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Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

3,239 posts in this topic

Just now, stormtracker said:

What happens if the NAM really goes crazy...like .5 crazy

I'll hug it like flag pole when caught outside during a tornado

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Just now, stormtracker said:

What happens if the NAM really goes crazy...like .5 crazy

Maybe you will promise to throw DC Schmuckandria out finally. 

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3 minutes ago, soadforecaster said:

if we can get the low to form where that closed off 1016 is currently. this whole board would go crazy.

low.gif

Bad Analysis. That NC low is an artifact of the mountains. The  actual low is forming over the gulf or GA coast.

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Bad Analysis. That NC low is an artifact of the mountains. The  actual low is forming over the gulf or GA coast.

 

 

I never made any analysis. maybe I should of highlighted the key word IF for you next time.

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8 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

Trends on the HRRR are very good


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Looks like 17z trended slightly south and east with precip shield compared to 16z. 

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11 minutes ago, Z-Cast said:

Latest 3k HRRR

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-06 at 2.17.01 PM.png

        does look 'purdy, but if you do a loop, the best reflectivities seem to hit a wall as they try to come north

    a

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IMG_6750.JPG

Sea Surface Temps continue to TORCH.  I think this is why the precip shield is expanding west, or at least trying to even though the Low is positioned much further southeast.  Lots of moisture to work with.  

IMG_6642.PNG

this is 0z GFS I saved from January Second.  And this is the 12z from today for comparison.  There's got to be a chance this thing intensifies and tucks in more.  I'm still holding out till tomorrow. 

IMG_6751.PNG

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The HRRR is going to Kuchera me to an inch yet.

An inch would be a victory out here.  

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First and only call

12" RIC

10" ORF

18-24" n/c to w NC

sharp cutoff south of CLT-RDU-NC/VA border at Ocean, some places n/w CLT, RDU 10"

5-7" sw to central VA to Ocean City MD

2-4" DC to BAL (0.9" DCA of course)

may remain 2-4" to PA border as elevation compensates for storm intensity

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Just saw the Euro. Nice trend NW although gradient tightened.

I am in place at Rehoboth. Heavy snow and wind in the forecast with total accumulations 5-10". Should be fun driving home later tomorrow lol.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just saw the Euro. Nice trend NW although gradient tightened.

I am in place at Rehoboth. Heavy snow and wind in the forecast with total accumulations 5-10". Should be fun driving home later tomorrow lol.

Room for one more for a snow party?

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just saw the Euro. Nice trend NW although gradient tightened.

I am in place at Rehoboth. Heavy snow and wind in the forecast with total accumulations 5-10". Should be fun driving home later tomorrow lol.

Envy you. If it wasn't for the fact that we went away last week to lose money at Valley Forge Casino we would probably be joining you. Enjoy.

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SREF plumes mean seems to have leveled off.  After free falling from the previous high mark yesterday evening, the 15z update has the mean ever so slightly higher than the previous update.  Now 3.78 vs. 3.61 before.  At least it seems to have stabilized somewhat and not too far off the Euro, GFS, etc.

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think I have this right... 15z SREFs have DCA inside the 0.25" QPF line

Are they coming out on the vendor sites before NOAA's?

 

edit - scratch that, the plumes site is getting them before the MAG site.  Don't think it used to be that way.

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