle of the run it's clear that the ridging off the east coast is not strong enough for blocking and the system pulls out to the NE. Subtle changes run to run can have significant outcomes with p-type, snowfall and extent of it. My colleagues down in NWS Wakefield and Raleigh will have their hands full on this one.

Certainly possible for impacts into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. It won't be a classic coastal low, but enough to keep us interested as this unfolds.

 

 

I know it's a long shot, and probably not even worth talking about, but since you're a pro - is it even possible for this thing to bomb out on the VA coast and turn into a real snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic?  Does blocking ever appear this late i the game?  I'm perfectly okay with 1-3" of snow as the NAM is showing, but the weenie in me has higher hopes. 

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Just now, NovaTarHeel said:

I know it's a long shot, and probably not even worth talking about, but since you're a pro - is it even possible for this thing to bomb out on the VA coast and turn into a real snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic?  Does blocking ever appear this late i the game?  I'm perfectly okay with 1-3" of snow as the NAM is showing, but the weenie in me has higher hopes. 

The pattern we are in doesn't support a bombing system or a track that is most favorable to our region. Not seeing evidence of a cutoff or phasing until late in the game and the progressive nature of the upper pattern wants to force this east before it goes north. That's the way it looks now, but as we are seeing there are changes in the way the models are handing this. I can see it shift a bit more N and W with accumulating snows into southern MD, perhaps D.C, and even I-95 to BWI in our area, but I think the chances for a classic nor'easter setup that pulls snow all the way to the mountains with heavy totals is very low.

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3km NAM totals for both waves... 8 inches if you're just SE of DC... 1.5 inches if you're just NW...

 

nam3km_asnow_neus_59.png

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1 minute ago, eurojosh said:

3km NAM totals for both waves... 8 inches if you're just SE of DC... 1.5 inches if you're just NW...

 

nam3km_asnow_neus_59.png

If that's not a sharp gradient then I don't know what is...WOW!!

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1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

wow, so 25 mile shift NW and we are 6" or so for storm totals.

Some of us already are, but it's the NAM... ;)

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LWX afternoon AFD regarding wave #2:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Eyes turn to a fast moving low pressure area which will move over
Georgia Friday night and deepen off the Carolina coast Saturday
morning before heading out to sea that afternoon. Our area is on
the northern fringe of the precip...which will only be snow. While
it is still 36+ hours out we have constructed a scenario where
there will be a chance of snowfall from CHO-IAD-MTN between 09-15Z
Saturday...with a greater chance of snow over St. Mary`s County.
We have likely PopS there. We`ve seen this situation before where
even the southern half of St. Mary`s is the one place that gets
significant snowfall...and right now this seems like a similar
situation. If the scenario continues to develop along these lines
a watch would need to be issued no later than early Friday
morning. There is still some uncertainty. Stay tuned.

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4 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

3km NAM totals for both waves... 8 inches if you're just SE of DC... 1.5 inches if you're just NW...

 

nam3km_asnow_neus_59.png

The gradient is more brutal than 12z, but the heavy snow axis to our south took a big jump from 12 to 18z. I'm holding high risk to his great praise of the 3k NAM.

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The NAM usually overdoes those gradients, no? I remember one storm where it showed something like 8" in Gaithersburg and nothing in Carroll County in one of its runs.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

The gradient is more brutal than 12z, but the heavy snow axis to our south took a big jump from 12 to 18z. I'm holding high risk to his great praise of the 3k NAM.

NAM is evil to tease us like this.  If EURO continues trend...a lot of people could be surprised Sunday.  

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