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WxWatcher007

Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

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44 minutes ago, Dino said:

I keep cycling the GFS back and forth from 40hrs to 48hrs and it looks like the 12z GFS is really struggling to figure out positioning of the low pressure which pops up off the Florida coast.  The FL low shoots almost straight north as the main low moves east and once they converge it gets weird, almost doesn't seem natural with the positioning at 44hrs.  I'd expect that with REALLY warm waters off the MD coast the FL low which shoots north would influence more on the path, digging it more North East, closer to the coast or at least throwing the precip shield west a lot more. 

That's not how it can happen. By the time frame your looking at it's already game over for us. If you look at every run the last 24 hours of the EPS, gefs, and even ggem, the ones that get snow into our area with that wave do it because they have more se ridge and the whole boundary the system slides sortheast along starts out further northwest. Basically the snow starts in Tennessee and northern Alabama not central Alabama and Georgia. If the system starts out that far south we're done this isn't a bomb up the coast deal. It's taking a northeast not nne trajecyory so where it develops and where the front is will be key. The gfs and ggem have it further southeast then last nights euro. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not in this case. It's not an organized or mature cyclone until much further northeast . It's a strong wave running a boundary. There won't be CCB precip on the northwest side at our latitude. The precip shield will be a stripe and not a blotch. lol

 

9 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Yes.  It happens all the time.  typically you can expect a 50 to 100 mile expansion over the prognosticated precip field...  so your right.. if the low can shift 50 miles north and west.. with the 100 mile expansion we could easily get a solid 4 to 8 inch event....

For me to get a solid 4 to 8 inch event I think I'm gonna need more than 0.00" of measurable precip.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That's not how it can happen. By the time frame your looking at it's already game over for us. If you look at every run the last 24 hours of the EPS, gefs, and even ggem, the ones that get snow into our area with that wave do it because they have more se ridge and the whole boundary the system slides sortheast along starts out further northwest. Basically the snow starts in Tennessee and northern Alabama not central Alabama and Georgia. If the system starts out that far south we're done this isn't a bomb up the coast deal. It's taking a northeast not nne trajecyory so where it develops and where the front is will be key. The gfs and ggem have it further southeast then last nights euro. 

I think he's referring to system 1.

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11 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

Euro is 0.10" liquid for DC for event #2...0.25" contour is about 40 miles southeast....0.50" contour about 75 miles southeast...

 

11 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

I mean, just in terms of surface, 0z Euro gets measurable precip out to MRB and HGR with event 2...It's very light accumulation for immediate DC metro, but it's not really close to a total whiff either

 

11 minutes ago, H2O said:

4 to 8?  lol  not with this setup

Not trying to defend his post... but Zwyts's post about the QPF from the 00z EURO seemed to back up his point slightly... 0.50 QPF 75 miles SE...

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2 minutes ago, TrumpWx said:

Euro (much better than American models) will come in dry. DC can't buy snow - Sad! I will bring the winter weather back from Mexico. 

quality first post.  just bring it back bigly

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

quality first post.  just bring it back bigly

Oh god stop. Thinking about him is more depressing then this winter has been. 

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1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said:

 

Not sure I agree but I really like and respect Bernie Rayno. If anyone is unfamiliar his videos are great. Informative, to the point, and no spin. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Ok fellas and ladies..let's not let this devolve.   As a friendly reminder, political avatars/names are not allowed.

He was off to such a great start too.  

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 GEFS supports the OP. Folks in eastern NC should feel pretty darn good looking at the members and the snowfall mean.

If me and my son didn't both have the flu I would go visit my parents in Hertford NC. 

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Did you guys think 500mb on the GFS was moving toward Euro?  I have no credentials other than being a weenie but that trough looked as progressive. positively tilted, and suppressed as you can get.  and virtually unchanged for 3 runs now. 

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Just now, PaEasternWX said:

euro has started. expect to see a cave.

thanks. no one needs to pay attention to the run now, you know all. 

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1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said:

euro has started. expect to see a cave.

trough already negative?

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lol.. 500 mb is the map that people point to when the surface doesnt show them what they want to see,

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14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Did you guys think 500mb on the GFS was moving toward Euro?  I have no credentials other than being a weenie but that trough looked as progressive. positively tilted, and suppressed as you can get.  and virtually unchanged for 3 runs now. 

I don't see it. Very slightly sharper at the base near Memphis but otherwise no change. If you flip between 0z and 12z they look almost identical. 

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3 minutes ago, PDIII said:

lol.. 500 mb is the map that people point to when the surface doesnt show them what they want to see,

I always look at h5 first and usually if it's more then 5 days out I don't look at the surface at all.  H5 drives the surface in most cases and models do much better getting the general idea at h5 right then more meso scale surface features. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I always look at h5 first and usually if it's more then 5 days out I don't look at the surface at all.  H5 drives the surface in most cases and models do much better getting the general idea at h5 right then more meso scale surface features. 

I am not talking about you... you obviously know what you are looking at.. I am talking about the people that dont know what they are looking at and just point to the upper levels cause they are in denial.

 

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Just now, PDIII said:

I am not talking about you... you obviously know what you are looking at.. I am talking about the people that dont know what they are looking at and just point to the upper levels cause they are in denial.

 

Euro is 10mb deeper and further necessary at the surface at 72

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