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WxWatcher007

Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

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Well it appears I might be right at the edge of what has turned out to be one AGONIZING sharp cutoff. A few short miles to my east, green bands are pouring snow.

I am eking out flurries/light snow lol.

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2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Well it appears I might be right at the edge of what has turned out to be one AGONIZING sharp cutoff. A few short miles to my east, green bands are pouring snow.

I am eking out flurries/light snow lol.

at least youre going to get some, Im expecting nothing

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9z HRRR (through hour 10) - less than an inch for NW DC and to the NW (sharp cutoff)... in SE DC, 1-2 inches... and the 2-3 inch line is right on the DC boarder with Maryland. Looks like it might be snowing still for another hour or two. This is actually a slight improvement for DC from 8z but looking tough for locations NW.

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2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Well it appears I might be right at the edge of what has turned out to be one AGONIZING sharp cutoff. A few short miles to my east, green bands are pouring snow.

I am eking out flurries/light snow lol.

I'm right there with you, Jeb. A mile west of 95 in HoCo. It's teasing me man. Painful at the moment, but looks like things are moistening up. Praying anyway...

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Short range and even some of the global were overdone with this storm. Dry air from the building high to the north was always going to be the main issue. Much of the simulated model QPF was virga. Those that receive actual accumulations will be southern MD to the eastern shore. Little to nothing west of there. You have to be in banded and steady precip where lift is generated through the dendritic snow growth zone or else it will come down as pixey dust.

We were never in a position to receive much accumulation. This lays the problem of following model qpf run to run without focusing on the synoptic and mesoscale features in place and how they would impact the situation.

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16 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Short range and even some of the global were overdone with this storm. Dry air from the building high to the north was always going to be the main issue. Much of the simulated model QPF was virga. Those that receive actual accumulations will be southern MD to the eastern shore. Little to nothing west of there. You have to be in banded and steady precip where lift is generated through the dendritic snow growth zone or else it will come down as pixey dust.

We were never in a position to receive much accumulation. This lays the problem of following model qpf run to run without focusing on the synoptic and mesoscale features in place and how they would impact the situation.

Wow. What a tremendous disappointment.  Nothing for Fairfax and Loudoun. After all the models last night, a true bust. I hate this feeling. 

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2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Russia must have hacked the models to make us think we were getting snow.

:clap:

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5 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Wow. What a tremendous disappointment.  Nothing for Fairfax and Loudoun. After all the models last night, a true bust. I hate this feeling. 

 

Never really a bust. Simulated QPF into dry air was the issue and with a storm several hundred miles to our south and east. 

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5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

 

Never really a bust. Simulated QPF into dry air was the issue and with a storm several hundred miles to our south and east. 

What's your thought on any potential backbuilding trying to develop? Don't the hrrrs look decent for D.C.still for at least a little while later this a.m.?

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3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

 

Never really a bust. Simulated QPF into dry air was the issue and with a storm several hundred miles to our south and east. 

I here ya. I knew the dry air was a problem. I guess with advisories being thrown up farther west at the last few hours last night and NW shifting of most models and 11:00 weather reports of "upping totals" to 1-3, I ran with it. Ugh.....this hobby. 

But first flakes are falling in Loudoun. 7:33

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3 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

What's your thought on any potential backbuilding trying to develop? Don't the hrrrs look decent for D.C.still for at least a little while later this a.m.?

I honestly think it's done especially from DC and points west. We are relying on vorticity and weak forcing into dry air. The good stuff is well east and south.

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1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said:

I here ya. I knew the dry air was a problem. I guess with advisories being thrown up farther west at the last few hours last night and NW shifting of most models and 11:00 weather reports of "upping totals" to 1-3, I ran with it. Ugh.....this hobby. 

But first flakes are falling in Loudoun. 7:33

Wow! Just watched the roads cover in real time rom the start (7:28-7:36) and snow is light. Ok, ok....I scraped up some change, deal me back in. 

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3 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

I here ya. I knew the dry air was a problem. I guess with advisories being thrown up farther west at the last few hours last night and NW shifting of most models and 11:00 weather reports of "upping totals" to 1-3, I ran with it. Ugh.....this hobby. 

But first flakes are falling in Loudoun. 7:33

Coating to 1/2 inch perhaps from E-Loudoun to DC. Max.

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21 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Latest HRRR says shutout NW of DC, 0.05 line cutting through the district. 

Time to get in the Jeep and start driving south.  Pics soon.  

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14 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

 

Never really a bust. Simulated QPF into dry air was the issue and with a storm several hundred miles to our south and east. 

I definitely had that concern.  I've seen this type of crap before.  Overall I think it was a tough call here and there probably was no right forecast.  Predicting no snow when guidance indicated there will be upwards of 2-4" even though the bust factor was high wouldn't have been the right move.  I'd have forecasted 1-2" if I didn't end up going into IT instead of met. Lol

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3 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

Time to get in the Jeep and start driving south.  Pics soon.  

Got my jeep in nov '13.  Perfect timing for the last 3 winters.  Those things love snow.

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7 hours ago, B-Paq said:

Just wanted to take a sec and thank you guys so much for making me sound smarter than I am to my friends and coworkers.  I'm a 100% lurker, but I've learned a lot here and am glad that most of us are (hopefully) being pleasantly surprised by this one.

Ditto

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6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Coating to 1/2 inch perhaps from E-Loudoun to DC. Max.

1/4 inch on the board here in SE Loudoun.  In the last 15 minutes or so.  Light snow continuing.

 

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I think we can throw out the ridiculous Sref amounts at this point, but I still think a lot of us are going to see snow and maybe a light accumulation. Places in Southern PA already have a dusting on the ground. You have to figure we could get a nice coating to an inch or two, especially as you move from 95 toward the bay. The srefs are pretty hilarious from overnight. Still an average of about 5 inches and almost all the members are above the average. Going to be a massive fail there.

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5 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Not a total loss, I got a nice dusting. I only expected a couple inches. This busted but its not so bad

I don't feel bad. At least we weren't supposed to get a foot or more.  Sure looks like the entire storm under performed in many places. Time to enjoy warm weather again.  Lol

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