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WxWatcher007

Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

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20 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

Geez, people really don't have better things to do than to gloat about the weather? Even when it has nothing to do with their region?

 

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i always found it kinda funny.  for some reason, that stuff never bothered me at all.  i don't take the weather personal like that.  i find it a lot more annoying when people troll other people's posts or make rude comments.  there's nothing fun about that.

Yeah, getting a bit tense and chippy in here...though I can understand it given the situation (disappointing for sure!).  I agree, on the one hand, it's a "who cares" situation.  But on the other, it really can grate on the nerves.  Especially, as you say, when people make personal attacks with rude comments on other people's posts.

I still remember someone, after we got screwed on that early March 2013 event, posted that image of Nelson (from the "Simpsons") saying "Ha-Ha!"  At the time I thought it was pretty dickish, but once that was all done, I actually did find it a bit amusing in hindsight.

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18z NAM and NAM nest like 1-2" Thursday night for DC and points north, but the NAM parallel (12 km, not the nest) likes northern MD and southern PA.  The NAM parallel nest is pretty meh for all.

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4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

In a winter like this, an inch or so of snow counts as getting NAM-ed!

In a winter like this, an inch counts as a BECS. Lol. 

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3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

In a winter like this, an inch counts as a BECS. Lol. 

last years winter was worse at this point....then we got a 3 foot snow lol

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Don't worry, someone will bring up the 1/6/2015 clipper.

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Newbie poster here...long time lurker...

FWIW, HM on Accuweather  feels the second wave will hit VA, MD, DC and not be as far south as modeled... mentioned model bias and personal feeling with these setups... anyway, I'm sure it's nothing more than cannon fodder but I enjoy any and all positive notions for snow.

If this isn't news worthy, please forgive me. I just love weather... especially the wintery kind! :-)

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Look at the low holding back into Northern Mehico on the 18z NAM at 78.  You know what they say about better spacing.....:)

way outside of useful, but at least it looks better....

Nut

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25 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

Yeah, getting a bit tense and chippy in here...though I can understand it given the situation (disappointing for sure!).  I agree, on the one hand, it's a "who cares" situation.  But on the other, it really can grate on the nerves.  Especially, as you say, when people make personal attacks with rude comments on other people's posts.

I still remember someone, after we got screwed on that early March 2013 event, posted that image of Nelson (from the "Simpsons") saying "Ha-Ha!"  At the time I thought it was pretty dickish, but once that was all done, I actually did find it a bit amusing in hindsight.

 

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10 minutes ago, IceCAPS said:

Newbie poster here...long time lurker...

FWIW, HM on Accuweather  feels the second wave will hit VA, MD, DC and not be as far south as modeled... mentioned model bias and personal feeling with these setups... anyway, I'm sure it's nothing more than cannon fodder but I enjoy any and all positive notions for snow.

If this isn't news worthy, please forgive me. I just love weather... especially the wintery kind! :-)

 

There are 2 HMs we know of! The HM on AccuWx tends to hype and I would not be certain of his forecasts.

The HM that gets everyone's attention here is Anthony Masiello  https://twitter.com/antmasiello although he does not post down this way often.

He speaks.. we listen! 

A gut feeling does not make a forecast, but people that know the climo and the set ups can get a feeling on things. I hope he is right. But as of now, nothing, other than his feelings, points to him being correct.

No criticism here, just a response.

Welcome to posting! Keep doing so! 

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9 minutes ago, IceCAPS said:

Newbie poster here...long time lurker...

FWIW, HM on Accuweather  feels the second wave will hit VA, MD, DC and not be as far south as modeled... mentioned model bias and personal feeling with these setups... anyway, I'm sure it's nothing more than cannon fodder but I enjoy any and all positive notions for snow.

If this isn't news worthy, please forgive me. I just love weather... especially the wintery kind! :-)

Welcome to the jungle.  You can help keep me honest when we are doing obs for winter events since you are close.  If I say SN but it's really -SN...call me out because I deserve it.

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ca somebody post a map that shows me getting the most snow? Thanks!

best i could come up w/ in a pinch

12z 012116NAM_SnowDepth_ma_f84.png

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

I cried a little bit there!

OK - Back on current system

 

fun while it lasted eh??

as some of y'all say......

 

We starve.

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9 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Image result for euro snowfall map

Please ban these archived images in active storm threads!

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Just now, Scraff said:

Any notable changes seen on GFS? I'm watching, but I have not played the compare runs game. 

Honestly, Low in Canada looks stronger which to me could mean more suppression.. But the Low placement and strength are almost identical for the Saturday thing.. so far.

 

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