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January Model discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

don't take it personally. i deleted it because you were quoting a one liner that was blatantly wrong. i am enforcing zero tolerance toward posting wrong info

No worries. Also noticing the NAM in the later frames hours showing a better PNA presentation, ridge out west starting to look good. Fully aware it's the NAM at 84, but hoping it's merely helping to advertise the better trends we saw with the 12z euro/eps.

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24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I've been forecasting for the SE U.S. and we have to be sort of careful on the Euro.  It really did some odd things down there from 78-90,  It really does not resemble the CMC/UKMET at all there because its a furnace for places like ATL/GSP while those douse them with snow.  Its way faster with no separation between the lead wave and the 2nd one which results in a slower cold push.  This ultimately impacts the entire solution up the coast, so I'm not if the Euro can be trusted here yet because I'm concerned the upstream situation from here in the SE/TN Valley may impact things.

Now this is a great post because its comprehensible, linear and logical. So I have to ask: if there is a Euro error is it being inested into the EPS and that's why we have a similar shift west?

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Either the Southern shortwave needs to slow down significantly or the Northern wave needs to speed up. Right now what you have on the 18z GFS is a late phase. By the time things get going, the baroclinic forcing has been pushed hundreds of miles offshore so the surface low has no choice but to head way OTS.

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I wouldn't call it crushed. A few days ago they were getting crushed on the GFS over a foot now it's like half a foot if that. At least we may get something Friday with the first wave. 

Haha. GFS has 5-10 for most of the Deep South from Atl-south Carolina. That's crushed in that area and twice as much snow then we seen this winte r

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I'm confused. Is this storm taking place Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday? Very confused.

Wave 1 is Thursday night into Friday 

 

wave 2 Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. That's if it even comes close enough to effect us at all 

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Sheared out garbage southern wave is too quick and outruns the northern wave. The trough also is too flat and doesn't dig enough. Result is a sheared out suppressed storm with no phase. The trough has to dig more and slow down the wave, or the northern stream has to be faster. There's still some time to change this for the better but it will have to be lucky timing with the different waves. A stronger first wave also hurts with the second one quick behind it. 

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6 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

Give it until tomorrow at least, by then the disturbance would of entered the northwest and models would of gotten a better sample of it. 

I'd probably give it until tomorrow 0z, if no meaningful change by then I'd say it's fairly likely it's for the fish north of Cape May or west of Nantucket.

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