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Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

IMHO, 18z RGEM was a large move NW when you compare 06z 36 (around 5mm for DCA) to 18z 24 (around 12mm for DCA)

GFS moved the .5 line a decent amount but that's really the only notable thing. The dusting line moved further NW but not much change in the cities/burbs.

 

I'll hug whatever though. RGEM sounds good to me. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS moved the .5 line a decent amount but that's really the only notable thing. The dusting line moved further NW but not much change in the cities/burbs.

 

I'll hug whatever though. RGEM sounds good to me. 

Three more of those and imby

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Excerpt from Mount Holly AFD. Sounds fun.

Snowfall rates of 1+ per hour are possible in the warned area during the morning and early afternoon, which will result in snow accumulations even on the highways. This is when travel will be most difficult as the higher snowfall rates could make it difficult for road crews to keep up with the snow. Near-blizzard conditions are possible near the DE and southern NJ coast on Saturday with gusty northerly winds around the coastal low resulting in poor visibility under one-half mile at times. The snow will be fluffy and light, so poor visibility in blowing snow could be an issue even after the snow tapers off late in the day.

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2 minutes ago, Leesburgplow said:

Wow, GFS giving Va beach 18" with 40 mph wind gusts! Im getting ready to head down there now , should be a blast! Ill try and post some pics!

thats got to be an all time record for snow in a single storm in Va Beach if that actually verifies

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RGEM only out to 18 hours on pivotal weather but you can already see what will make the difference for the rest of the run. Look how it sharpens the vort and check out the much higher heights over our neck of the woods. 

rgem.500hv.conus.trend.gif

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, this is definitely the one for now

rgemboom.JPG

Yeah, extremely not bad!  Hard to distinguish the blue shading contours, but maybe in the 2-4" range around DC it appears (NW-SE)?

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

RGEM Kuchera ratio amount is gonna be nuts. Its at 4.8 at DCA with six hours of snow to go.

16:1, love it. 

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1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

Wow... and still snowing at this point... Capture.JPG

I didn't like Bob's map that much. Nice one!

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2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, extremely not bad!  Hard to distinguish the blue shading contours, but maybe in the 2-4" range around DC it appears (NW-SE)?

More like 4-8 in the metro area. 5-7 in DC. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Never a bad thing when one of the better meso models gives us false hope

touche'

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Perhaps that will mean a better 00z suite for tonight for us ;)

But yeah wow 18z RGEM... what a hit... Wes gets like 9" lol... IF only we could believe it... thought it is a decent meso model... wonder what Wes/high risk/ers-wxmann1 think about this run

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Just now, caviman2201 said:

Curious to hear a met's thoughts on Kuchera... does that ever get graded for accuracy and if so, how does it fare?

We've discussed it several times the last year or so. Honestly, it seems to do well with low ratio events because they are much more common around here. Not sure about higher ratio stuff. 

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