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1/5/17-1/8/17 Southern System.


John1122

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1 minute ago, st116 said:

Didn't the NAM do well in the Feb 2014 storm that dumped on east TN? I may be off on my dates. This storm isn't quite the same situation, but I believe it's similar. 

No, it and the GFS basically advertised nothing here until the last minute. 36 hours out, it basically had no snow on this side of the Apps.

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1 minute ago, st116 said:

Didn't the NAM do well in the Feb 2014 storm that dumped on east TN? I may be off on my dates. This storm isn't quite the same situation, but I believe it's similar. 

I believe you are right. I think the NAM is in its wheelhouse right now and we will have to watch the 00z run and see 

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Just now, John1122 said:

I was most stunned by that myself. I guess they see something beyond models.

Things are trending in our favor it seems based on recent runs... I still don't quite get the inconsistencies from model-to-model though. But back to 2014. It seemed every hour things just kept getting better and better. As someone pointed out recently, it is a long shot for the low to to take the path it was taking in the previous day and a half or two days. 

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From MRX: POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOULD THE TRACK DEVIATE FURTHER TO THE WEST.
 

Perhaps they are covering all their bases now, and they will trim back the western portion tomorrow morning and replace with an Advisory.  Just a guess. 

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5 minutes ago, st116 said:

Things are trending in our favor it seems based on recent runs... I still don't quite get the inconsistencies from model-to-model though. But back to 2014. It seemed every hour things just kept getting better and better. As someone pointed out recently, it is a long shot for the low to to take the path it was taking in the previous day and a half or two days. 

I don't see a trend yet...perhaps 18Z NAM is the start but we will just have to wait and see. Model inconsistencies are inherent with the solution they are trying to create. You will never get a perfect solution when you can't possibly model everything. 

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Quote

One last note, the closest Analog for this event is the January 28,
2014, winter storm that dropped 2-4 inches of snow across the
region, and created treacherous road conditions on untreated
surfaces to the subfreezing temperatures.

From MRX. I recall getting around 2 inches of snow that day, Knox to Tri got 3-5. It was frigid, temps in the 10s when the snow was falling.

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1 minute ago, Mr Bob said:

I don't see a trend yet...perhaps 18Z NAM is the start but we will just have to wait and see. Model inconsistencies are inherent with the solution they are trying to create. You will never get a perfect solution when you can't possibly model everything. 

NW movement has started to take place in recent runs (depending on the model). That is the trend I am speaking of. It hasn't been much, but it has favored our area just so slightly. It will be fun to watch either way. 

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MRX said they issued a watch to watch future model trends basically. A slight move to the west puts everyone in the Watch area in need of a warning. If that appears unlikely they will almost assuredly go to a WWA. They have a huge range on the ZFP.  Anderson Co, to my south has a forecast for tomorrow night of 1 to 5 inches of snow possible. Basically never see that kind of range.

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