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January Model discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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27 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs and Nam are more north with Saturdays event than previous runs.

GGEM was too.  All develop some sort of surface reflection off NJ.  Those little surface lows can turn these events into bigger ones.  Right now its a bit too late developing and south still to have a big impact.

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Let's not forget we have this thread for model discussion, so as not to clog the discussion/OBS thread with 240hr GGEM snowstorms....

 

with that said:

 

EPS/ GEFS disagree on event in day 7 timeframe, no Gefs members signal snow, while a surprising amount of EPS members have a decent snow event with cold in place  

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Let's not forget we have this thread for model discussion, so as not to clog the discussion/OBS thread with 240hr GGEM snowstorms....

 

with that said:

 

EPS/ GEFS disagree on event in day 7 timeframe, no Gefs members signal snow, while a surprising amount of EPS members have a decent snow event with cold in place  

CMC also has it being a snowstorm with cold being drawn in from the northeast.

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On 1/12/2017 at 3:40 PM, nesussxwx said:

Most? Even NYC didn't attain the mark of 6 or more. Literally it was specifically only LI, and that isn't most.

Don't ever use Central Park totals when quoting amounts for NYC snowfall totals. The Conservancy always under measures as did the zookeeper before them. it's what they do, they either don't give a sh!t which I think is the most likely, or they're just plain incompetent. Their measurements during the last 2 storms have been in line with everyone else at 4pm and then at 7pm and midnight they seem to not measure at all or just throw in a low figure just because no one is there then to measure or whoever is could care less..

Jan 7 storm, EWR 5.8, LGA 7.0, JFK 8.2 and KNYC 5.1.

All 4 were half an inch or so apart at 4pm and at midnight not so much. There was a definitive increase west to east from that storm so take EWR at 5.8 and LGA at 7.0 and KNYC was most likely 6.5 or so. I've sent e-mails in the past and they have corrected at times later on. For now they are ignoring this one even though the mistake is obvious, again.

They also F'd up the Jan 14 total at KNYC in the exact same pattern as they F'd up the Jan 7 storm but at this point they've worn me down through the years and I'm starting to not care.

If anyone does write NOAA at [email protected]

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