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1/5/17-1/8/17 Southern System.


John1122

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5 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

I've learned over the years that I'd rather be on the northern edge this far out regardless of climo.  We still may end up on the "losing" end but I'd bet dollars to donuts that we've yet to see a final solution.

Yeah, who knows.  Systems have come north all season and is not uncommon for that during any season actually.  But this block means business.  Either way...with the way this is shifting around, nothing is set in stone.  If forced, I would bet Euro...but again, until this is sampled well things could change and most likely will once it comes ashore. I don't necessarily buy the suppressed solutions but there is little support for anything but that....

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5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, who knows.  Systems have come north all season and is not uncommon for that during any season actually.  But this block means business.  Either way...with the way this is shifting around, nothing is set in stone.  If forced, I would bet Euro...but again, until this is sampled well things could change and most likely will once it comes ashore. I don't necessarily buy the suppressed solutions but there is little support for anything but that....

Yeah, it does bother me that the EPS keeps getting stingier for our area so a more southern solution could be right.  As you said, blocking looks pretty good so a full blown cutter looks off the table.  I would hope by 12z tomorrow we'll have a good idea of what to expect.

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The models have flipped flopped from north of us all,. To right on top of us all, to now south of most of us with the exception of a few people.  Either way to be in the running at this point in time is all we can really ask for.  I was doing some research though and this storm has the potential to be a repeat of the 1/7/88 storm that covered us all from Memphis to Knoxville and south all THe way to Birmingham.  5-8 inches covered most of that area with upwards of 10+ back into Little Rock and Oklahoma City.  I saw that and figured I would share so we can ponder all the possibilities that could play out.

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0z NAM taking pretty big steps toward the EURO tonight by 48 hours.  Guessing we see the GFS also make some fairly large steps toward a weaker solution here in an hour or so.



It sure did and it was a noticeable shift in that direction. Some people will say to not look at the NAM but the timeframe where possible separation happens and the shortwave travels through the west is within the 2-3 day timeframe. The NAM doesn't perform terribly in that range. What happens from hours 24-60 will make or break the storm for us. Will the shortwave interact with the northern stream energy and get squashed and strung out? Examples: Euro, GGEM, UKMET, and now NAM. Or will the shortwave remain separate and intact? Example: GFS for now.

I really hate to say it but the GFS is on an island on its own. As much as I want those last 3-4 runs of the GFS to be correct they are outliers unless global guidance shifts that way. I don't think the GFS will completely cave tonight but I think it will be a slow shift.

Here's the 18z GFS and 0z NAM compared and there are major differences.

1a0c1b9783a6e9ddd1bf6c6acec29a15.jpg
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I think this case is different than some others. Normally we see a northwest trend in modeling as events get closer in time. That seems to be the case when we have a well defined shortwave trough and a nice surface low. It will be hard to see any northwest shift if we lose a resemblance of a separate shortwave out west. I'm afraid that if we lose the storm now we won't be getting it back. Normally over the past few years the Euro has been the more amped model and the GFS more suppressed. They are behaving oppositely and that is a red flag to me.

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1 minute ago, 1234snow said:

114 and its gone. Light snow over Atlanta and most of SC. Precip shield never makes it into Tennessee much at all. Maybe the Coastal Carolinas can salvage a decent storm.

It could stay down there, but you'll be able to knock me over with a feather if there's not a northern recovery to this. It's rare to see winter systems track from Houston to SW Florida.  

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It could stay down there, but you'll be able to knock me over with a feather if there's not a northern recovery to this. It's rare to see winter systems track from Houston to SW Florida.  



Yeah it could. When I said the coastal areas could salvage a good storm I should of clarified that I was thinking about this run because I hadn't seen the end of it. They actually took a nice little hit around Myrtle Beach. Funny that people go there to escape but winter is going to go to the beach maybe. Actually, not a bad run at all for our southern peeps, but just not the stuff for us.

I've not given up hope at all we are still 5 days away and that is plenty of time for the better or worse. We have been in this rodeo before haha. I would much rather have a colder and more suppressed solution than a amped and rainy one.
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6 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

 


Yeah it could. When I said the coastal areas could salvage a good storm I should of clarified that I was thinking about this run because I hadn't seen the end of it. They actually took a nice little hit around Myrtle Beach. Funny that people go there to escape but winter is going to go to the beach maybe. Actually, not a bad run at all for our southern peeps, but just not the stuff for us.

I've not given up hope at all we are still 5 days away and that is plenty of time for the better or worse. We have been in this rodeo before haha. I would much rather have a colder and more suppressed solution than a amped and rainy one.

 

It could be their time but there's a reason it almost never snows way down south.  Systems almost never behave this way in the end.

 

I'll throw this in too, that also applies to the extreme GFS runs here too. I'm skeptical of any model run that shows extreme solutions.

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Ninas are known for Deep South snows.  Charleston, SC had one during one of the great Nina winters 89-90.  (That winter the cold ended after December and winter was gone.) So, it is not without precedent that it can snow in those parts.  I generally agree that a northern correction should happen given the look...but snow is a realistic possibility there based on climo.

http://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989

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